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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance HICP YoY climbed to 2.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
France HICP YoY climbed to 2.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.4% from June's 2.0% reading. The reading matched the 2.4% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.96%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.4%, vs 1.64% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.38
Actual: 2.4
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (France) was reported at 2.7% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.5%, ranging from 0.4% to 2.8% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, up from the prior three at 2.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.82%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In August readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 1.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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HICP YoY - FR
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About HICP YoY — France
DEFINITION
France's HICP YoY rose to 2.700000% in August, up from July's 2.400000%, signaling a faster inflation pace. This increase marks a clear acceleration compared to the previous month’s reading. Market participants will watch for further ECB policy adjustments amid this inflation uptick. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |