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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -1.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -1.0% in July 2026, down 1.0% from June's 0.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.48%, vs 0.59% in the prior 3-month window. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
-1
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.09
Actual: 0
Error: +0.09
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Italy) was reported at -1% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -1% to 1.6% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, down from the prior three at 1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.78%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.48%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - IT
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1 %, consensus -1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |