The latest inflation data for Ireland, released on November 13, 2025, shows a significant month-on-month (MoM) increase of 0.50%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably reverses October’s 0.20% decline and surpasses the market estimate of 0.20%. Over the past year, inflation has fluctuated considerably, with monthly changes ranging from -0.80% in February to 0.90% in March. The current uptick signals a renewed inflationary momentum that could influence Ireland’s economic trajectory in the near term.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices rose by 0.30%, contributing 0.15 percentage points (pp) to the inflation increase.
• Shelter costs added 0.18 pp, reflecting ongoing housing market pressures.
• Food prices remained stable, with negligible impact on the MoM change.
• Used car prices declined slightly, subtracting 0.03 pp.

Policy pulse

The 0.50% MoM inflation rate is above the Central Bank of Ireland’s target range of 2% annual inflation, signaling potential pressure for monetary tightening. However, the recent volatility and external uncertainties suggest a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EUR/GBP currency pair dipped 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over inflation-driven monetary tightening. Irish 2-year government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, indicating increased inflation risk premiums.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the inflation print provides a fuller picture of Ireland’s economic health. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.70%, while GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 1.10% quarter-on-quarter. Wage growth has moderated to 2.30% YoY, insufficient to fully offset inflationary pressures on households.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rate at 3.25%, signaling a wait-and-see stance amid mixed inflation signals across the Eurozone. Ireland’s financial conditions remain relatively tight, with credit spreads widening slightly due to geopolitical uncertainties.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The Irish government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit forecasted at 3.80% of GDP. Increased social spending and infrastructure investments aim to support growth but risk adding to inflationary pressures if demand outpaces supply.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global energy market volatility, driven by tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions, continues to feed into Ireland’s inflation dynamics. Additionally, Brexit-related trade frictions persist, complicating export and import price stability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD fell 0.25% following the release, reflecting concerns over faster-than-expected inflation. Irish government bond yields climbed, with the 10-year yield rising 8 basis points, signaling heightened inflation risk premiums.

Looking ahead, Ireland’s inflation trajectory faces several possible scenarios. The base case (60% probability) assumes inflation moderates to 0.20% MoM in December as energy prices stabilize and supply bottlenecks ease. The bullish case (20%) envisions inflation accelerating above 0.70% MoM, driven by sustained wage growth and renewed consumer demand. The bearish case (20%) projects a sharp slowdown or deflationary pressures if global demand weakens and energy prices fall sharply.

Risks and opportunities

• Upside risks: Persistent supply chain disruptions, wage-price spirals, and fiscal stimulus overshoot.
• Downside risks: Global recession fears, energy price corrections, and tighter monetary policy dampening demand.

Policy implications

The Central Bank of Ireland and ECB face a delicate balancing act. Premature tightening risks stalling growth, while delayed action could entrench inflation expectations. Fiscal authorities must also weigh stimulus benefits against inflationary costs.

November’s inflation data underscores Ireland’s complex economic environment. The sharp 0.50% MoM rise signals renewed price pressures amid mixed signals from labor markets and external shocks. Policymakers must navigate these headwinds carefully to sustain growth without fueling runaway inflation. Financial markets have already priced in some tightening, but volatility remains high. Close monitoring of upcoming data releases will be crucial to adjust forecasts and policy responses.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation data in Ireland typically influences currency pairs, government bonds, and equity markets sensitive to interest rate expectations. The following symbols historically track inflation trends closely:

• EURGBP – Euro to British Pound exchange rate reacts to inflation-driven monetary policy shifts.
• IBEX – Spanish stock index, correlated with Eurozone inflation trends affecting Ireland.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge often moves inversely to inflation surprises.
• IE00B4L5Y983 – Irish government bond ETF, sensitive to inflation expectations.
• EURUSD – Euro to US Dollar exchange rate, a key barometer of Eurozone inflation impacts.

FAQ

What is the current inflation rate MoM for Ireland?

The latest inflation rate MoM for Ireland is 0.50% as of November 2025, up from -0.20% in October.

How does this inflation reading compare historically?

This is the highest monthly inflation increase since July 2025 and above the 12-month average of 0.30%.

What are the main risks to Ireland’s inflation outlook?

Risks include energy price volatility, wage pressures, and external geopolitical shocks that could push inflation higher or lower.

Final takeaway: Ireland’s inflation resurgence in November 2025 demands vigilant policy calibration amid persistent uncertainties and evolving market expectations.