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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 7.8% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
India GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 7.8% in April 2026, released August 2026. The print exceeded the 7.1% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.27%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
7.8
Actual
7.1
Consensus
7.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 7.4
Actual: 7.8
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/INR | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (India) was reported at 7.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 7.1% by 0.7%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.8%, unchanged from the prior three. In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 7.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IN
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — India
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 7.8 %, consensus 7.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 7.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 7.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.88) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |