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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Current Account fell to 594M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Current Account fell to 594M in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1,954M from April's 2,548M reading. The reading missed the 2,500M consensus by 1,906M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3,288.25M. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged 2,003M, vs 911.25M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
594
Actual
2500
Consensus
2548
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±927 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2,829
Actual: 594
Error: +2,235
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Italy) was reported at 594.00 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2,500.00 million by 1,906.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 2,548.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2,787.45 million, ranging from -1,785.00 million to 8,693.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1,533.33 million, up from the prior three at -3.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2,897.13 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 2,603.80 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged 1,445.67 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 927.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Current Account - IT
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About Current Account — Italy
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 594 M, consensus 2,500 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2,258 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 1,748 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DAX, r=0.86) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |