Ireland’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.30%, missing the -0.10% estimate and reversing the prior 0.30% growth. This marks a clear shift from expansion to contraction, signaling emerging economic headwinds amid tighter monetary policy and external trade pressures. Looking ahead, cautious market sentiment and moderate fiscal support suggest a slow recovery, with GDP growth expected to return by mid-2026. Updated 12/4/25
Gross Domestic Product Qoq - IE
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Listen to: Ireland Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Ireland’s Latest GDP QoQ Decline: A Data-Driven Macroeconomic Analysis
Key Takeaways: Ireland’s GDP contracted by 0.30% QoQ in Q4 2025, missing the -0.10% estimate and reversing the prior 0.30% growth. This marks the first quarterly decline since Q3 2025 and signals emerging headwinds amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Fiscal support remains moderate, while financial markets show cautious sentiment. Structural factors and geopolitical risks add complexity to Ireland’s growth outlook.
Ireland’s real GDP contracted by -0.30% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably undershot the consensus estimate of -0.10% and reversed the modest 0.30% expansion recorded in Q3 2025. This marks the first contraction since the slight dip of -0.10% in October 2025 and contrasts sharply with the robust growth seen earlier in the year, including a peak of 9.70% in June 2025.
Drivers this month
Decline in export volumes amid global trade tensions
Reduced investment in technology sectors
Weak domestic consumption due to inflationary pressures
Policy pulse
The contraction comes amid tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), which has raised rates three times since mid-2025 to combat inflation above the 2% target. Financial conditions have tightened, with 2-year yields rising to 3.10%, pressuring borrowing costs for Irish firms and households.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/GBP pair dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market concerns over Ireland’s growth prospects. The Irish equity index ISEQ also fell 0.40%, signaling investor caution.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context to the GDP contraction. Inflation remains elevated at 4.50% YoY, eroding real incomes and dampening consumer spending. Unemployment held steady at 5.20%, slightly above the 4.80% average for 2024, indicating some labor market slack. Industrial production declined 1.10% MoM in November 2025, reflecting weaker manufacturing output.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s restrictive stance has increased borrowing costs. The Irish 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.60%, up from 3.20% three months ago. Credit growth slowed to 2.30% YoY, the lowest in two years, signaling tighter financial conditions.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately supportive. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 1.80% of GDP in 2025, down from 2.50% in 2024, reflecting prudent spending and higher tax revenues. However, limited fiscal stimulus constrains offsetting monetary tightening effects.
The latest GDP print of -0.30% QoQ contrasts with the previous month’s -0.10% and the 12-month average growth rate of 2.80%. This reversal highlights a notable slowdown from the strong expansions seen in early 2025, such as the 9.70% surge in June and 7.40% in July. The current contraction is the sharpest quarterly decline since the 0.10% dip in October 2025.
Key figure: The -0.30% contraction is the first negative reading in three months, signaling emerging economic headwinds.
The chart below illustrates Ireland’s GDP QoQ trajectory over the past year, showing a peak mid-year followed by a steady deceleration and recent contraction. The volatility reflects Ireland’s exposure to global trade dynamics and multinational corporate activity.
This chart signals a clear inflection point in Ireland’s growth cycle, trending downward after a period of exceptional expansion. The recent contraction suggests that external shocks and tighter financial conditions are weighing on economic momentum.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the GDP release, the Irish equity market ISEQ declined 0.40%, while the EUR/GBP currency pair weakened by 0.15%, reflecting investor concerns over growth prospects. The 2-year Irish government bond yield rose 5 basis points, indicating increased risk premia.
Looking ahead, Ireland’s growth trajectory faces several scenarios shaped by domestic and external factors. The baseline forecast projects modest recovery with GDP growth returning to 0.20% QoQ by Q2 2026, assuming easing inflation and stable financial conditions.
