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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 0.8% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 0.8% in January 2026, released May 2026. The print exceeded the 0.7% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.62%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Italy) was reported at 0.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.6%, ranging from 0.4% to 0.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.8%, up from the prior three at 0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IT
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Gross Domestic Product YoY for April came in at 0.800000%, matching the previous month's reading of 0.800000% and beating the 0.700000% estimate. April's data shows stable economic growth compared to March, maintaining the same level of expansion. Market focus remains on upcoming economic indicators and central bank policy amid steady GDP performance. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.