Ireland’s Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM for December 2025 came in at -0.20%, beating the consensus estimate of -0.40% and reversing November’s 0.40% increase. This 0.60 percentage point decline signals a contraction in monthly inflation pressures, reflecting easing energy and transport costs. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance as inflation cools but underlying risks from wage growth and supply constraints persist. Updated 12/1/25
Harmonised Inflation Rate Mom - IE
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Ireland’s Latest Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM: December 2025 Analysis
Ireland’s Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM eased by -0.20% in December 2025, reversing last month’s 0.40% rise. This marks a notable cooling compared to the 12-month average of 0.15%. Core drivers include easing energy costs and subdued shelter inflation. Monetary policy remains cautious amid mixed signals, while fiscal stimulus and external risks add complexity. Market reaction was muted but cautious, reflecting uncertainty over inflation persistence. Forward outlook balances downside risks from global shocks against upside inflation pressures from wage growth and supply constraints.
The Harmonised Inflation Rate Month-on-Month (MoM) for Ireland declined by -0.20% in December 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This contrasts with November’s 0.40% increase and marks a reversal from the prior month’s upward trend. Over the past year, the average monthly inflation rate has hovered around 0.15%, indicating moderate inflationary pressures overall.
Drivers this month
Energy prices fell by approximately 0.30%, easing headline inflation.
Shelter inflation contribution dropped to 0.10%, down from 0.30% last month.
Food prices remained stable, contributing near zero to the monthly change.
Transport costs declined by 0.20%, reflecting lower fuel prices.
Policy pulse
The current inflation reading sits below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target on a monthly basis, signaling a temporary easing in price pressures. However, annual inflation remains elevated, keeping monetary policy on alert. The ECB’s recent rate hikes appear to be moderating demand, but core inflation components show stickiness.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious sentiment. The 2-year German bund yield declined by 4 basis points, signaling a slight easing in inflation expectations. Irish government bond spreads remained stable.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the Harmonised Inflation Rate reveals a nuanced picture. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 0.50% quarter-on-quarter, supporting consumer demand. Unemployment in Ireland remains low at 4.20%, sustaining wage pressures. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing dipped slightly to 51.20, indicating modest expansion.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s deposit rate stands at 3.75%, unchanged since October 2025. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with credit growth slowing to 3.10% year-on-year. The Irish Central Bank has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing data dependency amid inflation volatility.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus remains supportive, with the government’s 2025 budget allocating €1.20 billion towards housing and energy subsidies. The budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3, reflecting improved tax revenues and controlled spending. However, rising public debt at 58% of GDP warrants vigilance.
The December 2025 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM for Ireland registered a -0.20% change, down from 0.40% in November and below the 12-month average of 0.15%. This marks a significant shift from the prior two months, which saw inflation spikes of 0.20% and 0.40% respectively.
Energy and transport sectors were the main contributors to the decline, offsetting modest gains in shelter and services. The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trajectory over the past year, highlighting the recent volatility and the current downward inflection.
Figure 1: Ireland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM, August 2024 - December 2025 (Source: Sigmanomics database)
This chart signals a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the short term, reversing a two-month rise. However, the volatility suggests underlying uncertainty, with energy prices and supply chain factors continuing to influence monthly outcomes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/IESEUR currency pair weakened by 0.15% post-release, reflecting market caution. The Irish 2-year bond yield dropped 4 basis points, indicating a slight reduction in inflation risk premiums. Equity markets showed muted response, with the ISEQ index closing flat.
Looking ahead, Ireland’s inflation trajectory faces multiple influences. The base case scenario (60% probability) anticipates inflation stabilizing around 0.10% MoM in early 2026, supported by moderate wage growth and steady energy prices. The bullish scenario (20% probability) envisions inflation rising above 0.30% MoM if supply constraints intensify and wage pressures accelerate. Conversely, the bearish scenario (20% probability) sees inflation dipping below -0.30% MoM if global energy prices fall sharply and demand softens due to tighter monetary policy.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions remain key downside risks. A potential escalation could drive energy prices higher, reversing recent gains. Conversely, a resolution or easing of trade frictions could ease inflationary pressures.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term inflation in Ireland is influenced by demographic shifts, housing supply constraints, and productivity growth. The recent moderation in inflation may be temporary, as structural factors such as housing shortages continue to exert upward pressure on prices.
In summary, Ireland’s Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM for December 2025 signals a cooling phase after recent increases. While headline inflation eased by -0.20%, underlying pressures remain, warranting close monitoring. Monetary policy is likely to remain data-dependent, balancing inflation control with growth support. Fiscal measures and external developments will play pivotal roles in shaping the inflation outlook. Market participants should prepare for continued volatility amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Key Markets Likely to React to Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM is a critical gauge for markets sensitive to inflation trends. Key symbols historically tracking this indicator include:
CRH – Ireland’s leading building materials firm, sensitive to inflation-driven construction costs.
