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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.17%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Italy) was reported at 0.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.3% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jul 31) and Consumer Confidence (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IT
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 0.200000% in Q2 2026, beating the 0.100000% estimate but down from Q1's 0.300000%. The economy showed slower growth compared to the previous quarter, indicating a deceleration in momentum. Market focus will remain on upcoming data for signs of sustained expansion amid cautious central bank monitoring. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 88.4 | 88.9 | 88.90 | Medium | |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 92.4 | 92.5 | 92.50 | Medium | |