Ireland’s Inflation Rate YoY for November 2025 came in at 2.90%, beating the 2.60% consensus and rising from October’s 2.70%. This increase signals persistent expansionary inflationary pressures above the ECB’s target, continuing a steady climb from early 2025 lows near 1.40%. Looking ahead, the Central Bank of Ireland may consider tightening monetary policy if inflation remains elevated amid energy and housing cost risks. Updated 11/13/25
Inflation Rate Yoy - IE
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Ireland’s Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
Key Takeaways: Ireland’s November 2025 inflation rate rose to 2.90%, surpassing estimates and last month’s 2.70%. This marks a steady upward trend from early 2025 lows near 1.40%. Core drivers include energy and housing costs, while monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative. External risks from geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations add complexity. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting balanced sentiment. Structural inflation pressures persist amid fiscal tightening and evolving global supply chains.
The latest inflation data for Ireland, released on November 13, 2025, shows a year-over-year (YoY) increase to 2.90%, above the 2.60% consensus and last month’s 2.70%. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures in the Irish economy amid a complex global backdrop.
Drivers this month
Energy prices contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points (pp) to inflation, reflecting global oil price volatility.
Housing and shelter costs added 0.25 pp, driven by rising rents and construction input prices.
Food inflation remained steady, contributing 0.15 pp, with supply chain disruptions easing slightly.
Policy pulse
The 2.90% inflation rate remains above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of close to but below 2%, signaling persistent price pressures. The Central Bank of Ireland, aligned with ECB policy, faces a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/GBP edged down 0.10% post-release, while Irish government bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points. Market participants appear cautiously digesting the data, reflecting uncertainty about the inflation trajectory and monetary policy response.
Examining Ireland’s inflation in the context of core macroeconomic indicators reveals a nuanced picture. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 1.10% quarter-on-quarter, while unemployment held steady at 4.80%. Wage growth accelerated slightly to 3.20%, supporting consumer spending but also feeding inflation.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s key interest rates remain at 3.50%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions in Ireland have tightened moderately, with credit spreads widening slightly amid global uncertainty. The Central Bank of Ireland continues to monitor inflation closely, signaling potential rate hikes if inflation proves persistent.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately contractionary, with the government targeting a budget surplus of 0.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending on social programs and infrastructure is balanced against efforts to reduce debt, which currently stands at 58% of GDP. This fiscal stance may temper demand-side inflation pressures.
Comparing the November 2025 inflation rate of 2.90% with October’s 2.70% and the 12-month average of 2.00% reveals a clear upward trend. Inflation has steadily climbed from a low of 1.40% in January 2025, reflecting persistent cost pressures across key sectors.
Energy and housing costs have been the primary contributors to this rise, while food inflation has stabilized. The chart below illustrates monthly inflation rates over the past year, highlighting the recent acceleration.
This chart confirms inflation is trending upward, reversing a mid-year dip. The acceleration above 2.50% signals growing price pressures that may challenge monetary policy’s inflation target in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% following the print, reflecting concerns about ECB tightening. Irish sovereign bond yields increased by 7 basis points, indicating rising inflation risk premiums.
Looking ahead, inflation in Ireland faces several possible trajectories. The baseline scenario (60% probability) anticipates inflation moderating to around 2.50% by mid-2026, as supply chains normalize and fiscal tightening dampens demand.
Bullish scenario
Probability: 20%
Inflation falls below 2% by Q3 2026 due to rapid energy price declines and stronger euro appreciation.
Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without fueling inflation.
Bearish scenario
Probability: 20%
Inflation rises above 3.50% if energy prices surge again or geopolitical tensions disrupt trade.
ECB forced into aggressive rate hikes, risking economic slowdown.
Risks and uncertainties
External shocks such as renewed Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation or global supply chain disruptions could push inflation higher. Conversely, a stronger euro or faster fiscal consolidation could ease price pressures.
