New Car Registrations Yoy - IT Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Italy New Car Registrations YoY
0
Actual
1.5
Consensus
-0.6
Previous
Italy’s New Car Registrations YoY for December 2025 came in at 0.00%, missing the 1.50% estimate but improving from November’s -0.60%. This zero growth reading signals stabilization after two months of contraction, indicating a pause rather than expansion in the market. Looking ahead, persistent monetary tightening and geopolitical risks suggest subdued demand, while structural shifts toward electric vehicles and supply normalization may support gradual recovery. Updated 12/2/25
New Car Registrations Yoy - IT
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Italy’s New Car Registrations YoY: December 2025 Analysis and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Takeaways: Italy’s new car registrations YoY for December 2025 registered at 0.00%, missing the 1.50% estimate but improving from November’s -0.60%. This signals a stabilization after recent declines. Monetary tightening, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical uncertainties weigh on demand. Structural shifts toward electric vehicles and supply chain normalization remain key long-term drivers. Market reaction was muted, reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent macro risks.
Italy’s new car registrations YoY for December 2025 came in at 0.00%, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a notable improvement from November’s -0.60% but falls short of the 1.50% consensus forecast. The data covers the entire Italian market and reflects registrations reported up to December 2, 2025.
Drivers this month
Stabilization in consumer demand after two months of contraction.
Lingering inflation pressures and higher financing costs tempering purchases.
Policy pulse
The reading remains below Italy’s pre-pandemic average growth rate of roughly 2.50% YoY, indicating subdued recovery momentum. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent rate hikes to combat inflation continue to tighten financial conditions, impacting auto loans and leasing costs.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/USD pair dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Italian government bond yields rose modestly by 3 basis points, signaling slight risk repricing.
New car registrations serve as a key barometer of consumer confidence, disposable income, and credit availability in Italy. The 0.00% YoY growth contrasts with the 4.10% and 4.20% expansions recorded in October 2025, underscoring a recent slowdown.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s cumulative 175 basis point rate hikes since mid-2024 have increased borrowing costs. Auto loans, which constitute a significant share of vehicle purchases, have become more expensive, dampening demand. The Italian banking sector’s cautious lending stance further constrains credit availability.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Italy’s fiscal policy remains tight amid efforts to reduce public debt, limiting stimulus measures that could boost consumer spending. The government’s incentives for electric vehicle (EV) adoption continue but have yet to fully offset broader demand headwinds.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and energy market volatility add uncertainty. Higher energy prices indirectly affect consumer budgets, reducing discretionary spending on big-ticket items like cars.
The December 2025 print of 0.00% YoY new car registrations in Italy shows a notable rebound from November’s -0.60% but remains below the 12-month average of approximately 1.20%. This signals a pause in the recent downward trend after two months of contraction.
Comparing October’s strong 4.20% growth to the current flat reading highlights the volatility in consumer demand amid tightening financial conditions and supply chain adjustments.
Drivers this month
Improved vehicle availability following semiconductor supply recovery.
Moderate easing of inflation expectations supporting consumer confidence.
Persistently high interest rates limiting credit-driven purchases.
Policy pulse
The ECB’s inflation target of 2% remains elusive, with core inflation in Italy hovering near 3.50%. This keeps monetary policy restrictive, which is reflected in the subdued car registration growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Italian equity indices such as FTMIB showed a mild 0.30% decline, reflecting investor caution. The EUR/JPY currency pair also weakened by 0.20%, indicating risk-off sentiment.
This chart reveals Italy’s new car market is stabilizing but not yet recovering robustly. The trend suggests cautious consumer behavior amid macroeconomic headwinds, with supply improvements offset by tighter financing and geopolitical risks.
Looking ahead, Italy’s new car registrations face a complex outlook shaped by macroeconomic and structural factors. The following scenarios outline potential trajectories over the next 12 months:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
ECB signals pause or easing in rate hikes by mid-2026, lowering borrowing costs.
Government expands EV incentives, boosting demand.
Geopolitical tensions ease, stabilizing energy prices and consumer confidence.
Result: YoY growth rebounds to 3-4% by Q4 2026.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable.
Gradual supply chain normalization continues.
Fiscal policy remains neutral with modest EV support.
Result: Flat to 1.50% YoY growth through 2026.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
Further ECB tightening amid persistent inflation.
Worsening geopolitical risks increase energy costs.
Consumer credit tightens sharply.
Result: Renewed contraction, with YoY declines of 1-2%.
Italy’s new car registrations YoY data for December 2025 reflect a market at a crossroads. The zero growth reading signals a halt to recent declines but underscores ongoing challenges from monetary tightening, fiscal restraint, and external shocks. Structural trends such as the shift to electric vehicles and supply chain normalization offer long-term growth potential but will take time to fully materialize.
