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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly HICP YoY fell to 2.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy HICP YoY fell to 2.9% in July 2026, down 0.1% from June's 3.0% reading. The reading matched the 2.8% consensus. HICP YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HICP YoY averaged 3.08%, vs 1.51% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.8
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.09
Actual: 3
Error: +0.09
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HICP YoY (Italy) was reported at 2.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.8%, ranging from 1% to 3.3% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.1%, up from the prior three at 2.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.74%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In July readings over the past 3 years, HICP YoY has averaged 2.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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HICP YoY - IT
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About HICP YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's HICP YoY for June came in at 3.000000%, missing the 3.100000% estimate and down from May's 3.200000%. The inflation rate shows a deceleration compared to the previous month, indicating easing price pressures. Market focus remains on ECB policy adjustments amid this moderation. Updated 7/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |