The Wholesale Prices MoM for Ireland increased by 0.70% in November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This follows a contraction of -0.40% in October and compares to a 12-month average of approximately 0.00%, reflecting a return to positive wholesale inflation after a subdued period. The actual figure fell short of the 1.20% market estimate, indicating some moderation in wholesale price pressures.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed 0.25 percentage points, reflecting ongoing volatility in global oil and gas markets.
• Food and beverages added 0.15 percentage points, influenced by supply chain disruptions in Europe.
• Intermediate goods prices rose by 0.10 percentage points, linked to raw material cost increases.
• Durable goods prices remained flat, exerting minimal influence.
• Services-related wholesale prices showed a slight uptick of 0.05 percentage points.

Policy pulse

The 0.70% increase remains above the European Central Bank’s inflation target of 2% annualized but suggests a deceleration from recent peaks. The ECB’s cautious stance on further rate hikes aligns with this moderate wholesale inflation reading, balancing growth concerns with inflation control.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% in the first hour post-release, reflecting tempered optimism amid the below-estimate print. Irish government bond yields edged up by 3 basis points, signaling mild inflation risk repricing.

Wholesale prices serve as a leading indicator for consumer inflation and production costs. Ireland’s 0.70% MoM rise in November 2025 contrasts with the -0.40% decline in October and the flat readings observed throughout much of 2025. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of Irish wholesale prices to external shocks and domestic demand fluctuations.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The ECB’s key interest rate currently stands at 3.75%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions in Ireland remain moderately tight, with credit spreads slightly elevated due to global uncertainties. Wholesale price increases may pressure the ECB to maintain a hawkish stance, though the below-forecast print tempers immediate tightening expectations.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Irish fiscal policy remains focused on deficit reduction, with the government targeting a 2.80% of GDP deficit in 2025. Higher wholesale prices could increase tax revenues via VAT but also raise input costs for public projects. Budgetary constraints may limit fiscal stimulus, reinforcing reliance on monetary policy to manage inflation.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Persistent energy supply disruptions and Brexit-related trade frictions continue to affect Ireland’s wholesale prices. The recent escalation in Eastern European tensions adds uncertainty to commodity markets, potentially driving further wholesale price volatility in coming months.

The monthly volatility in wholesale prices highlights the influence of fluctuating energy costs and supply chain constraints. The October dip was largely driven by temporary easing in commodity prices, while November’s rebound aligns with renewed energy market tightness and supply disruptions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/GBP fell 0.12% following the release, reflecting cautious sentiment. Irish 2-year government bond yields rose 4 basis points, indicating increased inflation risk pricing. The Irish euro (IEUR) showed minor depreciation against the USD.

Looking ahead, wholesale price trends in Ireland face multiple influences. The baseline scenario projects moderate wholesale inflation averaging 0.50% MoM over the next quarter, driven by persistent energy costs and supply chain normalization. This scenario carries a 55% probability.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Energy prices stabilize or decline due to easing geopolitical tensions.
• Supply chains improve faster than expected, reducing cost pressures.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth.
• Wholesale prices moderate to 0.20% MoM increases or less.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Energy shocks intensify, pushing wholesale prices above 1.50% MoM.
• Geopolitical risks escalate, disrupting trade and supply chains.
• ECB tightens policy aggressively, raising borrowing costs.
• Wholesale inflation accelerates, feeding into consumer prices.

Risks and opportunities

Upside risks include renewed commodity price spikes and fiscal tightening pressures. Downside risks stem from potential demand slowdowns and improved supply conditions. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support amid these uncertainties.

The November 2025 Wholesale Prices MoM reading for Ireland signals a cautious return of inflationary pressures after a brief lull. While the 0.70% increase falls short of expectations, it highlights ongoing cost challenges in the wholesale sector. Monetary authorities face a delicate task managing inflation without stifling growth, especially given external shocks and fiscal constraints.

Market participants should monitor energy markets and geopolitical developments closely, as these remain key drivers of wholesale price volatility. The balance of risks suggests a moderately inflationary environment ahead, with potential for both upside surprises and downside corrections.

Overall, the data underscore the importance of agile policy responses and diversified risk management strategies in Ireland’s evolving macroeconomic landscape.