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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to -1.6% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Ireland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to -1.6% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 11.4% from March's -13.0% reading. The print exceeded the -6.6% consensus by 5.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 9.1%. The reading is in the 19th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.6
Actual
-6.6
Consensus
-13
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.84 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -12.15
Actual: -1.6
Error: -10.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Ireland) was reported at -1.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -6.6% by 5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -13%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.66%, ranging from -17.1% to 17.1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -5.5%, down from the prior three at 8.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 8.46%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 7.38%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.84%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1.6 %, consensus -6.6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -17.1 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.25 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.20 | Low |