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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Balance of Trade climbed to 4.94 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Italy Balance of Trade climbed to 4.94 in February 2026, released April 2026, up 3.82 from January's 1.13 reading. The print exceeded the 3.83 consensus by 1.11. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.48. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 4.41, vs 4.81 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.944
Actual
3.83
Consensus
1.129
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.99 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 6.37
Actual: 1.09
Error: +5.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The April 2026 reading rose from the previous value of 1.13. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±1.99. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC) and negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR).
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Balance of Trade - IT
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Friday, May 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.15 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | CPI YoY | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.75 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | CPI MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.15 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | HICP MoM | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low |
| Monday, May 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.944 | 5.2 | 5.97 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Construction Output YoY | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.10 | Low | |