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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Balance of Trade climbed to 4.79B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Balance of Trade climbed to 4.79B in May 2026, released July 2026, up 0.37B from April's 4.42B reading. The print exceeded the 4.5B consensus by 0.29B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.41B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 4.5B, vs 4.52B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.793
Actual
4.5
Consensus
4.421
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.51 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.15
Actual: 4.79
Error: -0.64
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Italy) was reported at 4.79 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.50 billion by 0.29 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.42 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.77 billion, ranging from 1.09 billion to 8.39 billion across 15 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.60 billion, up from the prior three at 2.91 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.04 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.00 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 5.80 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.51 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - IT
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About Balance of Trade — Italy
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.793 M, consensus 4.5 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.293 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.709 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.87) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |