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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Government Budget climbed to -3.1% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Italy Government Budget climbed to -3.1% in March 2026, up 0.3% from February's -3.4% reading. The reading matched the -3.0% consensus. Government Budget has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Government Budget is now the highest in 60 months.
Latest Release
-3.1
Actual
-3
Consensus
-3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -3
Actual: -3.1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Budget (Italy) was reported at -3.1% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -4.57%, up from the prior three at -8.23%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Government Budget has averaged -4.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Government Budget - IT
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About Government Budget — Italy
DEFINITION
Deficit The Government Budget Deficit is a financial indicator that measures the amount by which a government's expenditures exceed its revenues in a given period of time. It reflects the financial health of a country's government and can have significant impacts on its economy, including inflation and interest rates. A high budget deficit may indicate a need for increased borrowing or tax increases, while a low deficit may suggest a strong economy and prudent fiscal management. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can provide insights into a government's spending and revenue patterns, and its overall fiscal sustainability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -3.1 %, consensus -3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2025): -3.4 %. Before that (Mar 2024): -7.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |