The latest inflation data for Ireland, released on November 13, 2025, shows a year-over-year (YoY) increase to 2.90%, above the 2.60% consensus and last month’s 2.70%. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures in the Irish economy amid a complex global backdrop.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points (pp) to inflation, reflecting global oil price volatility.
• Housing and shelter costs added 0.25 pp, driven by rising rents and construction input prices.
• Food inflation remained steady, contributing 0.15 pp, with supply chain disruptions easing slightly.

Policy pulse

The 2.90% inflation rate remains above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of close to but below 2%, signaling persistent price pressures. The Central Bank of Ireland, aligned with ECB policy, faces a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/GBP edged down 0.10% post-release, while Irish government bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points. Market participants appear cautiously digesting the data, reflecting uncertainty about the inflation trajectory and monetary policy response.

Examining Ireland’s inflation in the context of core macroeconomic indicators reveals a nuanced picture. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 1.10% quarter-on-quarter, while unemployment held steady at 4.80%. Wage growth accelerated slightly to 3.20%, supporting consumer spending but also feeding inflation.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The ECB’s key interest rates remain at 3.50%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions in Ireland have tightened moderately, with credit spreads widening slightly amid global uncertainty. The Central Bank of Ireland continues to monitor inflation closely, signaling potential rate hikes if inflation proves persistent.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately contractionary, with the government targeting a budget surplus of 0.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending on social programs and infrastructure is balanced against efforts to reduce debt, which currently stands at 58% of GDP. This fiscal stance may temper demand-side inflation pressures.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% following the print, reflecting concerns about ECB tightening. Irish sovereign bond yields increased by 7 basis points, indicating rising inflation risk premiums.

Looking ahead, inflation in Ireland faces several possible trajectories. The baseline scenario (60% probability) anticipates inflation moderating to around 2.50% by mid-2026, as supply chains normalize and fiscal tightening dampens demand.

Bullish scenario

• Probability: 20%
• Inflation falls below 2% by Q3 2026 due to rapid energy price declines and stronger euro appreciation.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without fueling inflation.

Bearish scenario

• Probability: 20%
• Inflation rises above 3.50% if energy prices surge again or geopolitical tensions disrupt trade.
• ECB forced into aggressive rate hikes, risking economic slowdown.

Risks and uncertainties

External shocks such as renewed Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation or global supply chain disruptions could push inflation higher. Conversely, a stronger euro or faster fiscal consolidation could ease price pressures.

In conclusion, Ireland’s inflation rate of 2.90% in November 2025 highlights persistent inflationary pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While the Central Bank of Ireland and ECB face challenges balancing growth and price stability, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Market participants should watch energy prices, fiscal policy shifts, and geopolitical developments closely.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation data significantly influences Irish financial markets, including equities, bonds, and currency pairs. The following symbols historically track inflation trends and monetary policy expectations:

• IE00B4BNMY34 – Irish equity ETF sensitive to economic growth and inflation.
• EURUSD – Euro-dollar currency pair, reacts to ECB policy shifts driven by inflation.
• EURGBP – Euro-British pound pair, reflects cross-border inflation and trade dynamics.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often inversely correlated with fiat inflation.
• CRH – Irish construction firm, sensitive to housing inflation and input costs.

FAQs

What is the current inflation rate YoY for Ireland?

The latest inflation rate YoY for Ireland is 2.90% as of November 2025.

How does Ireland’s inflation compare historically?

Inflation has risen from a low of 1.40% in January 2025 to 2.90% in November, above the 12-month average of 2.00%.

What are the main risks to Ireland’s inflation outlook?

Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policy shifts.

Final takeaway: Ireland’s inflation is on a steady upward path, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability amid global uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.