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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HCOB Construction PMI climbed to 50.4 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Italy HCOB Construction PMI climbed to 50.4 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 2.7 from January's 47.7 reading. The reading matched the 48.5 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 2.2. Over the past 3 months, HCOB Construction PMI averaged 47.8, vs 49.57 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.4
Actual
48.5
Consensus
47.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.05
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 48.08
Actual: 50.4
Error: -2.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HCOB Construction PMI (Italy) was reported at 50.40 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 48.50 by 1.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.84, ranging from 47.70 to 50.70 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 48.67, down from the prior three at 49.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.30). In March readings over the past 3 years, HCOB Construction PMI has averaged 49.63.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.05.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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HCOB Construction PMI - IT
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About HCOB Construction PMI — Italy
DEFINITION
HCOB Construction PMI is a leading economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the construction sector. It provides valuable insights into the health of the construction industry, including trends in new orders, employment, and business expectations. This indicator is widely used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about the overall state of the economy and the construction sector. With its timely and accurate data, HCOB Construction PMI is a crucial tool for monitoring and forecasting economic growth and identifying potential risks in the construction industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 50.4, consensus 48.5. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 47.7. Before that (Dec 2025): 47.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |