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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Producer Price Index MoM fell to 0.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy Producer Price Index MoM fell to 0.3% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 4.1% from March's 4.4% reading. The reading missed the 2.5% consensus by 2.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.36%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 1.83%, vs 0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 56th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
2.5
Consensus
4.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.05
Actual: 0.3
Error: +1.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.5% by 2.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -0.7% to 1.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - IT
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Producer Price Index MoM rose 0.300000% in May, missing the 2.500000% estimate and sharply down from April's 4.400000%. The slowdown signals easing inflationary pressures in the industrial sector after a strong rebound in April. Market focus will shift to upcoming inflation data and ECB policy decisions amid this moderation. Updated 5/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.