Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.3% in May 2026, up 0.5% from April's 2.8% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.54%. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 1.98%, vs 1.1% in the prior 3-month window. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.2
Actual: 3.3
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Italy) was reported at 3.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.61%, ranging from 1% to 3.3% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.53%, up from the prior three at 1.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.53%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.44%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 1.95%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - IT
Loading chart data...
About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.