In conclusion, Ireland’s inflation rate of 2.90% in November 2025 highlights persistent inflationary pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While the Central Bank of Ireland and ECB face challenges balancing growth and price stability, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Market participants should watch energy prices, fiscal policy shifts, and geopolitical developments closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data significantly influences Irish financial markets, including equities, bonds, and currency pairs. The following symbols historically track inflation trends and monetary policy expectations:
IE00B4BNMY34 – Irish equity ETF sensitive to economic growth and inflation.
EURUSD – Euro-dollar currency pair, reacts to ECB policy shifts driven by inflation.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often inversely correlated with fiat inflation.
CRH – Irish construction firm, sensitive to housing inflation and input costs.
Inflation vs. EURUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Ireland’s inflation rate and the EURUSD exchange rate have shown an inverse relationship during inflation spikes. For example, inflation surges in 2021 and 2025 coincided with EURUSD dips, reflecting ECB tightening expectations. This dynamic underscores the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data and monetary policy outlooks.
FAQs
What is the current inflation rate YoY for Ireland?
The latest inflation rate YoY for Ireland is 2.90% as of November 2025.
How does Ireland’s inflation compare historically?
Inflation has risen from a low of 1.40% in January 2025 to 2.90% in November, above the 12-month average of 2.00%.
What are the main risks to Ireland’s inflation outlook?
Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policy shifts.
Final takeaway: Ireland’s inflation is on a steady upward path, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability amid global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - IE Events
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.9
-4
-1.2
-1.35
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
2.7
-0.5
-0.2
1.35
Low
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.17
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
-
53.8
52.6
52.82
Low
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
4.5
0.6
2
1.28
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.3
5.7
4.5
5.60
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
-
51.5
51.6
51.73
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
-2.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.3
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.6
-0.7
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
0.4
1
0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.05
Low
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.1
74.1
73
72.83
Low
Friday, November 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
0.2
0.3
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.6
-0.4
-2.03
Low
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.90
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10
10.1
10.4
10.40
Low
Friday, November 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
11.6
5.5
3.2
4.80
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
-
49
49.1
49.25
Low
Friday, November 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-5.2
12.3
11
8.30
Low
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-0.9
0.2
0.02
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.3
0.13
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.1
0.08
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.17
Low
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
55.7
55.5
55.72
Low
Friday, November 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
51.5
49.4
49.5
49.63
Low
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.6
-1.7
0.2
-1.43
Low
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
-1
0.5
0.33
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.1
0
0.4
0.38
Low
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.2
-1.9
-0.4
-0.82
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.2
-4
1.2
1.05
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-1.2
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
2
-1
0.7
0.70
Low
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-
-4.3
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-
-1.7
3.2
1.57
Low
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
10.1
9.6
10.4
10.40
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.9
1.2
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.2
6.5
7
8.60
Low
Monday, October 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49
50
50.6
50.75
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.3
0.12
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0
1.1
0.2
0.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1
0.1
-0.8
-0.97
Low
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
12
9.1
27.7
25.00
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55.7
53.8
53.4
53.62
Low
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.27
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
50.4
51
51.13
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.1
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.2
1.1
1.3
1.28
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
1.4
0.5
0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.5
0.6
0.1
-0.35
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-4.3
0.2
0.1
-0.47
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
-1.7
5.4
5
3.37
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
71.9
72
72
71.83
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
9.6
8.9
8.9
8.90
Low
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7
5.2
5
6.60
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.2
1.8
1.47
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
5.6
-19.1
-10.1
-12.80
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
50
49.9
50.4
50.55
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3.3
-7.1
4
3.18
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-1
0.9
1.2
1.20
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1.6
4.8
2
3.55
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
35.5
22.6
16.5
18.20
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-4
-6.5
-1.4
-1.55
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.67