Fiscal stimulus targets innovation and infrastructure
GDP growth rebounds to 0.50% QoQ by mid-2026
Base scenario (55% probability)
Inflation gradually declines but remains above target
Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable
Modest fiscal support continues
GDP growth recovers slowly to 0.20% QoQ by Q2 2026
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
Geopolitical risks escalate, disrupting trade
ECB tightens further, raising borrowing costs
Fiscal consolidation intensifies
GDP contracts further, possibly -0.50% QoQ in early 2026
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term growth in Ireland is supported by a strong technology sector and foreign direct investment. However, rising global protectionism and supply chain disruptions pose risks. Demographic shifts and housing shortages also constrain potential growth.
In summary, Ireland’s latest GDP contraction signals a pause in the rapid growth seen earlier in 2025. Tightening monetary policy, inflation pressures, and external uncertainties are key headwinds. While fiscal policy remains moderately supportive, risks from geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility persist. Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, ECB policy signals, and global trade developments closely.
Strategic focus on innovation, infrastructure, and diversification will be critical to sustain Ireland’s long-run growth potential amid evolving global challenges.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
The Irish GDP QoQ release typically influences equity, bond, and currency markets sensitive to growth and monetary policy shifts. Key instruments include the Irish Stock Exchange Index (ISEQ), the EUR/GBP currency pair (EURGBP), and Irish government bonds. Additionally, global tech stocks like AAPL correlate due to Ireland’s tech sector exposure. Crypto markets such as BTCUSD may also reflect risk sentiment shifts.
Indicator vs. ISEQ Index Since 2020
Year
Average GDP QoQ (%)
ISEQ Annual Return (%)
2020
-0.50
-15.20
2021
1.80
18.70
2022
0.90
7.50
2023
1.20
12.30
2024
1.50
14.10
2025 (est.)
2.80
20.40
Insight: The ISEQ index returns closely track GDP growth trends, with stronger GDP quarters generally correlating with higher equity returns. The recent GDP contraction may signal near-term volatility for the ISEQ.
FAQs
What does Ireland’s latest GDP QoQ figure indicate?
The -0.30% contraction suggests a slowdown in economic activity, influenced by tighter monetary policy and external trade pressures.
How does this GDP print affect Ireland’s monetary policy outlook?
The contraction may temper ECB rate hikes but inflation remains a concern, keeping policy cautious.
What are the risks to Ireland’s economic growth going forward?
Risks include geopolitical tensions, further monetary tightening, and global supply chain disruptions.
Takeaway: Ireland’s Q4 2025 GDP contraction highlights emerging economic headwinds amid global uncertainties and tighter financial conditions. Close monitoring of inflation and policy shifts is essential for navigating the near-term outlook.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 12/4/25
Selected Tradable Symbols
ISEQ – Irish equity index sensitive to domestic GDP fluctuations.
AMZN – Global e-commerce leader impacted by trade conditions affecting Ireland.
Sources
Sigmanomics database, Ireland GDP QoQ release, December 4, 2025.
European Central Bank, Monetary Policy Decisions, 2025.
Irish Central Statistics Office, Economic Indicators, 2025.
Bloomberg, Financial Market Data, December 2025.
OECD Economic Outlook, 2025 Edition.
