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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HICP YoY climbed to 3.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy HICP YoY climbed to 3.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.3% from July's 2.9% reading. The reading matched the 3.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.53%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 3.02%, vs 2.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 95th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3.2
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.19
Actual: 3.2
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Italy) was reported at 3.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.2% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.01%, ranging from 1% to 3.3% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, down from the prior three at 3.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.91%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In September readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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HICP YoY - IT
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About HICP YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's HICP YoY for August came in at 3.200000%, matching estimates and rising from July's 2.900000%. This increase signals a renewed acceleration in inflation after two months near 2.9%. Market focus will remain on ECB policy amid persistent inflation pressures. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |