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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Gross Domestic Product QoQ held to 0.3% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Gross Domestic Product QoQ held to 0.3% in Q1 2026, released May 2026. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.15%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Italy) was reported at 0.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.11%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IT
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 0.300000% in April, matching the previous month's pace and beating the 0.200000% estimate. April's 0.3% growth followed March's 0.3%, indicating steady economic expansion. Market focus remains on upcoming data for further momentum assessment. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.