EURUSD – Euro to US Dollar currency pair, reflecting ECB policy responses to inflation.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often reacting to inflation surprises.
IBG – Irish Bank Group, sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation.
EURGBP – Euro to British Pound, reflecting cross-border inflation and policy differentials.
Indicator vs. CRH Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, CRH’s stock price has shown a positive correlation with Ireland’s Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with increased construction demand and pricing power, benefiting CRH. The recent inflation moderation in December 2025 coincided with a slight pullback in CRH shares, reflecting market sensitivity to inflation trends.
Year
Avg Inflation MoM (%)
CRH Price Change (%)
2023
0.18
12.50
2024
0.22
8.30
2025 (YTD)
0.15
5.10
FAQs
What is the Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM for Ireland?
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM measures the monthly percentage change in consumer prices across Ireland, harmonised for EU comparability.
How does the latest inflation reading affect ECB policy?
The December 2025 reading of -0.20% MoM suggests easing inflation, which may slow ECB rate hikes but does not eliminate the need for vigilance.
What are the main risks to Ireland’s inflation outlook?
Risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, wage growth, and supply chain disruptions impacting inflation persistence.
Key takeaway: Ireland’s inflation shows signs of short-term easing but remains vulnerable to external shocks and structural pressures, requiring balanced policy responses.
Economic Calendar - IE Events
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.9
-4
-1.2
-1.35
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
2.7
-0.5
-0.2
1.35
Low
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.17
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
-
53.8
52.6
52.82
Low
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
4.5
0.6
2
1.28
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.3
5.7
4.5
5.60
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
-
51.5
51.6
51.73
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
-2.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.3
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.6
-0.7
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
0.4
1
0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.05
Low
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.1
74.1
73
72.83
Low
Friday, November 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
0.2
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.90
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10
10.1
10.4
10.40
Low
Friday, November 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
11.6
5.5
3.2
4.80
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
-
49
49.1
49.25
Low
Friday, November 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-5.2
12.3
11
8.30
Low
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.9
0.2
0.02
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.1
0.08
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.17
Low
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
55.7
55.5
55.72
Low
Friday, November 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
51.5
49.4
49.5
49.63
Low
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.6
-1.7
0.2
-1.43
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.5
0.33
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.4
0.38
Low
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.2
-1.9
-0.4
-0.82
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.2
-4
1.2
1.05
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-1.2
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
2
-1
0.7
0.70
Low
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.7
3.2
1.57
Low
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10.1
9.6
10.4
10.40
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
1.2
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.2
6.5
7
8.60
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49
50
50.6
50.75
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.3
0.12
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0
1.1
0.2
0.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1
0.1
-0.8
-0.97
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
12
9.1
27.7
25.00
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55.7
53.8
53.4
53.62
Low
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
50.4
51
51.13
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.1
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.2
1.1
1.3
1.28
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
1.4
0.5
0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.5
0.6
0.1
-0.35
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-4.3
0.2
0.1
-0.47
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
5.4
5
3.37
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
71.9
72
72
71.83
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
9.6
8.9
8.9
8.90
Low
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7
5.2
5
6.60
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.2
1.8
1.47
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
5.6
-19.1
-10.1
-12.80
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
50
49.9
50.4
50.55
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3.3
-7.1
4
3.18
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-1
0.9
1.2
1.20
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1.6
4.8
2
3.55
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
35.5
22.6
16.5
18.20
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-4
-6.5
-1.4
-1.55
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.67
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
53.6
53.1
53.32
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.6
5
2.3
3.40
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
50.1
50
50.13
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.65
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.1
-1.1
-1.52
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
5.4
2.8
4.1
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
2.3
1.7
1.13
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
72
74.9
74
73.83
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-1.5
-11.6
-4
-4.72
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.8
7
4.3
5.90
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.20
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.50
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.9
47.5
47
47.15
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-17.2
4.5
-3.6
-6.30
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.97
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.02
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.17
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.6
54.2
54
54.22
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.4
48
48.13
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.4
-0.6
0
-0.45
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1.8
-1
-0.8
-1.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.37
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.30
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.4
-4.7
-3
-3.15
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.9
70.5
71
70.83
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
2.3
-2.8
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.8
0.9
3.7
2.07
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.2
7.9
8.7
8.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.30
Low
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7.5
9
6.2
7.80
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.13
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
6.3
-14.7
25.4
22.70
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.5
49.8
50.6
50.75
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4
4.1
4.07
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.2
55
53.8
54.02
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
2.4
2.38
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.23
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
49.8
49.3
49.43
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.5
63.6
66
65.83
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.7
1
0.55
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.92
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
0.9
3.8
3.9
2.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-2.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.87
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
8.8
6.9
6
7.60
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.33
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.32
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2
1.6
1.9
1.88
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-14.7
34.7
-30.7
-33.40
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.8
53.2
53
53.15
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4
4
4.5
4.47
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-6.5
