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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 5.6% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 5.6% in October 2026, up 1.4% from September's 4.2% reading. The print came in hotter than the 4.6% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.52%, vs 3.05% in the prior 3-month window. Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
5.6
Actual
4.6
Consensus
4.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.14
Actual: 4.2
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Italy) was reported at 5.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.6% by 1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.26%, ranging from 1% to 4.2% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.83%, up from the prior three at 3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.06%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 1.82%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - IT
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 5.6 %, consensus 4.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 4.2 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |