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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.2% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the 0.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.18%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Italy) was reported at 0.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from 0% to 0.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - IT
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Gross Domestic Product QoQ came in at 0.200000% for Q2 2026, matching estimates but down from Q1's 0.300000%. The economy showed a slowdown in growth, with Q2 maintaining the same level as Q4 2025's 0.200000%. Market focus remains on upcoming data releases and ECB policy decisions amid this steady but reduced expansion. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |