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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Bank Loan Growth YoY climbed to 19.4% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India Bank Loan Growth YoY climbed to 19.4% in October 2026, up 1.3% from September's 18.1% reading. The print exceeded the 13.3% consensus by 6.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 17.04%. Over the past 3 months, Bank Loan Growth YoY averaged 18.22%, vs 16.7% in the prior 3-month window. Bank Loan Growth YoY is now the highest in 19 months.
Latest Release
19.4
Actual
13.3
Consensus
18.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 13.3
Actual: 19.4
Error: -6.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Bank Loan Growth YoY (India) was reported at 18.2% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 19.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.59%, ranging from 11.3% to 19.4% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.57%, down from the prior three at 18.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.02%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.74%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Bank Loan Growth YoY has averaged 14.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Bank Loan Growth YoY - IN
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About Bank Loan Growth YoY — India
DEFINITION
Bank Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total amount of loans issued by banks. It provides insight into the growth or decline of lending activity in the banking sector, which can be an important indicator of overall economic health. A positive Bank Loan Growth YoY suggests a growing economy with increased demand for credit, while a negative growth may indicate a slowing economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 18.2 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 19.4 %. Before that (Oct 2026): 18.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |