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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HICP MoM fell to -1.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Italy HICP MoM fell to -1.0% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.0% from June's 0.0% reading. The reading matched the -1.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.54%. Over the past 3 months, HICP MoM averaged 0.23%, vs 0.59% in the prior 3-month window. HICP MoM is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
-1
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -1.02
Actual: -1
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
HICP MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.1% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -1% to 1.6% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.63%, down from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.77%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.76%). In September readings over the past 3 years, HICP MoM has averaged 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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HICP MoM - IT
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About HICP MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's HICP MoM rose 0.100000% in August, reversing July's -1.000000% decline. August's inflation increase signals a shift from contraction to mild expansion in consumer prices. Market focus now turns to upcoming ECB policy decisions amid this inflation uptick. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |