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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 7.8% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
India GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 7.8% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from December's 8.0% reading. The print exceeded the 7.2% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.33%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
7.8
Actual
7.2
Consensus
8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 7.2
Actual: 7.8
Error: -0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/INR | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (India) was reported at 7.8% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 7.2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.93%, up from the prior three at 7.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IN
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — India
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 7.8 %, consensus 7.2 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 7.8 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 8.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.88) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.