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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Ireland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.4% from August's 0.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Ireland) was reported at 0.2% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from -1% to 1.8% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.65%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.01%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - IE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Ireland
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Balance of Trade | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.90 | Low | |