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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -17.1% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Ireland GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -17.1% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 19.3% from December's 2.2% reading. The reading missed the -6.0% consensus by 11.1%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 63 months.
Latest Release
-17.1
Actual
-6
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -6
Actual: -17.1
Error: +11.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Ireland) was reported at -17.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6% by 11.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.46%, ranging from -17.1% to 20% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.73%, down from the prior three at 12.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.85%) is higher than the prior year (σ 8.23%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged -0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.48%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -17.1 %, consensus -6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -6 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.