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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Interest Rate Decision held to 5.25% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
India Interest Rate Decision held to 5.25% in August 2026. The reading matched the 5.25% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.78%. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 142 months.
Latest Release
5.25
Actual
5.25
Consensus
5.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 5.25
Actual: 5.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (India) was reported at 5.25% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.25%, down from the prior three at 5.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - IN
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About Interest Rate Decision — India
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5.25 %, consensus 5.25 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.25 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.66) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |