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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Bank Loan Growth YoY climbed to 16.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
India Bank Loan Growth YoY climbed to 16.1% in April 2026, up 2.3% from March's 13.8% reading. The print exceeded the 12.8% consensus by 3.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 12.15%. Over the past 3 months, Bank Loan Growth YoY averaged 14.0%, vs 11.54% in the prior 3-month window. Bank Loan Growth YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
16.1
Actual
12.8
Consensus
13.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2025
Predicted: 12.5
Actual: 9.5
Error: +3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Bank Loan Growth YoY (India) was reported at 18.3% in August 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 19.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.09%, ranging from 10.3% to 19.3% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.43%, up from the prior three at 17.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.03%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.06%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Bank Loan Growth YoY has averaged 13.56%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Bank Loan Growth YoY - IN
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About Bank Loan Growth YoY — India
DEFINITION
Bank Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total amount of loans issued by banks. It provides insight into the growth or decline of lending activity in the banking sector, which can be an important indicator of overall economic health. A positive Bank Loan Growth YoY suggests a growing economy with increased demand for credit, while a negative growth may indicate a slowing economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 18.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 19.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 17.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |