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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to -0.4% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Ireland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to -0.4% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 12.8% from March's -13.2% reading. The print exceeded the -1.6% consensus by 1.2%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-1.6
Consensus
-13.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.84 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: -0.4
Error: +1.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Ireland) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.6% by 1.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -13.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.16%, ranging from -17.1% to 10.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.37%, down from the prior three at 5.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.71%) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.38%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.84%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1.6 %, consensus -1.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -17.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Residential Property Prices YoY | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Residential Property Prices MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.70 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Balance of Trade | 5.3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.85 | Low |