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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Full Year GDP Growth held to 0.5% in March 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased March 2026
Italy Full Year GDP Growth held to 0.5% in March 2026. The reading matched the 0.5% consensus. Full Year GDP Growth has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Full Year GDP Growth is now the lowest in 48 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Year GDP Growth (Italy) was reported at 0.5% in March 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Full Year GDP Growth has averaged 0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Full Year GDP Growth - IT
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About Full Year GDP Growth — Italy
DEFINITION
Full Year GDP Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the overall growth of a country's economy over the course of a year. It takes into account the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders and is a crucial measure of economic health and stability. A high Full Year GDP Growth indicates a strong and growing economy, while a low or negative growth rate may signal economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic performance of a country.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2025): 0.7 %. Before that (Mar 2024): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.