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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.0% in April 2026, released July 2026, up 0.2% from March's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.7% consensus by 0.3%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.75
Actual: 1
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Italy) was reported at 1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.69%, ranging from 0.4% to 1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.87%, up from the prior three at 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - IT
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Gross Domestic Product YoY for May registered at 1.000000%, beating the 0.700000% estimate and rising from April's 0.700000%. This marks a clear acceleration in annual growth, signaling stronger economic momentum. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and ECB policy adjustments amid this upward trend. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |