Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.3% from July's 2.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.66%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.02%, vs 2.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3.2
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.2
Actual: 3.2
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Italy) was reported at 3.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.2% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.03%, ranging from 1% to 3.3% across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.1%, up from the prior three at 3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.87%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.38%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - IT
Loading chart data...
About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |