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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.9% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Ireland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.9% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 4.3% from June's -0.4% reading. The print exceeded the 2.0% consensus by 1.9%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
2
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.6
Actual: 3.9
Error: -1.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Ireland) was reported at 3.9% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2% by 1.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.21%, ranging from -17.1% to 10.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.63%, up from the prior three at -3.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.97%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.94%). In October readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.48%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IE
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.9 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:01 | IE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | 55 | 55.00 | Low | |
| 23:01 | IE | Consumer Confidence | 61.1 | 60 | 60.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 11:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:01 | IE | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.1 | 53.4 | 53.75 | Low | |
| 11:00 | IE | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 5.1 | 5.10 | Low | |