Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Balance of Trade climbed to -4.9B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Hong Kong Balance of Trade climbed to -4.9B in July 2026, released August 2026, up 47.1B from June's -52B reading. The print exceeded the -46.2B consensus by 41.3B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -44.07B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -41.9B, vs -55.8B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-4.9
Actual
-46.2
Consensus
-52
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±21.03 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -46.57
Actual: -4.9
Error: -41.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Hong Kong) was reported at -4.90 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -46.20 billion by 41.30 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -52.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -36.04 billion, ranging from -64.20 billion to -4.90 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -33.70 billion, up from the prior three at -35.93 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 18.06 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 15.53 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -20.27 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 21.03 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - HK
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -4.9 B, consensus -46.2 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -52 B. Before that (May 2026): -44.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - HK Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | HK | Industrial Production YoY | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.40 | Low |