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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from March's 0.8% reading. The reading matched the 1.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.67%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.15
Actual: 1
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Italy) was reported at 1% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.77%, ranging from 0.4% to 1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, up from the prior three at 0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IT
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Gross Domestic Product YoY for July registered at 1.000000%, matching estimates and up from June's 0.800000%. This marks a clear acceleration in annual growth, reflecting stronger economic momentum compared to the previous month. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases and central bank signals amid this steady expansion. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |