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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.4% in May 2026, down 0.7% from April's 1.1% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.1% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.8%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.1
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.11
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.29
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.21%, ranging from -0.3% to 1.1% across 22 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.67%, up from the prior three at 0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.21%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.32%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - IT
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.