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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the 0.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.16%. GDP Growth Rate QoQ is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Italy) was reported at 0.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from 0% to 0.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.15%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - IT
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — Italy
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |