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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 7.8% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
India Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 7.8% in January 2026, released August 2026. The print exceeded the 7.1% consensus by 0.7%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
7.8
Actual
7.1
Consensus
7.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.6 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 7.4
Actual: 7.8
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (India) was reported at 7.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 7.1% by 0.7%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.8%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bullish INR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IN
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — India
DEFINITION
India's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 7.800000%, matching the previous 7.800000% for August 2026 and beating the 7.100000% estimate. The economy maintained steady growth compared to June 2026's 7.800000%, indicating stable expansion. Market pricing and central bank stance remain aligned with this consistent growth trajectory. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 7.8 %, consensus 7.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 7.8 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 7.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bullish INR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |