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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 7.8% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
India Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 7.8% in October 2025, released June 2026, down 0.2% from September's 8.0% reading. The print exceeded the 7.2% consensus by 0.6%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
7.8
Actual
7.2
Consensus
8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 7.2
Actual: 7.8
Error: -0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish INR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (India) was reported at 7.8% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 7.2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.93%, up from the prior three at 7.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/INR (Bullish INR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MPC Meeting Minutes (Jun 19) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IN
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — India
DEFINITION
India's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May 2026 came in at 7.800000%, matching the previous 7.800000% and beating the 7.200000% estimate. May's growth held steady from February's 7.800000%, indicating stable economic expansion. Market focus now shifts to upcoming policy decisions amid steady growth. Updated 6/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 7.8 %, consensus 7.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 7.8 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 8.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/INR (Bullish INR, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.