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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Industrial Production YoY held to 1.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy Industrial Production YoY held to 1.1% in May 2026, released July 2026. The reading missed the 1.3% consensus by 0.2%. Industrial Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 1.4%, vs 1.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.55
Actual: 1.1
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Italy) was reported at 1.1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.58%, ranging from -2.7% to 3.2% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.3%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.51%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.85%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged -1.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Retail Sales MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - IT
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About Industrial Production YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.6 | 88.9 | 89.25 | Medium |
| 08:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.4 | 92.5 | 93.35 | Medium |