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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HICP YoY climbed to 3.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy HICP YoY climbed to 3.3% in May 2026, up 0.5% from April's 2.8% reading. The reading matched the 3.2% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.53%. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 1.98%, vs 1.08% in the prior 3-month window. HICP YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.25
Actual: 3.3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Italy) was reported at 3.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.61%, ranging from 1% to 3.3% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.53%, up from the prior three at 1.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.53%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In May readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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HICP YoY - IT
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About HICP YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's HICP YoY rose to 3.300000% in May, beating the 3.200000% estimate and up from April's 2.800000%. This acceleration signals a faster inflation pace compared to the previous month. Market focus will remain on ECB policy as inflation pressures intensify ahead of upcoming data releases. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.