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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IndiaIndia Manufacturing Output MoM fell to 3.4% in April 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2025
India Manufacturing Output MoM fell to 3.4% in April 2025, released May 2025, down 0.6% from March's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.0% consensus by 0.4%. Manufacturing Output MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3
Consensus
4
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/INR | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NIFTY 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Output MoM (India) was reported at 7.3% in August 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.83%, ranging from 1.8% to 8.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.87%, up from the prior three at 5.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.87%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.07%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/INR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Manufacturing Output MoM - IN
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About Manufacturing Output MoM — India
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Output MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a significant contributor to overall economic activity. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the strength of the economy and make informed decisions. A positive MoM growth in manufacturing output indicates a thriving sector, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 7.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.29 | 8.5 | 9.11 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.78 | 9.89 | 10.04 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.65 | 6.7 | 7.38 | Low |
| 06:30 | IN | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 20.05 | 15 | 18.31 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Low |
| 10:30 | IN | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.44 | 4.8 | 4.81 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IN | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -33 | -33.61 | Medium | |
| 10:30 | IN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.30 | Low | |