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.8
53.6
53.1
53.32
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
5.6
5
2.3
3.40
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
50.1
50
50.13
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.65
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.1
-1.1
-1.52
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
5.4
2.8
4.1
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.2
2.3
1.7
1.13
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.07
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
72
74.9
74
73.83
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-1.5
-11.6
-4
-4.72
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.8
7
4.3
5.90
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.20
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.50
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.9
47.5
47
47.15
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-17.2
4.5
-3.6
-6.30
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.97
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.02
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.17
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.6
54.2
54
54.22
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.4
48
48.13
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.4
-0.6
0
-0.45
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1.8
-1
-0.8
-1.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.37
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.30
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.4
-4.7
-3
-3.15
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.9
70.5
71
70.83
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
2.3
-2.8
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.8
0.9
3.7
2.07
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
8.2
7.9
8.7
8.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.30
Low
Monday, July 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
7.5
9
6.2
7.80
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
1.5
1.48
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.13
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
6.3
-14.7
25.4
22.70
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.5
49.8
50.6
50.75
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4
4.1
4.07
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.2
55
53.8
54.02
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2
2.4
2.38
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.23
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
49.8
49.3
49.43
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.5
63.6
66
65.83
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.7
1
0.55
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.92
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
0.9
3.8
3.9
2.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-2.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.87
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
8.8
6.9
6
7.60
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.33
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.32
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2
1.6
1.9
1.88
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.37
Low
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-14.7
34.7
-30.7
-33.40
Low
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
49.8
53.2
53
53.15
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4
4
4.5
4.47
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-6.5
-8.7
-0.8
-0.95
Low
10:00
IE
GNP YoY
12.2
-1
2.2
3.75
Low
10:00
IE
Current Account
22.6
-0.4
15.8
17.50
Low
10:00
IE
GNP QoQ
3
-2.7
3.3
2.48
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.9
-3.6
1.1
1.10
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
55
53.3
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.8
47.6
48.4
48.53
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
65.7
67.8
67
66.83
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-12.7
-6.2
-3.4
-4.12
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
1.6
2
1.98
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.7
2.6
2.2
3.30
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
2
2
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
2.1
-0.5
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
0.8
-0.9
0.5
-0.07
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.8
2
3.5
1.87
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
6.9
5.8
3.3
4.90
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
7.3
6.2
6.5
6.50
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.60
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
53.2
51.6
49
49.15
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
35.2
-34.7
5
2.30
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.03
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.58
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.1
-0.08
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.47
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.3
56.6
56
56.22
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
1.7
-1.1
1.8
1.35
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1.1
-3.4
1
1.00
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.23
Low
10:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
1
0.58
Low
10:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.8
-8.7
-2.6
-2.75
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.68
Low
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
IE
Consumer Confidence
67.8
69.5
71.5
71.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.9
1.1
0.3
-0.27
Low
10:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2
3.3
2.6
0.97
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.70
Low
10:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
6.1
5.4
5.5
5.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Balance of Trade
5.9
9.4
9
10.60
Low
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Construction PMI
51.6
47.4
47.5
47.65
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
CPI
100.2
99.7
100.1
99.95
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1
0.4
0.22
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.68
Low
10:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.4
2.8
2.47
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-34.9
-30
15
12.30
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.37
