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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -17.1% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Ireland Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -17.1% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 19.3% from December's 2.2% reading. The reading missed the -6.0% consensus by 11.1%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-17.1
Actual
-6
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.75 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -6
Actual: -17.1
Error: +11.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Ireland) was reported at -17.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6% by 11.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.43%, ranging from -17.1% to 20% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.83%, down from the prior three at 12.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.75%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IE
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
Ireland's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May registered at -17.100000%, missing the estimate of -6.000000% and sharply down from March's 2.200000%. This marks a significant contraction compared to the previous positive growth reading, indicating a severe economic downturn. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data releases and central bank responses amid this unexpected decline. Updated 6/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -17.1 %, consensus -6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -6 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.