Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 0.8% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 0.8% in January 2026, released May 2026. The print exceeded the 0.7% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.58%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 19 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Italy) was reported at 0.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.6%, ranging from 0.4% to 0.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.8%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
GDP Growth Rate YoY - IT
Loading chart data...
About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.52) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.