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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.14%. GDP Growth Rate QoQ is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: 0.2
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Italy) was reported at 0.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.16%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.3% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - IT
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — Italy
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |