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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Government Budget Value fell to -4,551.4B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
India Government Budget Value fell to -4,551.4B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1,473.4B from June's -3,078B reading. The print exceeded the -7,000B consensus by 2,448.6B. Government Budget Value has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Government Budget Value averaged -2,351B, vs -6,590.83B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4551.4
Actual
-7000
Consensus
-3078
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,458 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -5,450.5
Actual: -4,551.4
Error: -899.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/INR | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Budget Value (India) was reported at -4,551.40 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -7,000.00 billion by 2,448.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -3,078.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6,682.18 billion, ranging from -12,526.50 billion to -1,624.00 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3,084.47 billion, up from the prior three at -8,654.50 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3,209.81 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3,970.96 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Government Budget Value has averaged -4,001.70 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with NIFTY 50, negatively correlated (Bearish NIFTY 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,458.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Government Budget Value - IN
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About Government Budget Value — India
DEFINITION
The Government Budget Value is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money the government has allocated for its expenditures and revenues within a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insights into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its finances effectively. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and economists to assess the government's fiscal policies and their impact on the overall economy. A positive budget value indicates a surplus, while a negative value indicates a deficit. This indicator is crucial in understanding the government's financial priorities and its impact on the country's economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -4,551.4 B, consensus -7,000 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -3,078 B. Before that (May 2026): -1,624 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |