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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.8% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.8% in July 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from June's 1.0% reading. The reading missed the 0.9% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.69%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.9
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.15
Actual: 1
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Italy) was reported at 0.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.77%, ranging from 0.4% to 1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, up from the prior three at 0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - IT
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |