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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Government Budget Value fell to -7,144.1B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
India Government Budget Value fell to -7,144.1B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 41.6B from August's -7,102.5B reading. The reading missed the -6,800B consensus by 344.1B. Government Budget Value has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Government Budget Value averaged -5,826.95B, vs -2,987B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-7144.1
Actual
-6800
Consensus
-7102.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,787.39 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -6,538.48
Actual: -7,144.1
Error: +605.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/INR | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Budget Value (India) was reported at -7,144.10 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6,800.00 billion by 344.10 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -7,102.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6,814.22 billion, ranging from -12,526.50 billion to -1,624.00 billion across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6,266.00 billion, down from the prior three at -2,775.00 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3,068.93 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 4,081.75 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Government Budget Value has averaged -6,159.73 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with NIFTY 50, negatively correlated (Bearish NIFTY 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,787.39 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Government Budget Value - IN
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About Government Budget Value — India
DEFINITION
The Government Budget Value is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money the government has allocated for its expenditures and revenues within a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insights into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its finances effectively. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and economists to assess the government's fiscal policies and their impact on the overall economy. A positive budget value indicates a surplus, while a negative value indicates a deficit. This indicator is crucial in understanding the government's financial priorities and its impact on the country's economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -7,144.1 B, consensus -6,800 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -7,102.5 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -4,551.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | IN | Government Budget Value | -7144.1 | -7102.5 | -6800 | -6972.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.7 | 54.50 | Low | |