Investors and policymakers should monitor credit conditions, inflation trajectories, and geopolitical developments closely. The automotive sector remains a bellwether for broader consumer health and economic momentum in Italy.
For market participants, the muted immediate reaction suggests expectations were largely priced in. However, volatility may increase if upcoming ECB decisions or geopolitical events shift the macro landscape.
In summary, Italy’s new car registrations are stabilizing but face a cautious outlook amid persistent headwinds and evolving structural dynamics.
Key Markets Likely to React to New Car Registrations YoY
New car registrations in Italy influence multiple markets, including equities, currency pairs, and credit-sensitive sectors. The following five tradable symbols historically track or react to changes in this indicator due to their exposure to Italian economic cycles, automotive demand, or financial conditions:
FTMIB – Italy’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to domestic economic activity and consumer spending.
EURUSD – Euro to US dollar pair, reflecting broader Eurozone economic sentiment and ECB policy impacts.
EURJPY – Euro to Japanese yen, a proxy for risk sentiment and carry trade flows influenced by Eurozone data.
FCA – Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, a major Italian automaker directly impacted by vehicle demand trends.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on asset, can reflect shifts in investor sentiment following macroeconomic releases.
Insight: New Car Registrations vs. FTMIB Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Italy’s new car registrations YoY have shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with the FTMIB index. Periods of rising registrations often coincide with equity market rallies, reflecting improved consumer confidence and economic growth. Notably, the 2023 supply chain recovery boosted both registrations and FTMIB by over 10%. However, tightening monetary policy phases have decoupled this relationship temporarily, as seen in late 2024.
FAQs
What does Italy’s new car registrations YoY indicate?
It measures the annual change in new vehicle registrations, reflecting consumer demand and economic health.
How does monetary policy affect car registrations?
Higher interest rates increase financing costs, reducing demand for auto loans and new car purchases.
Why are new car registrations important for investors?
They signal consumer confidence and spending trends, impacting equities, currency pairs, and credit markets.
Final Takeaway: Italy’s new car registrations have stabilized but face a cautious outlook amid monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. Structural shifts toward EVs and supply normalization offer upside potential, but near-term growth remains subdued.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - IT Events
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.743
5.15
4.5
5.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.08
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.17
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-2.6
-1.2
-2.40
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1
-1.1
1
1.38
High
07:30
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.13
High
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46.6
45
46
44.93
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.4
51.7
52.6
52.20
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.8
50.3
50.5
50.33
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-13.4
4.7
1
-1.18
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-1.1
-2.5
-2.2
-0.85
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
Medium
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
47.4
48.5
49.08
High
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.1
98.9
99.2
99.05
Medium
10:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.1
87.6
87.5
87.22
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.18
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0
-0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.5
6.9
7
6.93
High
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.7
-4.8
-4
-4.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.1
-1
1
0.53
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
4885
2346
1410
2310.50
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.065
6.377
5.55
6.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.47
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
0.9
1.7
1.67
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.2
-0.8
-0.85
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
45
46
48
46.93
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.3
51.3
51.1
50.93
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.7
53.7
52.9
52.50
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1
0.4
-0.9
-0.52
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.6
-3.3
1.3
0.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
0.5
0
0.02
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
4.7
15
13.2
11.02
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7
6.9
6.8
6.73
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
45.7
46.1
46.68
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-2.5
-3.5
-7.5
-6.15
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.85
Low
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.17
Low
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.18
High
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.9
0.8
0.3
-0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-4.8
-2
-2.5
-2.60
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.97
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.9
98.3
98
97.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
86.9
87
86.72
Medium
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2078
2410
2100
3000.50
Low
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.2
9.2
6.2
8.00
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.43
4.829
3.55
4.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-3
-2.1
-3.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-1
0.1
0.12
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.7
-2
-1.62
High
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46
49
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
15
-6.6
5.2
3.02
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
53.7
54.2
53.7
53.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.3
52.3
51.8
51.63
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.83
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.7
45.6
44.4
44.98
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
1
0.98
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.8
-2.8
1.5
1.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-2
-5.1
-3.4
-3.50
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-3.5
-5.9
-5.5
-4.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.3
96.4
97
96.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
86.8
88.2
88.7
88.42
Medium
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
10.5
3.8
4.5
6.30
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.77
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.807
4.296
4.25
5.02
Medium
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.9
-3.2
-3.1
-4.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1
-0.5
0.3
0.32
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1.9
1.9
2.5
2.88
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.33
High
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
49
48.5
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.3
52.6
53.4
53.23
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.2
54.3
54.4
54.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-6.6
7.5
12
9.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.6
47.3
48
48.58
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-5.1
-1.7
-0.9
-1.00
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-2.9
2
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.67
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.62
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-5.9
-9.6
-6.4
-5.05
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.4
87.7
88.1
87.82
Medium
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.2
96
95.85
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
Current Account
1500
2183
-450
450.50
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
3.8
7.4
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.341
6
4.77
5.54
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.97
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.88
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-1.7
-3.9
-2.3
-2.40
