Key Takeaways: Ireland's wholesale prices surged 1.4% MoM in January, reversing December's -0.6% drop. This marks the sharpest monthly rise in over a year, with energy and food inputs driving the rebound.

Ireland Wholesale Prices MoM: January’s 1.4% Surge Signals Upward Momentum

Wholesale prices in Ireland jumped 1.4% month-over-month in January 2026, sharply reversing December’s -0.6% decline. This robust print outpaces both the market estimate of -0.2% and the 12-month average, highlighting renewed cost pressures across key sectors.

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers This Month

Energy inputs: +0.52pp
Food manufacturing: +0.31pp
Machinery: +0.18pp
Pharmaceuticals: +0.11pp
Metals: +0.09pp

Policy Pulse

The 1.4% monthly increase stands well above the European Central Bank’s medium-term price stability target, intensifying scrutiny on upstream cost trends.

Market Lens

Irish equities opened higher as wholesale price momentum signaled robust industrial demand. The sharp rebound from December’s contraction has prompted investors to reassess inflation pass-through risks, especially in sectors exposed to global commodity swings.

Foundational Indicators

Historical Context

January’s 1.4% MoM print is the highest since late 2024, breaking a streak of subdued readings. December 2025 registered a -0.6% decline, while November 2025 saw a flat 0.0% change. Over the past six months, the average monthly movement was just 0.0%, underscoring the significance of this latest surge.

Comparative Figures

- January 2026: 1.4%
- December 2025: -0.6%
- November 2025: 0.0%
- 6-month average: 0.0%
- Market estimate for January: -0.2%

Methodology & Source

Data is sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflecting official Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases. The index tracks price changes for goods sold by manufacturers and wholesalers, excluding VAT and transport costs[1].

Chart Dynamics

January’s 1.4% MoM rise sharply contrasts with December’s -0.6% and the flat 0.0% six-month average. The latest figure marks the largest monthly gain since 2024, breaking a prolonged period of stagnation. Over the past year, monthly changes hovered near zero, with January’s print standing out as a clear outlier.

Line chart showing Ireland's Wholesale Prices MoM from February 2025 to January 2026, with values near 0% until a sharp spike to 1.4% in January 2026. — Wholesale Prices MoM trend (Feb 2025 – Jan 2026)

The chart underscores a sudden upward break after months of flat readings, highlighting renewed cost pressures in Ireland’s wholesale sector.

What This Chart Tells Us: The abrupt January spike signals a potential turning point for wholesale pricing power in Ireland. If sustained, this could feed into broader inflation metrics and impact monetary policy debates. The outsized move warrants close monitoring in coming months.

Forward Outlook

Scenario Analysis

Bullish (20–30%): Continued input cost normalization and robust export demand push wholesale prices higher, supporting industrial margins.
Base Case (50–60%): Price growth moderates, with monthly changes returning toward the 0.0% average as supply chains stabilize.
Bearish (15–25%): Global commodity volatility or weaker demand triggers renewed price declines, reversing January’s gains.

Risks & Catalysts

Upside risks include further energy price shocks and persistent supply bottlenecks. Downside risks stem from global demand softening or rapid policy tightening.

Closing Thoughts

Market Lens

Bond yields edged higher as investors priced in the risk of upstream inflation feeding into consumer prices. The sharp January print has shifted sentiment, with market participants watching for signs of sustained cost pressures in the months ahead.

Summary

Ireland’s wholesale price index delivered its strongest monthly gain in over a year, breaking a long stretch of stagnation. The coming months will reveal whether this marks a new trend or a one-off spike.

Key Markets Reacting to Wholesale Prices MoM

Movements in Ireland’s wholesale prices ripple across global asset classes. The January surge has drawn attention from equity, forex, and crypto traders, each seeking to gauge the impact on inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Below are verified tradable symbols most sensitive to these shifts, sourced directly from Sigmanomics market listings.

AAPL (US stocks): Sensitive to global supply chain costs and input inflation.
EURUSD (Forex): Moves with eurozone inflation and ECB rate expectations.
BTCUSD (Crypto): Reacts to inflation surprises and macro volatility.

Indicator vs. Symbol Table (2020–2026):

Year	IE Wholesale Prices MoM (%)	EURUSD Trend
2020	-0.2 to 0.1	Range-bound
2021	0.0 to 0.3	Modest gains
2022	0.1 to 0.4	Volatile
2023	-0.1 to 0.2	Flat
2024	0.0	Stable
2025	0.0 to -0.6	Softening
2026 (Jan)	1.4	Strengthening

The table shows that sharp moves in Ireland’s wholesale prices often coincide with directional shifts in EURUSD, especially during inflation surprises.

FAQ

What does Ireland’s January 2026 Wholesale Prices MoM figure indicate?: The 1.4% MoM increase signals a sharp rebound in wholesale costs, reversing December’s decline and marking the strongest monthly gain in over a year.
How does this surge compare to recent trends?: January’s print breaks a six-month streak of flat or negative readings, with the previous high occurring in late 2024.
What sectors contributed most to the January increase?: Energy, food manufacturing, and machinery were the primary drivers of the January 2026 wholesale price surge.

This month’s data signals a potential inflection point for Ireland’s wholesale sector and broader inflation outlook.

Updated 2/23/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sigmanomics Economic Data, Ireland Wholesale Prices MoM, retrieved 2/23/26.
Central Statistics Office (CSO) Ireland, Wholesale Price Index methodology, accessed 2/23/26.

