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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Manufacturing Output MoM fell to 3.4% in April 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2025
India Manufacturing Output MoM fell to 3.4% in April 2025, released May 2025, down 0.6% from March's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.0% consensus by 0.4%. Manufacturing Output MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3
Consensus
4
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Output MoM (India) was reported at 7.8% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.65%, ranging from 1.8% to 8.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.5%, up from the prior three at 6.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.82%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.91%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Manufacturing Output MoM - IN
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About Manufacturing Output MoM — India
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Output MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a significant contributor to overall economic activity. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the strength of the economy and make informed decisions. A positive MoM growth in manufacturing output indicates a thriving sector, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 5.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 6.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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