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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IrelandIreland Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Ireland Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.4% from August's 3.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.43%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.38%, vs 3.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 96th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.9
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.91
Actual: 3.8
Error: +0.11
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Ireland) was reported at 3.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.14%, ranging from 2.4% to 3.9% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.7%, up from the prior three at 3.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - IE
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Ireland
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 3.9 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IE Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IE | Balance of Trade | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.90 | Low | |