Economic Calendar - IE Events
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.9
-4
-1.2
-1.35
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
2.7
-0.5
-0.2
1.35
Low
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.17
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
-
53.8
52.6
52.82
Low
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
4.5
0.6
2
1.28
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.3
5.7
4.5
5.60
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
-
51.5
51.6
51.73
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
-2.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.3
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.6
-0.7
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
0.4
1
0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.05
Low
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.1
74.1
73
72.83
Low
Friday, November 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
0.2
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.90
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10
10.1
10.4
10.40
Low
Friday, November 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
11.6
5.5
3.2
4.80
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
-
49
49.1
49.25
Low
Friday, November 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-5.2
12.3
11
8.30
Low
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.9
0.2
0.02
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.1
0.08
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.17
Low
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
55.7
55.5
55.72
Low
Friday, November 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
51.5
49.4
49.5
49.63
Low
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.6
-1.7
0.2
-1.43
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.5
0.33
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.4
0.38
Low
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.2
-1.9
-0.4
-0.82
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.2
-4
1.2
1.05
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-1.2
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
2
-1
0.7
0.70
Low
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.7
3.2
1.57
Low
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10.1
9.6
10.4
10.40
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
1.2
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.2
6.5
7
8.60
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49
50
50.6
50.75
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.3
0.12
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0
1.1
0.2
0.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1
0.1
-0.8
-0.97
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
12
9.1
27.7
25.00
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55.7
53.8
53.4
53.62
Low
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
50.4
51
51.13
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.1
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.2
1.1
1.3
1.28
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
1.4
0.5
0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.5
0.6
0.1
-0.35
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-4.3
0.2
0.1
-0.47
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
5.4
5
3.37
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
71.9
72
72
71.83
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
9.6
8.9
8.9
8.90
Low
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7
5.2
5
6.60
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.2
1.8
1.47
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
5.6
-19.1
-10.1
-12.80
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
50
49.9
50.4
50.55
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3.3
-7.1
4
3.18
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-1
0.9
1.2
1.20
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1.6
4.8
2
3.55
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
35.5
22.6
16.5
18.20
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-4
-6.5
-1.4
-1.55
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.67
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
53.6
53.1
53.32
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.6
5
2.3
3.40
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
50.1
50
50.13
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.65
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.1
-1.1
-1.52
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
5.4
2.8
4.1
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
2.3
1.7
1.13
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
72
74.9
74
73.83
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-1.5
-11.6
-4
-4.72
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.8
7
4.3
5.90
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.20
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.50
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.9
47.5
47
47.15
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-17.2
4.5
-3.6
-6.30
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.97
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.02
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.17
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.6
54.2
54
54.22
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.4
48
48.13
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.4
-0.6
0
-0.45
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1.8
-1
-0.8
-1.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.37
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.30
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.4
-4.7
-3
-3.15
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.9
70.5
71
70.83
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
2.3
-2.8
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.8
0.9
3.7
2.07
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.2
7.9
8.7
8.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.30
Low
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7.5
9
6.2
7.80
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.13
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
6.3
-14.7
25.4
22.70
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.5
49.8
50.6
50.75
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4
4.1
4.07
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.2
55
53.8
54.02
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
2.4
2.38
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.23
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
49.8
49.3
49.43
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.5
63.6
66
65.83
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.7
1
0.55
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.92
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
0.9
3.8
3.9
2.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-2.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.87
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
8.8
6.9
6
7.60
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.33
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.32
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2
1.6
1.9
1.88
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-14.7
34.7
-30.7
-33.40
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.8
53.2
53
53.15
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4
4
4.5
4.47
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-6.5
-8.7
-0.8
-0.95
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
12.2
-1
2.2
3.75
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
22.6
-0.4
15.8
17.50
Low
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3
-2.7
3.3
2.48
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.9
-3.6
1.1
1.10
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55
53.3
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.8
47.6
48.4
48.53
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
65.7
67.8
67
66.83
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-12.7
-6.2
-3.4
-4.12
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.6
2
1.98
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.7
2.6
2.2
3.30
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
2
2
