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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.4% in May 2026, down 1.2% from April's 1.6% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 1.28%, vs -0.36% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 68th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -1% to 1.6% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.2%, up from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.78%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - IT
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.