Economic Calendar - IE Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	0.8	-1	0.7	0.73	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.42	Low
11:00	IE	HICP YoY	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.40	Low
11:00	IE	HICP MoM	0.8	-1	0.7	0.72	Low
10:00	IE	HICP YoY	-	2.5	2.4	2.40	Low
10:00	IE	HICP MoM	-	-1	0.7	0.72	Low
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	GNP QoQ	-	0.8	0.3	1.90	Low
11:00	IE	GDP Growth Rate YoY	-	10.8	3.7	1.55	Low
11:00	IE	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	-	-0.3	-0.6	-1.20	Low
11:00	IE	GNP YoY	-	2.7	2.4	4.95	Low
11:00	IE	Current Account	-	13.9	19	15.90	Low
11:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product YoY	-	10.8	3.4	2.80	Low
11:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	-0.3	-0.6	-2.20	Low
04:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	-0.3	-0.6	-2.20	Low
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-3.8	0	-0.6	-2.20	Low
12:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product YoY	2.2	11.2	3.4	2.80	Low
11:00	IE	Current Account	12.8	13.9	19	15.90	Low
11:00	IE	GNP QoQ	3.5	0.5	0.3	1.90	Low
11:00	IE	GNP YoY	7.5	3.1	2.4	4.95	Low
11:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product YoY	2.2	11.2	3.4	2.80	Low
11:00	IE	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-3.8	0	-0.6	-2.20	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Unemployment Rate	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.67	Low
01:01	IE	AIB Services PMI	51.8	54.5	54	53.15	Low
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	0.7	-1	0.6	0.63	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	2.4	2.5	2.3	2.32	Low
01:01	IE	AIB Manufacturing PMI	53.1	52.2	52.4	52.30	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
01:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	65.2	64.7	65	65.58	Low
Monday, February 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Wholesale Prices YoY	-5.2	-6.4	-6.7	-6.53	Low
11:00	IE	Wholesale Prices MoM	1.4	-0.6	-0.2	-0.03	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Average Weekly Earnings YoY	-	4.9	4.4	4.40	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	-1	0.6	-1	-0.97	Low
11:00	IE	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.9	0.5	-1	-1.02	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.62	Low
11:00	IE	Inflation Rate YoY	2.7	2.8	2.6	2.58	Low
11:00	IE	HICP MoM	-1	0.6	-1	-0.98	Low
11:00	IE	HICP YoY	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.60	Low
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
01:01	IE	Construction PMI	48.6	48.4	48.9	49.02	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Unemployment Rate	4.7	4.7	5	4.97	Low
01:01	IE	AIB Services PMI	54.5	54.8	54.2	53.35	Low
Tuesday, February 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
01:01	IE	AIB Manufacturing PMI	52.2	52.2	52.5	52.40	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	-1	0.6	-0.7	-0.67	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.72	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	-0.6	-0.3	0.6	0.00	Low
11:00	IE	GDP Growth Rate YoY	3.7	10.8	8	5.85	Low
Wednesday, January 28, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Retail Sales MoM	-0.4	0.3	0.6	0.32	Low
11:00	IE	Retail Sales YoY	-0.1	2.1	2.7	2.00	Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Residential Property Prices MoM	-	0.6	0.5	0.45	Low
11:00	IE	Wholesale Prices YoY	-	-5.3	-5.7	-5.53	Low
11:00	IE	Residential Property Prices YoY	-	7.3	6.9	6.80	Low
11:00	IE	Wholesale Prices MoM	-	0	0.2	0.38	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Residential Property Prices YoY	-	7.3	6.9	6.80	Low
11:00	IE	Residential Property Prices MoM	-	0.6	0.5	0.45	Low
Friday, January 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.1	2.7	2.72	Low
11:00	IE	Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.7	0.67	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.6	0.63	Low
11:00	IE	Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3	2.98	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Balance of Trade	5.16	4.3	6	3.38	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	2.7	3.1	2.7	2.72	Low
11:00	IE	Inflation Rate YoY	2.8	3.2	3	2.98	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	0.6	-0.2	0.6	0.63	Low
11:00	IE	Inflation Rate MoM	0.5	-0.2	0.7	0.67	Low
11:00	IE	HICP YoY	2.7	3.1	2.7	2.70	Low
11:00	IE	HICP MoM	0.6	-0.2	0.6	0.62	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Retail Sales MoM	0.5	-0.6	0.6	0.32	Low
11:00	IE	Retail Sales YoY	2.5	2	2.5	1.80	Low
01:01	IE	Construction PMI	48.4	46.7	47.6	47.73	Low
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Industrial Production YoY	12.7	7.4	8.8	10.75	Low
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	61.2	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Unemployment Rate	-	4.9	4.8	4.77	Low
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Unemployment Rate	5	5	4.8	4.77	Low
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	2.7	3.1	2.9	2.92	Low
11:00	IE	Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	0.6	-0.2	0.7	0.73	Low
01:01	IE	AIB Services PMI	54.8	58.5	58	57.15	Low
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
01:01	IE	AIB Manufacturing PMI	52.2	52.8	53.2	53.10	Low
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Wednesday, December 31, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Monday, December 29, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Friday, December 26, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	IE	Consumer Confidence	-	61	59.1	59.68	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Wholesale Prices MoM	0	0.7	0.9	1.07	Low
11:00	IE	Wholesale Prices YoY	-5.3	-3.5	-4.5	-4.33	Low
Wednesday, December 17, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	IE	Residential Property Prices YoY	7.3	7.5	7.5	7.40	Low
11:00	IE	Residential Property Prices MoM	0.6	0.8	0.7	0.65	Low
11:00	IE	Balance of Trade	4.35	17.53	14	11.38	Low