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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HCOB Composite PMI climbed to 52.1 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Italy HCOB Composite PMI climbed to 52.1 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.7 from January's 51.4 reading. The reading matched the 51.6 consensus. HCOB Composite PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Composite PMI averaged 50.85, vs 52.87 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52.1
Actual
51.6
Consensus
51.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.98
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 51.05
Actual: 52.1
Error: -1.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Composite PMI (Italy) was reported at 52.10 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.60 by 0.50. The reading rose from the previous value of 51.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.95, ranging from 50.30 to 53.80 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 51.27, down from the prior three at 52.87. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.01) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.97). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Composite PMI has averaged 51.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.98.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Composite PMI - IT
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About HCOB Composite PMI — Italy
DEFINITION
The HCOB Composite PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the economy. It combines data from various sectors, including manufacturing, services, and construction, to provide a comprehensive assessment of economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can provide valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high HCOB Composite PMI indicates strong economic growth, while a low reading may signal a potential slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 52.1, consensus 51.6. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 51.4. Before that (Dec 2025): 50.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.