-8.7
-0.8
-0.95
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
12.2
-1
2.2
3.75
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
22.6
-0.4
15.8
17.50
Low
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3
-2.7
3.3
2.48
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.9
-3.6
1.1
1.10
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55
53.3
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.8
47.6
48.4
48.53
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
65.7
67.8
67
66.83
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-12.7
-6.2
-3.4
-4.12
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.6
2
1.98
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.7
2.6
2.2
3.30
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
2
2
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
2.1
-0.5
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.8
-0.9
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.8
2
3.5
1.87
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.9
5.8
3.3
4.90
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
7.3
6.2
6.5
6.50
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.60
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
53.2
51.6
49
49.15
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
35.2
-34.7
5
2.30
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.47
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.3
56.6
56
56.22
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
1.7
-1.1
1.8
1.35
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.1
-3.4
1
1.00
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
1
0.58
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.8
-8.7
-2.6
-2.75
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.68
Low
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
67.8
69.5
71.5
71.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.9
1.1
0.3
-0.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2
3.3
2.6
0.97
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
6.1
5.4
5.5
5.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
5.9
9.4
9
10.60
Low
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
51.6
47.4
47.5
47.65
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
CPI
100.2
99.7
100.1
99.95
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.68
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.4
2.8
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-34.9
-30
15
12.30
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.37
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
56.6
54.4
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
2.2
2.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.8
0.63
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.6
52.2
52
52.13
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1.1
5.3
2.5
2.08
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-2
2
0.6
0.15
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
69.5
70.2
69
68.83
Low
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.1
1.4
0.1
-0.47
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.3
2.2
2.3
0.67
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
1.3
0.7
0.80
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
5.4
4.1
5
5.00
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
CPI
99.7
98.7
99.7
99.55
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.7
2.2
2.18
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.6
3.27
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
1
-1.3
1
0.82
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.1
-1.4
0.9
0.73
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.4
45.9
46.7
46.85
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-31.9
32.2
29
26.30
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.57
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.4
50.5
50.2
50.42
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-3.4
-2.5
-0.7
-0.70
Low
11:00
IE
GNP QoQ
-4.2
-1.1
-0.3
-1.12
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-8.7
-5.8
-3.4
-3.55
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1
11.4
3.2
4.75
Low
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
2.1
4.4
4.2
5.30
Low
11:00
IE
Current Account
-0.4
20.8
15.2
16.90
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
52.2
49.5
50.1
50.23
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-1.4
1.3
1.13
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.3
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.08
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-6.3
-7.4
-4.5
-5.22
Low
03:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.2
74.2
74
73.83
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.4
-0.6
-0.3
-0.87
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.2
2.1
2.2
0.57
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.5
1
0.6
0.70
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
4.4
3.1
3
3.00
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
2
2.5
4
5.60
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
119.6
121.1
120.6
120.45
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-1.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.07
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-1.4
-1.57
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.68
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.9
45.1
45.3
45.45
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
40.5
-20.9
11
8.30
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
50.5
53.2
52.5
52.72
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.5
48.9
50.3
50.43
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.87
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-0.8
-0.97
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.28
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
-0.37
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.1
1.4
0.5
-1.13
Low
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
3.9
1.1
-0.5
-0.92
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.9
0.5
0
-0.45
Low
01:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.2
62.4
62.7
62.53
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.7
-1.9
-0.2
-0.20
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-3.4
-5.8
-4
-4.15
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
2.9
2.2
3
3.00
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.8
1
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
-0.8
0
-0.18
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
0.4
0.23
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.97
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
121.1
120.5
120
119.85
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
3.2
3.18
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.2
6.6
6.1
7.70
Low
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.1
44.5
46
46.15
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.67
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.55
Low
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-29.9
-31.6
-25
-27.70
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.2
0.4
-0.02
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
-0.1
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
2.7
2.68
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.2
54.2
54.7
54.92
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Declines In Ireland December December 2025 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Shows Cooling The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM measures the monthly percentage change in consumer prices harmonised for EU comparability. Ireland’s Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell by 0.20% in December 2025, reversing November’s 0.40% rise and signaling a notable easing in inflation pressures. Fast facts: the year-over-year inflation rate stands near 3.10%, the monthly change is -0.20%, and the data was released on December 1, 2025. This decline was driven mainly by lower energy costs and a slowdown in shelter inflation, which helped offset price gains in other sectors. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted that “Ireland’s inflation moderation reflects the impact of tighter monetary policy and easing commodity prices, but wage growth remains a key factor to watch.” The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a cautious stance as inflation shows signs of cooling but underlying pressures persist. Market reaction was muted, reflecting uncertainty about the inflation outlook amid global risks and domestic fiscal policies.
The December 2025 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM for Ireland registered a -0.20% change, down from 0.40% in November and below the 12-month average of 0.15%. This marks a significant shift from the prior two months, which saw inflation spikes of 0.20% and 0.40% respectively.
Energy and transport sectors were the main contributors to the decline, offsetting modest gains in shelter and services. The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trajectory over the past year, highlighting the recent volatility and the current downward inflection.