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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance HICP YoY climbed to 2.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France HICP YoY climbed to 2.4% in July 2026, up 0.4% from June's 2.0% reading. The print exceeded the 2.1% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.79%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 2.42%, vs 1.34% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.94
Actual: 2
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (France) was reported at 2.4% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.24%, ranging from 0.4% to 2.8% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.27%, down from the prior three at 2.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.72%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In July readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 1.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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HICP YoY - FR
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About HICP YoY — France
DEFINITION
France's HICP YoY for July rose to 2.40%, beating the 2.10% estimate and up from June's 2.00%. This increase signals a renewed acceleration in inflation after a prior dip, reflecting persistent price pressures. Market focus will remain on upcoming ECB policy moves amid this inflation uptick. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.95 | High |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | CPI MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |