Ireland’s Gross Domestic Product YoY grew 10.80%, slightly beating the 10.50% estimate but down sharply from 17.20% previously, signaling continued expansion albeit at a moderated pace. The 6.40 percentage point decline reflects easing external demand and tighter monetary conditions, with growth remaining robust above 50% expansion threshold. Looking ahead, markets will focus on ECB policy moves and geopolitical risks that could temper Ireland’s forecasted 7-9% growth in 2026. Updated 12/4/25
Gross Domestic Product Yoy - IE
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Listen to: Ireland Gross Domestic Product YoY
Ireland’s Latest GDP YoY Growth: A Moderated Yet Robust Expansion
Ireland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 10.80% YoY in the latest release, slightly above expectations but well below the 17.20% recorded three months ago. This moderation reflects easing external demand and tighter monetary conditions. Fiscal support remains steady, but geopolitical risks and global financial market volatility pose downside risks. Structural shifts toward technology and pharmaceuticals continue to underpin growth. Forward-looking scenarios suggest a base case of 7-9% growth in 2026, with risks skewed to the downside amid global uncertainties.
The latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY reading for Ireland (IE) came in at 10.80% for the period ending December 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure slightly exceeded the consensus estimate of 10.50% but marked a significant slowdown from the 17.20% growth recorded in September 2025. The deceleration signals a cooling phase following a period of extraordinary expansion driven by strong export performance and multinational corporate activity.
Drivers this month
Export growth slowed but remained positive, contributing approximately 0.60 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth.
Domestic consumption added 0.30 pp, supported by steady wage growth and employment gains.
Investment growth moderated, contributing 0.20 pp amid cautious business sentiment.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Ireland’s monetary policy stance remains restrictive, with the ECB’s key interest rate at 4.50%, aiming to temper inflationary pressures. The GDP growth rate remains above the Eurozone average, but the moderation aligns with the central bank’s inflation target of 2%. Fiscal policy continues to provide moderate stimulus, with a government budget deficit forecasted at 1.80% of GDP for 2025.
Market lens
Following the GDP release, the EUR/GBP currency pair appreciated by 0.15%, reflecting confidence in Ireland’s economic resilience. Irish government bond yields on the 10-year tenor rose by 5 basis points, signaling modest inflation expectations. The ISEQ index showed a 0.40% uptick within the first hour, led by technology and pharmaceutical sectors.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside GDP growth reveals a nuanced picture of Ireland’s economy. Inflation remains contained at 3.10% YoY, down from 3.80% six months ago. Unemployment stands at 4.20%, near historic lows, supporting consumer spending. Wage growth averaged 3.50% YoY, sustaining household income gains.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) tightening cycle has led to higher borrowing costs. The Irish banking sector reports a 1.20% increase in loan defaults, reflecting tighter credit conditions. The effective lending rate for businesses rose to 3.90%, up from 3.40% six months prior.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains mildly expansionary, with government spending increasing by 4.50% YoY, focused on infrastructure and social programs. The budget deficit narrowed from 2.30% of GDP in 2024 to an estimated 1.80% in 2025, reflecting improved tax revenues amid economic growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global trade tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on export growth. Brexit-related uncertainties persist, especially regarding Northern Ireland trade arrangements. Additionally, energy price volatility remains a risk, though Ireland’s diversified energy mix mitigates direct impacts.
The 10.80% GDP YoY growth in December 2025 marks a clear slowdown from the 17.20% recorded in September 2025 and is slightly above the 12-month average of 13.10%. This deceleration reflects a normalization after a period of outsized gains driven by multinational corporations and export surges.
Key figure: The 6.40 percentage point drop from the previous quarter is the largest quarterly decline since early 2024, signaling a shift from rapid expansion to steady growth.
Sectoral contributions reveal that pharmaceuticals and technology exports remain the backbone of growth, though their momentum has eased. Domestic demand components, including consumption and investment, have shown resilience but are unlikely to offset external headwinds fully.
This chart highlights Ireland’s transition from a hyper-growth phase to a more sustainable expansion. The moderation suggests that while the economy remains robust, it is adjusting to tighter financial conditions and global uncertainties. Investors should watch for signs of stabilization or further deceleration in coming quarters.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.20% post-release, reflecting cautious sentiment amid slower growth. The Irish 10-year bond yield rose modestly by 5 basis points, indicating inflation expectations remain anchored but with some risk premium.
Looking ahead, Ireland’s GDP growth trajectory faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The base case scenario forecasts 7-9% YoY growth in 2026, driven by continued export strength and domestic demand. Bullish scenarios (15% probability) envision a rebound to double-digit growth if global trade conditions improve and fiscal stimulus is enhanced. Bearish scenarios (25% probability) involve a sharper slowdown to 4-6% growth due to prolonged geopolitical tensions, tighter credit, or energy shocks.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term growth remains anchored in Ireland’s competitive advantages in technology, pharmaceuticals, and foreign direct investment. The government’s focus on digital infrastructure and green energy transition supports sustainable growth. However, demographic challenges and housing supply constraints could temper potential output.
Policy pulse
The ECB’s monetary policy will remain a key determinant. Any pivot toward easing could boost investment and consumption. Fiscal policy adjustments, particularly in tax incentives for innovation, will also influence growth dynamics.
Market lens
Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to GDP updates. Equity markets, especially the ISEQ, may react positively to signs of stabilization, while bond markets will monitor inflation and policy signals closely.
In conclusion, Ireland’s latest GDP YoY growth of 10.80% reflects a moderated but still robust expansion. The economy is transitioning from extraordinary growth to a steadier pace amid tighter monetary policy and external uncertainties. Structural strengths in key sectors provide a solid foundation, but risks from geopolitical tensions and financial conditions warrant caution. Policymakers and investors should prepare for a range of outcomes, balancing optimism with vigilance.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY
GDP releases often trigger notable movements in equity, currency, and bond markets. For Ireland, key markets include the ISEQ equity index, EUR/USD forex pair, and Irish government bonds. Additionally, technology and pharmaceutical stocks listed on the Irish exchange tend to be sensitive to GDP trends due to their economic significance.
EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair reacts to Ireland’s economic data as part of the Eurozone.
CRH – A major Irish multinational in building materials, sensitive to domestic investment trends.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment linked to macroeconomic data.
EURGBP – The euro-sterling pair is influenced by Ireland’s economic outlook amid Brexit-related trade concerns.
Insight: Since 2020, Ireland’s GDP growth and the ISEQ index have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.72). Periods of accelerated GDP growth coincide with ISEQ rallies, underscoring the index’s sensitivity to economic fundamentals.
FAQs
What does the latest Ireland GDP YoY figure indicate?
The 10.80% YoY growth indicates a strong but slowing economy, reflecting easing export momentum and tighter monetary policy.
How does Ireland’s GDP growth compare historically?
It is lower than the 17.20% peak in September 2025 but remains above the 12-month average of 13.10%, showing sustained expansion.
What are the main risks to Ireland’s GDP outlook?
Key risks include geopolitical tensions, tighter credit conditions, and energy price volatility, which could slow growth below the base case.
Takeaway: Ireland’s economy is shifting from rapid expansion to steady growth, supported by strong fundamentals but facing significant external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
ISEQ – Ireland’s main equity index, highly sensitive to GDP fluctuations. EURUSD – Forex pair reflecting Eurozone economic data including Ireland. CRH – Key Irish multinational impacted by domestic investment trends. BTCUSD – Crypto asset reflecting global risk sentiment tied to macro data. EURGBP – Currency pair influenced by Ireland’s economic outlook amid Brexit effects.
Economic Calendar - IE Events
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.9
-4
-1.2
-1.35
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
2.7
-0.5
-0.2
1.35
Low
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.17
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
-
53.8
52.6
52.82
Low
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
4.5
0.6
2
1.28
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.3
5.7
4.5
5.60
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
-
51.5
51.6
51.73
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
-2.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.3
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.6
-0.7
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
0.4
1
0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.05
Low
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.1
74.1
73
72.83
Low
Friday, November 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
0.2
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.90
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10
10.1
10.4
10.40
Low
Friday, November 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
11.6
5.5
3.2
4.80
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
-
49
49.1
49.25
Low
Friday, November 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-5.2
12.3
11
8.30
Low
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.9
0.2
0.02
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.1
0.08
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.17
Low
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
55.7
55.5
55.72
Low
Friday, November 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
51.5
49.4
49.5
49.63
Low
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.6
-1.7
0.2
-1.43
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.5
0.33
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.4
0.38
Low
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.2
-1.9
-0.4
-0.82
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.2
-4
1.2
1.05
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-1.2
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
2
-1
0.7
0.70
Low
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.7
3.2
1.57
Low
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10.1
9.6
10.4
10.40
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
1.2
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.2
6.5
7
8.60
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49
50
50.6
50.75
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.3
0.12
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0
1.1
0.2
0.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1
0.1
-0.8
-0.97
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
12
9.1
27.7
25.00
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55.7
53.8
53.4
53.62
Low
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
50.4
51
51.13
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.1
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.2
1.1
1.3
1.28
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
1.4
0.5
0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.5
0.6
0.1
-0.35
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-4.3
0.2
0.1
-0.47
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
5.4
5
3.37
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
71.9
72
72
71.83
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
9.6
8.9
8.9
8.90
Low
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7
5.2
5
6.60
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.2
1.8
1.47
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
5.6
-19.1
-10.1
-12.80
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
50
49.9
50.4
50.55
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3.3
-7.1
4
3.18
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-1
0.9
1.2
1.20
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1.6
4.8
2
3.55
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
35.5
22.6
16.5
18.20
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-4
-6.5
-1.4
-1.55
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.67
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
53.6
53.1
53.32
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.6
5
2.3
3.40
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
50.1
50
50.13
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.65
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.1
-1.1
-1.52
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
5.4
2.8
4.1
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
2.3
1.7
1.13
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
72
74.9
74
73.83
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-1.5
-11.6
-4
-4.72
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.8
7
4.3
5.90
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.20
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.50
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.9
47.5
47
47.15
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-17.2
4.5
-3.6
-6.30
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.97
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.02
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.17
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.6
54.2
54
54.22
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.4
48
48.13
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.4
-0.6
0
-0.45
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1.8
-1
-0.8
-1.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.37
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.30
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.4
-4.7
-3
-3.15
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.9
70.5
71
70.83
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
2.3
-2.8
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.8
0.9
3.7
2.07
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.2
7.9
8.7
8.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.30
Low
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7.5
9
6.2
7.80
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.13
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
6.3
-14.7
25.4
22.70
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.5
49.8
50.6
50.75
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4
4.1
4.07
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.2
55
53.8
54.02
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
2.4
2.38
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.23
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
49.8
49.3
49.43
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.5
63.6
66
65.83
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.7
1
0.55
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.92
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
0.9
3.8
3.9
2.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-2.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.87
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
8.8
6.9
6
7.60
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.33
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.32
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2
1.6
1.9
1.88
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-14.7
34.7
-30.7
-33.40
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.8
53.2
53
53.15
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4
4
4.5
4.47
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-6.5
-8.7
-0.8
-0.95
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
12.2
-1
2.2
3.75
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
22.6
-0.4
15.8
17.50
Low
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3
-2.7
3.3
2.48
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.9
-3.6
1.1
1.10
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55
53.3
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.8
47.6
48.4
48.53
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
65.7
67.8
67
66.83
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-12.7
-6.2
-3.4
-4.12
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.6
2
1.98
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.7
