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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.7% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.7% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.8% from June's -1.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.02%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.65%, vs 0.43% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.73 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.05
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.05%, ranging from -2.4% to 2.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.34%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.37%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - IT
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About Industrial Production MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -1 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |