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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance HICP YoY climbed to 2.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
France HICP YoY climbed to 2.8% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.3% from April's 2.5% reading. The reading matched the 2.8% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.41%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.34%, vs 0.73% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.78
Actual: 2.8
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (France) was reported at 2.8% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.8% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.14%, ranging from 0.4% to 2.8% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.7%, up from the prior three at 1.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.69%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In June readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 1.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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HICP YoY - FR
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About HICP YoY — France
DEFINITION
France's HICP YoY for May came in at 2.800000%, matching estimates and rising from April's 2.500000%, indicating accelerating inflation. The increase from April to May confirms a continued upward trend in consumer prices. Market participants will watch upcoming ECB communications closely for policy signals. Updated 6/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.