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
56.6
54.4
53.5
53.72
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
2.3
2.2
2.18
Low
10:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
1.1
0.8
0.63
Low
00:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.6
52.2
52
52.13
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
1.1
5.3
2.5
2.08
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
-2
2
0.6
0.15
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
69.5
70.2
69
68.83
Low
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.1
1.4
0.1
-0.47
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
3.3
2.2
2.3
0.67
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.7
1.3
0.7
0.80
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
5.4
4.1
5
5.00
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
CPI
99.7
98.7
99.7
99.55
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.7
2.2
2.18
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.6
3.27
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
1
-1.3
1
0.82
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.1
-1.4
0.9
0.73
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
47.4
45.9
46.7
46.85
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-31.9
32.2
29
26.30
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.57
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
54.4
50.5
50.2
50.42
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-3.4
-2.5
-0.7
-0.70
Low
11:00
IE
GNP QoQ
-4.2
-1.1
-0.3
-1.12
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-8.7
-5.8
-3.4
-3.55
Low
11:00
IE
GNP YoY
-1
11.4
3.2
4.75
Low
11:00
IE
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
2.1
4.4
4.2
5.30
Low
11:00
IE
Current Account
-0.4
20.8
15.2
16.90
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
52.2
49.5
50.1
50.23
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-1.4
1.3
1.13
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.3
1.1
0.65
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.08
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Construction Output YoY
-6.3
-7.4
-4.5
-5.22
Low
03:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
70.2
74.2
74
73.83
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
1.4
-0.6
-0.3
-0.87
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.2
2.1
2.2
0.57
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
1.5
1
0.6
0.70
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
4.4
3.1
3
3.00
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
2
2.5
4
5.60
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
119.6
121.1
120.6
120.45
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
-1.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.58
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.07
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-1.4
-1.57
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.68
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.9
45.1
45.3
45.45
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
40.5
-20.9
11
8.30
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
50.5
53.2
52.5
52.72
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:01
IE
AIB Manufacturing PMI
49.5
48.9
50.3
50.43
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.87
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.4
0.4
-0.8
-0.97
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.28
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
-0.37
Low
11:00
IE
Wholesale Prices YoY
2.1
1.4
0.5
-1.13
Low
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
3.9
1.1
-0.5
-0.92
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.9
0.5
0
-0.45
Low
01:01
IE
Consumer Confidence
74.2
62.4
62.7
62.53
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.7
-1.9
-0.2
-0.20
Low
11:00
IE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-3.4
-5.8
-4
-4.15
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices YoY
2.9
2.2
3
3.00
Low
11:00
IE
Residential Property Prices MoM
0.8
1
1
1.10
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
-0.8
0
-0.18
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
0.4
0.23
Low
11:00
IE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.97
Low
11:00
IE
CPI
121.1
120.5
120
119.85
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
3.2
3.18
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Balance of Trade
4.2
6.6
6.1
7.70
Low
01:01
IE
Construction PMI
45.1
44.5
46
46.15
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Unemployment Rate
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.67
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.55
Low
11:00
IE
Industrial Production YoY
-29.9
-31.6
-25
-27.70
Low
11:00
IE
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.2
0.4
-0.02
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.9
-0.1
-0.27
Low
11:00
IE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
2.5
2.7
2.68
Low
01:01
IE
AIB Services PMI
53.2
54.2
54.7
54.92
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Ireland Inflation Rate YoY Rises to 2.90 Percent in November November 2025 Inflation Rate YoY Exceeds Expectations The Inflation Rate YoY for Ireland, which measures the annual change in consumer prices, climbed to 2.90% in November 2025, surpassing the 2.60% forecast and last month’s 2.70%. This increase highlights persistent inflationary pressures driven mainly by rising energy and housing costs. The month’s data reflects ongoing challenges for the Central Bank of Ireland as it navigates a complex global economic environment. According to economist Fiona Murphy, “The steady rise in Ireland’s Inflation Rate YoY signals that inflation remains firmly above the ECB’s target, requiring careful policy calibration to avoid overheating.” Markets reacted cautiously, with the euro slightly weakening against major currencies. Overall, the Inflation Rate YoY for IE points to sustained price pressures that could influence monetary policy decisions in the coming months.
Comparing the November 2025 inflation rate of 2.90% with October’s 2.70% and the 12-month average of 2.00% reveals a clear upward trend. Inflation has steadily climbed from a low of 1.40% in January 2025, reflecting persistent cost pressures across key sectors.
Energy and housing costs have been the primary contributors to this rise, while food inflation has stabilized. The chart below illustrates monthly inflation rates over the past year, highlighting the recent acceleration.