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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -12.1% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Ireland Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to -12.1% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, down 7.9% from December's -4.2% reading. The reading missed the -2.0% consensus by 10.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.04%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-12.1
Actual
-2
Consensus
-4.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.05 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -2
Actual: -12.1
Error: +10.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Ireland) was reported at -12.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2% by 10.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -4.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.29%, ranging from -12.1% to 7.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -5.5%, down from the prior three at -0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.05%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IE
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Ireland
DEFINITION
Ireland's Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -12.100000% in Q1 2026, missing the -2.000000% estimate and deepening from Q4 2025's -4.200000%. This sharp decline signals a severe economic contraction compared to the prior quarter. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank responses amid this downturn. Updated 6/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -12.1 %, consensus -2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): -3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.