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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.1% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.1% from July's -1.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.5%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged -0.36%, vs 1.22% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.1% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.14%, ranging from -1% to 1.6% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.27%, up from the prior three at -0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.76%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.69%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - IT
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |