India GDP Growth Rate YoY: January 2026 Release
India’s latest GDP growth rate YoY print, released February 27, 2026, shows the economy expanding at 7.8% in January, down from December’s 8.2%. This update offers a window into the country’s economic trajectory as it enters the new year.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing: +0.22pp
- Services: +0.19pp
- Construction: +0.11pp
- Agriculture: -0.04pp
Policy pulse
January’s 7.8% YoY growth remains above the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target range of 6–6.5%[1]. Policymakers have maintained a neutral stance, citing balanced risks to growth and inflation.
Market lens
Equities edged higher on the release, with the Nifty 50 closing up 0.6% as investors welcomed continued resilience in output. The INR held steady near 83.1 per USD, reflecting confidence in India’s macroeconomic fundamentals. Bond yields were little changed, as the data aligned with expectations.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 7.8%
- December 2025: 8.2%
- November 2025: 7.8%
- August 2025: 7.8%
- May 2025: 7.4%
- February 2025: 6.2%
Comparative analysis
The 12-month average GDP growth rate stands at 7.1%. January’s reading is 0.6 percentage points above this trend. Compared to February 2025’s 6.2%, growth has accelerated by 1.6 percentage points over the year. However, the pace has moderated from the 8.4% peak in February 2024.
Sectoral performance
Manufacturing and services remain the primary engines of expansion, while agriculture’s contribution was slightly negative due to erratic monsoon patterns. Construction activity continued to support headline growth, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous quarter.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Growth rebounds above 8% in coming quarters (25–35% probability), driven by investment and export gains.
- Base case: GDP growth stabilizes between 7–7.8% (50–60% probability), as domestic demand holds firm and policy remains supportive.
- Bearish: Growth slips below 7% (10–15% probability) if global headwinds intensify or monsoon disruptions persist.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include a pickup in private capex and stronger services exports. Downside risks stem from external demand softness, commodity price volatility, and weather-related agricultural shocks.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database, which aggregates official data from India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. The YoY growth rate compares real GDP output for January 2026 against January 2025, adjusted for inflation and seasonal effects[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors remain constructive on India’s growth trajectory, with equities and the INR showing resilience post-release. The moderation in GDP growth is viewed as a normalization rather than a reversal, supporting a stable macro backdrop for the months ahead.
Policy pulse
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain its current stance, as growth remains comfortably above target and inflation risks are balanced. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination will be key to sustaining momentum without overheating the economy.
Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate YoY
India’s GDP growth data influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and global risk sentiment. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to India’s growth trajectory, reflecting both domestic and international investor positioning. Each symbol is verified as active and relevant to the GDP growth narrative.
- AAPL – Apple’s India revenue growth has tracked macro trends, with strong GDP prints supporting local demand for premium devices.
- USDINR – The rupee’s stability post-release reflects confidence in India’s economic outlook and moderates capital outflow pressures.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s correlation with emerging market risk sentiment means robust Indian growth can support crypto inflows during risk-on periods.
| Year | GDP Growth Rate YoY (%) | USDINR (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.7 | 74.1 |
| 2022 | 6.6 | 77.7 |
| 2024 | 8.4 | 82.3 |
| 2026 | 7.8 | 83.1 |
Since 2020, periods of higher GDP growth have coincided with a gradual depreciation of the INR, reflecting both domestic expansion and global currency trends.
FAQ
- What is the latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for India?
- India’s GDP Growth Rate YoY for January 2026 is 7.8%, as released on February 27, 2026.
- How does this figure compare to previous months?
- The January reading of 7.8% is down from December’s 8.2%, but remains above the 12-month average of 7.1%.
- Why is the GDP Growth Rate YoY important for investors?
- This indicator signals the pace of economic expansion, influencing equity, currency, and bond markets in India and globally.
India’s GDP growth remains robust, but the pace is moderating from last year’s highs.
Updated 2/28/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, India GDP Growth Rate YoY, accessed February 27, 2026.
January’s 7.8% YoY GDP growth compares to December’s 8.2% and a 12-month average of 7.1%. The current figure marks the third consecutive month above 7.5%, but also the second straight month of deceleration from the recent high.
February 2024’s 8.4% remains the cycle peak, while the latest print is 1.6 percentage points higher than the same month last year. The trend since August 2025 (7.8%) shows a plateauing of growth momentum, with volatility narrowing compared to the prior year.