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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Balance of Trade fell to 4.23B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Italy Balance of Trade fell to 4.23B in June 2026, released August 2026, down 0.71B from May's 4.95B reading. The reading missed the 4.74B consensus by 0.51B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.64B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 4.6B, vs 3.55B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.232
Actual
4.74
Consensus
4.946
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.51 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.56
Actual: 4.23
Error: +0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Italy) was reported at 4.23 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.74 billion by 0.51 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.95 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.69 billion, ranging from 1.09 billion to 8.39 billion across 15 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.44 billion, up from the prior three at 3.78 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.04 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.02 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 4.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.51 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IT
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About Balance of Trade — Italy
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.232 M, consensus 4.74 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.793 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.293 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.87) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |