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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.7% from April's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the -0.2% consensus by 0.1%. Industrial Production MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.6%, vs 0.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Italy) was reported at -0.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -2.4% to 2.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.29%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - IT
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About Industrial Production MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.65) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |