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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Balance of Trade fell to 1.77B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Balance of Trade fell to 1.77B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 6.47B from July's 8.25B reading. The reading missed the 7.5B consensus by 5.73B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.99B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 6.24B, vs 4.6B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
1.773
Actual
7.5
Consensus
8.247
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.54 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 8.24
Actual: 1.77
Error: +6.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Italy) was reported at 1.77 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.50 billion by 5.73 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.25 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.70 billion, ranging from 1.09 billion to 8.39 billion across 15 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.75 billion, up from the prior three at 4.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.10 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.11 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 1.75 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.54 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IT
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About Balance of Trade — Italy
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.773 M, consensus 7.5 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 8.24 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.232 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |