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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Balance of Trade fell to -52B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Hong Kong Balance of Trade fell to -52B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 7.8B from May's -44.2B reading. The reading missed the -45B consensus by 7B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -36.85B, vs -55.8B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-52
Actual
-45
Consensus
-44.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±20.61 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -43.8
Actual: -52
Error: +8.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/HKD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Hong Kong) was reported at -52.00 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -45.00 billion by 7.00 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -44.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -39.29 billion, ranging from -64.20 billion to -14.10 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -41.90 billion, down from the prior three at -39.40 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.44 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 15.91 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -55.53 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 20.61 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - HK
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About Balance of Trade — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -52 B, consensus -45 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -44.2 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -29.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.78) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - HK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | HK | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | -0.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | -0.45 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 0.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | HK | Retail Sales YoY | 4.8 | 3.4 | 6.40 | Low | |