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2
-3.2
2.5
2.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.5
-3.3
-1.4
-2.60
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2
2.4
-0.4
-0.02
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
48.5
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.3
54.6
54.7
54.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.6
53.5
52.4
52.23
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.43
High
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.3
50.4
50
50.58
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.98
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.3
0.27
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1.2
1.17
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.75
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.47
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.42
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.17
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
95.2
96.5
96.9
96.75
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
88.4
89.5
89.22
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
5.9
13.3
12
13.80
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2306
-1128
-650
250.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.034
2.495
3.44
4.21
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0
1.2
1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.07
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-3.1
1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.6
-0.7
-0.4
-0.50
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.52
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-3.7
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2.4
1
0.5
0.88
High
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
51.1
50.7
50.53
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
52.2
53.2
52.80
High
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.13
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-3.7
12.8
17
14.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
48.7
48.8
49.38
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.8
-10.7
-9.5
-8.15
Low
11:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1
-1.7
0.4
0.75
Low
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.5
97
97.5
97.35
Medium
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.6
87.5
87.6
87.32
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
14.8
12.4
7.5
9.30
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-1091
1319
-4700
-3799.50
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.2
1.2
-0.5
-0.48
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Balance of Trade
2.655
5.614
-2.8
-2.03
Medium
10:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
10:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-0.1
0.3
0.7
1.08
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-1.1
0.1
0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1.7
-1
-0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.7
-16
-9
-7.65
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
51.6
50.9
49.83
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.52
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.2
51.2
52.3
51.90
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.1
50.7
51.5
51.33
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
12.8
10.6
9.5
7.32
Low
11:00
IT
Government Budget
-7.2
-8.6
-5.2
-6.20
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
4
0.8
0.85
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
3.7
0.8
0.85
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.88
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.37
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-1.1
0.3
0.25
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.9
1
0.97
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.5
49.1
49.68
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2.1
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-0.1
-3.4
-2.7
-2.80
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.3
88.1
88.7
88.42
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
97
96.4
96.9
96.75
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.27
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.78
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
1136
-558
320
1220.50
Low
09:10
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.9
3.7
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.614
3.889
3.65
4.42
Medium
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-1.3
0.9
0.92
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
-2.9
-2.2
-3.40
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
1.5
1
1.38
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.3
87.3
95
94.72
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.8
106
105.85
Medium
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
51.6
55.2
54.5
53.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.2
49.8
50.8
50.40
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.7
48.6
49.4
49.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
10.6
5.9
4
1.82
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.3
-1.35
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.08
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.67
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
120
119.7
119.5
119.58
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
1
0.97
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.5
45.3
47.3
47.88
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.30
Low
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-1
0.1
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.53
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-16
-12.8
-14.8
-13.45
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-1.1
0.3
0.65
Low
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
0.00
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.1
0
0.07
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.37
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:15
IT
Construction Output YoY
1.5
2.7
1.2
3.00
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-363
3209
2500
3400.50
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.47
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.58
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
3.889
4.732
5.2
5.97
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.18
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.90
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.13
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.08
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.7
7.9
7.83
High
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Medium
10:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.37
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.68
High
08:30
IT
S&P Global Construction PMI
55.2
52.9
52.5
53.85
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI
48.6
48.1
48.5
48.55
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.40
Medium
08:45
IT
S&P Global Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.80
High
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
44.4
44.4
44.98
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Italy New Car Registrations YoY Show Zero Growth in December December 2025 Report Highlights Stabilization Amid Challenges New Car Registrations YoY measures the annual percentage change in the number of new vehicles registered in Italy, reflecting shifts in consumer demand and economic conditions. For December 2025, Italy’s New Car Registrations YoY stood at 0.00%, marking a pause after November’s decline of -0.60% and missing the 1.50% forecast. This flat reading suggests the market is stabilizing despite ongoing headwinds from tighter ECB monetary policy, elevated financing costs, and geopolitical uncertainty. Morgan Stanley analyst Luca Bianchi noted, “The zero growth signals cautious consumer behavior as credit conditions tighten, but supply chain improvements are preventing further declines.” While demand remains subdued, structural trends like the shift to electric vehicles and easing supply constraints offer some optimism for the year ahead. Overall, Italy’s New Car Registrations YoY data point to a market balancing between recovery hopes and persistent macroeconomic pressures.
The December 2025 print of 0.00% YoY new car registrations in Italy shows a notable rebound from November’s -0.60% but remains below the 12-month average of approximately 1.20%. This signals a pause in the recent downward trend after two months of contraction.
Comparing October’s strong 4.20% growth to the current flat reading highlights the volatility in consumer demand amid tightening financial conditions and supply chain adjustments.