Italy’s HICP YoY inflation surged to 1.60% in February 2026, beating the 1.10% consensus and rising sharply from January’s 1.00%. This marks the steepest monthly acceleration since October 2025, driven by gains in energy and food prices. Bond yields jumped and the euro strengthened as markets recalibrated inflation expectations amid renewed price pressures. Updated 3/3/26
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Hicp YOY - IT
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Italy’s HICP YoY inflation jumped to 1.6% in February 2026, up from 1.0% in January. This marks the sharpest monthly acceleration since October 2025, with energy and food prices leading the gains. The reading overshoots consensus and the ECB’s 2% target remains distant, but the upward surprise has caught markets off guard.
Italy HICP YoY Surges to 1.6% in February: Inflation Rebounds Sharply
Italy’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) YoY inflation rate surged in February 2026, breaking a months-long trend of subdued price growth. The latest data release signals renewed inflationary pressures, with implications for monetary policy and market sentiment.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Energy: +0.22pp
Food: +0.18pp
Transport: +0.11pp
Clothing: +0.05pp
Recreation: -0.03pp
Policy pulse
Italy’s 1.6% HICP YoY reading for February 2026 stands well below the European Central Bank’s 2% target, but the pace of acceleration is notable. The previous month’s figure was 1.0%, and the 12-month average sits at 1.25%[1].
Market lens
Bond yields spiked on the upside surprise. Italian government bonds sold off as traders recalibrated inflation expectations. The euro strengthened modestly against major peers, reflecting a reassessment of the region’s inflation trajectory.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February’s 1.6% YoY print reverses a softening trend seen since October 2025, when inflation stood at 1.8%. November and December both registered 1.1%, while January 2026 marked a low at 1.0%[1].
Comparative perspective
The latest figure outpaces the Eurozone average for January 2026, which was 2.8%[1]. Italy’s inflation remains below the bloc’s mean, but the gap has narrowed sharply.
Methodology
The HICP measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services, harmonised across EU member states. Data is compiled by Istat and Eurostat, using a chain-linked Laspeyres index[1].
Chart Dynamics
February’s 1.6% HICP YoY marks a 0.6 percentage point jump from January’s 1.0% and sits above the 12-month average of 1.25%. The last time inflation rose this sharply month-over-month was in October 2025, when the index hit 1.8%. Over the past six months, readings have ranged from 1.1% to 1.8%, with February’s result breaking the recent pattern of stability.
HICP YoY trend, October 2025–February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The February surge breaks a four-month streak of subdued inflation, signaling renewed price momentum. The sharp uptick, driven by energy and food, suggests underlying pressures are re-emerging. If sustained, this could challenge the ECB’s narrative of disinflation and prompt a market rethink on rate trajectories.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
Bullish (20–30%): Inflation stabilizes above 1.5% as energy costs remain elevated and wage growth picks up.
Base (50–60%): HICP YoY moderates toward the 1.2–1.4% range by mid-2026, tracking seasonal patterns and easing supply bottlenecks.
Bearish (15–25%): Price growth slips back below 1% if commodity prices retreat and domestic demand softens.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks stem from volatile energy markets and potential fiscal stimulus. Downside risks include a slowdown in consumer spending and global disinflationary forces.
Data source
Figures sourced from Istat, Eurostat, and the Sigmanomics database[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Italian equities underperformed regional peers after the inflation surprise. Financials and consumer discretionary stocks led declines, while defensive sectors showed resilience. The euro’s modest appreciation reflects shifting rate expectations.
Policy pulse
The ECB’s 2% inflation target remains out of reach for Italy, but the February print narrows the gap. Policymakers face renewed scrutiny as price pressures re-emerge.
Key Markets Reacting to HICP YoY
Italy’s inflation surprise has triggered swift reactions across asset classes. Bond yields rose, equities wobbled, and the euro gained ground. Traders are recalibrating their outlooks for Italian and Eurozone assets as inflation momentum returns.
AAPL: Sensitive to Eurozone consumer demand and currency swings, with Italian inflation shifts impacting revenue outlooks.
EURUSD: Directly influenced by inflation data, with the euro strengthening on upside surprises.
BTCUSD: Often viewed as an inflation hedge, with price action tracking shifts in fiat currency sentiment.
Year
HICP YoY (%)
EURUSD Trend
2020
0.2
Appreciating
2022
8.7
Depreciating
2024
0.9
Stable
2026 (Feb)
1.6
Appreciating
Since 2020, periods of rising Italian HICP YoY have coincided with EURUSD appreciation, while inflation troughs saw the pair stabilize or weaken. The February 2026 jump reinforced this pattern, with the euro gaining ground post-release.
FAQ
What is the main takeaway from Italy’s February 2026 HICP YoY inflation report?
Italy’s HICP YoY inflation accelerated to 1.6% in February, marking the sharpest monthly increase since October 2025 and signaling renewed price pressures.
How does the February 2026 figure compare to recent months?
The 1.6% reading is up from 1.0% in January and above the 12-month average of 1.25%, reversing a trend of subdued inflation since late 2025.
What does the latest HICP YoY data mean for markets and policy?
The upside surprise has pushed bond yields higher and strengthened the euro, with markets reassessing the inflation outlook and ECB policy trajectory.
Italy’s inflation pulse has quickened, catching markets off guard and raising the stakes for policymakers.
Updated 3/3/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] Sigmanomics database, Istat, Eurostat. HICP YoY data for Italy, October 2025–February 2026. Release date: March 3, 2026.
Economic Calendar - IT Events
Friday, March 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-0.6
2.7
0.8
1.23
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.6
-0.5
0.3
0.38
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.7
0.6
0.43
Medium
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
1.1
1
1.10
Low
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.4
47.7
48.5
48.53
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.85
Low
10:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.32
Low
10:00
IT
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.32
Low
10:00
IT
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.85
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5.5
5.6
5.42
Medium
09:00
IT
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.85
Low
09:00
IT
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.1
51.4
51.6
51.32
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.3
52.9
52.6
52.18
Medium
08:45
IT
Services PMI
52.3
52.9
52.6
52.37
Medium
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
14
6.2
4.3
8.03
Low
12:20
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
14
6.2
4.3
8.03
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1
1.1
1.20
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.40
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
-1
0.2
0.27
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
1
1.1
1.18
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.38
Low
10:00
IT
HICP MoM
0.6
-1
0.1
0.18
Low
10:00
IT
HICP YoY
1.6
1
1.1
1.18
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Government Budget
-3.1
-3.4
-3
-3.05
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.6
48.1
49
48.77
Medium
08:45
IT
Manufacturing PMI
50.6
48.1
49
48.85
Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.6
0.62
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
3.6
-0.2
0.4
0.43
Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.5
89.2
89.5
89.27
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
97.4
96.8
96.4
96.63
Medium
Monday, February 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1
1.10
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.50
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1
0.2
-1
-0.93
Low
09:00
IT
CPI
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
09:00
IT
HICP MoM
-1
0.2
-1
-0.92
Low
09:00
IT
HICP YoY
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
02:00
IT
CPI
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
02:00
IT
HICP MoM
-1
0.2
-1
-0.92
Low
02:00
IT
HICP YoY
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.037
5.056
4.5
5.12
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.4
1.5
-0.8
-0.72
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
3.2
1.4
1.2
1.63
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
1.3
1.4
1.50
Low
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.8
0.5
0.4
0.23
Medium
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
47.7
47.9
48.4
48.43
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.40
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1
0.2
-1
-0.93
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
0.9
1.00
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
1
1.2
1
1.08
Low
10:00
IT
HICP MoM
-1
0.2
-1
-0.92
Low
10:00
IT
HICP YoY
1
1.2
0.9
0.98
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.4
50.3
50.7
50.42
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.9
51.5
51.9
51.48
Medium
08:45
IT
Services PMI
52.9
51.5
51.3
51.07
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
6.2
2.2
3.2
6.93
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.1
47.9
48.8
48.57
Medium
08:45
IT
Manufacturing PMI
48.1
47.9
48.5
48.35
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.33
Low
11:00
IT
Producer Price Index YoY
-1.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.47
Low
10:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
5.6
5.7
5.9
5.72
Medium
09:30
IT
Unemployment Rate
5.6
5.6
5.9
5.72
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.23
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.65
High
09:00
IT
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.55
Low
09:00
IT
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.22
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
0
1.7
2
2.03
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.6
0.4
0.42
Low
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
89.2
88.5
88.7
88.47
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.8
96.6
97
97.23
Medium
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
-
3.4
3.2
3.45
Low
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:15
IT
Construction Output YoY
-
3.4
3.2
3.45
Low
09:00
IT
Current Account
-1333
3532
-1800
-1550.25
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Balance of Trade
-
4.156
3.6
4.22
Medium
10:00
IT
Current Account
-
3532
-1800
-1550.25
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.30
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.28
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.27
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.30
Low
09:00
IT
HICP MoM
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.28
Low
09:00
IT
HICP YoY
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.28
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
1.4
-0.2
-0.6
-0.17
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
1.5
-1
0.5
0.58
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.60
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.13
High
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
5.7
5.8
6
5.82
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.30
Medium
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.20
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.28
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.17
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.18
Low
10:00
IT
HICP YoY
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.28
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
-
6
6
5.82
High
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
47.9
48.2
48.9
48.93
Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
S&P Global Services PMI
-
55
54.7
54.70
Low
08:45
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI
-
53.8
53.2
53.20
Low
08:45
IT
Services PMI
51.5
55
54.2
53.97
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.3
53.8
53.2
52.92
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.5
55
54.7
54.28
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
2.2
0
2.5
6.23
Low
15:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
2.2
0
2.5
6.23
Low
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.9
50.6
50.2
49.97
Medium
08:45
IT
Manufacturing PMI
47.9
50.6
50
49.85
Medium
Monday, December 22, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Producer Price Index YoY
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
-0.77
Low
09:00
IT
Producer Price Index MoM
1
-0.2
0.5
0.33
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
3.4
5
2.9
3.15
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
1.7
3.4
2.7
2.73
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.5
1.9
-1.2
-1.18
Low
10:00
IT
Current Account
3532
3412
3000
3249.75
Low
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.6
95
96
96.23
Medium
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
-
4.4
2.9
3.15
Low
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.4
89.5
89.3
89.07
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
-0.2
-0.13
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.3
-0.2
-0.10
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
-
1.3
1.1
1.18
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
-
1.2
1.2
1.30
Low
10:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.156
2.968
3.22
3.84
Medium
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
-
2.852
3.2
3.82
Medium
09:00
IT
HICP MoM
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.12
Low
09:00
IT
HICP YoY
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.18
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.30
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.10
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.18
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.13
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Italy HICP Inflation Rises Sharply to 1.60 Percent The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures inflation by tracking changes in prices of goods and services across the Eurozone. Italy’s HICP inflation rate increased to 1.60% in February 2026, up from 1.00% in January, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.10%. This 0.60 percentage point rise marks the strongest acceleration since October 2025, reflecting renewed upward pressure on prices. The increase was largely driven by higher energy and food costs, which have contributed significantly to the inflation rebound. Market reactions were swift, with Italian government bond yields rising and the euro strengthening against major currencies. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted, “This unexpected inflation jump signals that price pressures may be more persistent than previously thought, complicating the ECB’s path forward.” The data suggests policymakers will need to closely monitor inflation trends as they consider future monetary policy adjustments.