2.6
2.2
3.30
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
2
2
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
2.1
-0.5
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.8
-0.9
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.8
2
3.5
1.87
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.9
5.8
3.3
4.90
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
7.3
6.2
6.5
6.50
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.60
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
53.2
51.6
49
49.15
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
35.2
-34.7
5
2.30
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.47
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.3
56.6
56
56.22
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
1.7
-1.1
1.8
1.35
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.1
-3.4
1
1.00
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
1
0.58
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.8
-8.7
-2.6
-2.75
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.68
Low
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
67.8
69.5
71.5
71.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.9
1.1
0.3
-0.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2
3.3
2.6
0.97
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
6.1
5.4
5.5
5.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
5.9
9.4
9
10.60
Low
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
51.6
47.4
47.5
47.65
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
CPI
100.2
99.7
100.1
99.95
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.68
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.4
2.8
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-34.9
-30
15
12.30
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.37
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
56.6
54.4
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
2.2
2.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.8
0.63
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.6
52.2
52
52.13
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1.1
5.3
2.5
2.08
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-2
2
0.6
0.15
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
69.5
70.2
69
68.83
Low
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.1
1.4
0.1
-0.47
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.3
2.2
2.3
0.67
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
1.3
0.7
0.80
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
5.4
4.1
5
5.00
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
CPI
99.7
98.7
99.7
99.55
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.7
2.2
2.18
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.6
3.27
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
1
-1.3
1
0.82
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.1
-1.4
0.9
0.73
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.4
45.9
46.7
46.85
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-31.9
32.2
29
26.30
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.57
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.4
50.5
50.2
50.42
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-3.4
-2.5
-0.7
-0.70
Low
11:00
IE
GNP QoQ
-4.2
-1.1
-0.3
-1.12
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-8.7
-5.8
-3.4
-3.55
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1
11.4
3.2
4.75
Low
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
2.1
4.4
4.2
5.30
Low
11:00
IE
Current Account
-0.4
20.8
15.2
16.90
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
52.2
49.5
50.1
50.23
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-1.4
1.3
1.13
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.3
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.08
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-6.3
-7.4
-4.5
-5.22
Low
03:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.2
74.2
74
73.83
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.4
-0.6
-0.3
-0.87
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.2
2.1
2.2
0.57
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.5
1
0.6
0.70
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
4.4
3.1
3
3.00
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
2
2.5
4
5.60
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
119.6
121.1
120.6
120.45
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-1.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.07
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-1.4
-1.57
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.68
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.9
45.1
45.3
45.45
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
40.5
-20.9
11
8.30
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
50.5
53.2
52.5
52.72
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.5
48.9
50.3
50.43
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.87
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-0.8
-0.97
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.28
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
-0.37
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.1
1.4
0.5
-1.13
Low
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
3.9
1.1
-0.5
-0.92
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.9
0.5
0
-0.45
Low
01:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.2
62.4
62.7
62.53
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.7
-1.9
-0.2
-0.20
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-3.4
-5.8
-4
-4.15
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
2.9
2.2
3
3.00
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.8
1
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
-0.8
0
-0.18
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
0.4
0.23
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.97
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
121.1
120.5
120
119.85
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
3.2
3.18
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.2
6.6
6.1
7.70
Low
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.1
44.5
46
46.15
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.67
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.55
Low
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-29.9
-31.6
-25
-27.70
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.2
0.4
-0.02
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
-0.1
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
2.7
2.68
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.2
54.2
54.7
54.92
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Gross Domestic Product YoY Shows Ireland’s Growth Moderation December Report Reveals Ireland’s GDP YoY at 10.80 Percent Gross Domestic Product YoY measures the yearly change in the total value of goods and services produced by a country. Ireland’s latest GDP YoY reading reached 10.80%, slightly surpassing the 10.50% forecast but down sharply from 17.20% three months earlier. This slowdown signals a cooling phase after a period of exceptional expansion driven by strong exports and multinational activity. According to Morgan Stanley, “Ireland’s economy remains resilient despite tighter monetary policy and global uncertainties, but growth is clearly moderating.” The Central Bank of Ireland’s restrictive stance and easing external demand are key factors behind this trend. While domestic consumption and investment continue to support growth, risks from geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility persist. The GDP YoY figure for Ireland (IE) highlights a shift toward steadier expansion amid a complex global backdrop.
The 10.80% GDP YoY growth in December 2025 marks a clear slowdown from the 17.20% recorded in September 2025 and is slightly above the 12-month average of 13.10%. This deceleration reflects a normalization after a period of outsized gains driven by multinational corporations and export surges.
Key figure: The 6.40 percentage point drop from the previous quarter is the largest quarterly decline since early 2024, signaling a shift from rapid expansion to steady growth.