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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndonesiaIndonesia Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 10.5% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Indonesia Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 10.5% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 2.87% from February's 13.37% reading. The print exceeded the 9.8% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.99%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 7.24%, vs 12.81% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
10.5
Actual
9.8
Consensus
13.37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2025
Predicted: 5.36
Actual: 8
Error: -2.64
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/IDR | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Indonesia) was reported at 5.83% in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.22%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.57%, ranging from 1.11% to 18.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 8.81%, down from the prior three at 8.91%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.65%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.1%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with USD/IDR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - ID
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Indonesia
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.83 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 7.22 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 10.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ID Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ID | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 47.4 | 46.70 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | -0.79 | -1.23 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.1 | -0.24 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | 2.77 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 0.25 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 04:00 | ID | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | 2.91 | Medium | |
| 04:00 | ID | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Low | |