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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Household Consumption MoM held to -0.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
France Household Consumption MoM held to -0.5% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.0%. Over the past 3 months, Household Consumption MoM averaged 0.0%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Household Consumption MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.46 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Household Consumption MoM (France) was reported at -0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.6%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.1%, ranging from -1.4% to 0.5% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.59%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.47%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Household Consumption MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.46%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Nov 5) and Balance of Trade (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Household Consumption MoM - FR
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About Household Consumption MoM — France
DEFINITION
Household Consumption MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the amount of goods and services purchased by households in a given month. It provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic activity. A positive change in this indicator indicates an increase in consumer confidence and a potential boost to economic growth, while a negative change may signal a decrease in consumer spending and potential economic slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors as it can impact financial markets and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Low |
| 06:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.33 | High |