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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Government Budget Value climbed to -3,623B in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
India Government Budget Value climbed to -3,623B in March 2026, released June 2026, up 11,568.7B from February's -15,191.7B reading. The reading missed the -1,700B consensus by 1,923B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -6,799.22B. Government Budget Value is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-3623
Actual
-1700
Consensus
-15191.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,458 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1,413.25
Actual: -3,623
Error: +2,209.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Bearish NIFTY 50 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Budget Value (India) was reported at -3,623.00 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1,700.00 billion by 1,923.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -15,191.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6,533.97 billion, ranging from -12,526.50 billion to -131.60 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -8,654.50 billion, up from the prior three at -8,858.70 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3,462.68 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 4,156.14 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Government Budget Value has averaged -1,590.92 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with NIFTY 50, negatively correlated (Bearish NIFTY 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,458.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Government Budget Value - IN
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About Government Budget Value — India
DEFINITION
The Government Budget Value is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money the government has allocated for its expenditures and revenues within a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insights into the financial health of a country and its ability to manage its finances effectively. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and economists to assess the government's fiscal policies and their impact on the overall economy. A positive budget value indicates a surplus, while a negative value indicates a deficit. This indicator is crucial in understanding the government's financial priorities and its impact on the country's economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -3,623 B, consensus -1,700 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -3,623 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -12,526.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.