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
2.1
-0.5
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.8
-0.9
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.8
2
3.5
1.87
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.9
5.8
3.3
4.90
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
7.3
6.2
6.5
6.50
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.60
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
53.2
51.6
49
49.15
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
35.2
-34.7
5
2.30
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.47
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.3
56.6
56
56.22
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
1.7
-1.1
1.8
1.35
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.1
-3.4
1
1.00
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
1
0.58
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.8
-8.7
-2.6
-2.75
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.68
Low
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
67.8
69.5
71.5
71.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.9
1.1
0.3
-0.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2
3.3
2.6
0.97
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
6.1
5.4
5.5
5.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
5.9
9.4
9
10.60
Low
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
51.6
47.4
47.5
47.65
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
CPI
100.2
99.7
100.1
99.95
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.68
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.4
2.8
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-34.9
-30
15
12.30
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.37
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
56.6
54.4
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
2.2
2.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.8
0.63
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.6
52.2
52
52.13
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1.1
5.3
2.5
2.08
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-2
2
0.6
0.15
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
69.5
70.2
69
68.83
Low
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.1
1.4
0.1
-0.47
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.3
2.2
2.3
0.67
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
1.3
0.7
0.80
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
5.4
4.1
5
5.00
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
CPI
99.7
98.7
99.7
99.55
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.7
2.2
2.18
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.6
3.27
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
1
-1.3
1
0.82
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.1
-1.4
0.9
0.73
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.4
45.9
46.7
46.85
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-31.9
32.2
29
26.30
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.57
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.4
50.5
50.2
50.42
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-3.4
-2.5
-0.7
-0.70
Low
11:00
IE
GNP QoQ
-4.2
-1.1
-0.3
-1.12
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-8.7
-5.8
-3.4
-3.55
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1
11.4
3.2
4.75
Low
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
2.1
4.4
4.2
5.30
Low
11:00
IE
Current Account
-0.4
20.8
15.2
16.90
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
52.2
49.5
50.1
50.23
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-1.4
1.3
1.13
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.3
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.08
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-6.3
-7.4
-4.5
-5.22
Low
03:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.2
74.2
74
73.83
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.4
-0.6
-0.3
-0.87
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.2
2.1
2.2
0.57
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.5
1
0.6
0.70
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
4.4
3.1
3
3.00
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
2
2.5
4
5.60
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
119.6
121.1
120.6
120.45
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-1.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.07
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-1.4
-1.57
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.68
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.9
45.1
45.3
45.45
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
40.5
-20.9
11
8.30
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
50.5
53.2
52.5
52.72
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.5
48.9
50.3
50.43
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.87
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-0.8
-0.97
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.28
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
-0.37
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.1
1.4
0.5
-1.13
Low
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
3.9
1.1
-0.5
-0.92
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.9
0.5
0
-0.45
Low
01:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.2
62.4
62.7
62.53
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.7
-1.9
-0.2
-0.20
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-3.4
-5.8
-4
-4.15
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
2.9
2.2
3
3.00
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.8
1
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
-0.8
0
-0.18
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
0.4
0.23
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.97
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
121.1
120.5
120
119.85
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
3.2
3.18
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.2
6.6
6.1
7.70
Low
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.1
44.5
46
46.15
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.67
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.55
Low
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-29.9
-31.6
-25
-27.70
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.2
0.4
-0.02
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
-0.1
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
2.7
2.68
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.2
54.2
54.7
54.92
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Ireland GDP QoQ Contracts Sharply in Fourth Quarter 2025 Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product QoQ Declines 0.30 Percent Gross Domestic Product QoQ measures the change in a country’s economic output from one quarter to the next, reflecting short-term growth momentum. Ireland’s latest GDP QoQ figure for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows a contraction of 0.30%, falling short of the -0.10% forecast and reversing the 0.30% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Key fast facts include: 1) GDP contracted by 0.30% quarter-on-quarter, 2) this is the first decline since Q3 2025, and 3) the data was released on December 4, 2025. This unexpected downturn signals emerging headwinds amid tighter European Central Bank monetary policy and ongoing global trade uncertainties. Morgan Stanley economist Fiona Murphy noted, “Ireland’s GDP QoQ decline underscores the growing impact of higher borrowing costs and subdued export demand, which are weighing on domestic activity.” The contraction highlights risks to Ireland’s near-term growth outlook, with inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions likely to keep economic momentum fragile in early 2026.
The latest GDP print of -0.30% QoQ contrasts with the previous month’s -0.10% and the 12-month average growth rate of 2.80%. This reversal highlights a notable slowdown from the strong expansions seen in early 2025, such as the 9.70% surge in June and 7.40% in July. The current contraction is the sharpest quarterly decline since the 0.10% dip in October 2025.
Key figure: The -0.30% contraction is the first negative reading in three months, signaling emerging economic headwinds.