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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Ireland Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.2% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.7% from April's 0.5% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.1% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.88%, vs 0.12% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.04
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.16
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Ireland) was reported at -0.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -1% to 1.8% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, down from the prior three at 1.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.66%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.56%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.34%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - IE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Ireland
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.42) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.