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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to -1.6% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Ireland Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to -1.6% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 15.5% from March's -17.1% reading. The print exceeded the -13.0% consensus by 11.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 7.59%. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.6
Actual
-13
Consensus
-17.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.6 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -18.55
Actual: -1.6
Error: -16.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Ireland) was reported at -1.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -13% by 11.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -17.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.54%, ranging from -17.1% to 17.1% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -10.57%, down from the prior three at 5.47%. In July readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 4.48%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.6%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IE
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
Ireland's Gross Domestic Product YoY for June came in at -1.600000%, sharply beating the -13.000000% estimate and improving from May's -17.100000%. This marks a significant contraction slowdown, moving closer to stabilization after steep declines earlier in the year. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases for confirmation of this recovery trend. Updated 7/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1.6 %, consensus -13 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -13 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -17.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.25 | Low |
| 10:00 | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.20 | Low |