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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 2.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 2.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's 2.4% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 2.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.08%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 2.4%, vs 0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
0.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.15
Actual: 2.9
Error: -1.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Italy) was reported at 2.9% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 2.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.82%, ranging from -0.7% to 2.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.57%, up from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.37%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - IT
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Producer Price Index MoM surged to 2.900000% in October, well above the 0.500000% estimate and up from September's 2.400000%. This sharp acceleration signals mounting cost pressures in the Italian production sector. Markets will closely watch upcoming inflation data and ECB policy responses amid persistent price gains. Updated 10/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |