Producer Price Index Mom - IT Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Italy Producer Price Index MoM
-0.2
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Italy’s Producer Price Index MoM contracted by -0.20%, missing the 0.40% estimate and reversing November’s 0.20% gain. This marks the third contraction in four months, signaling continued easing in producer price pressures and a contractionary trend in input costs. The decline supports expectations for a cautious ECB stance, with markets likely to remain watchful for inflation signals amid geopolitical and energy price risks. Updated 12/2/25
Producer Price Index Mom - IT
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Listen to: Italy Producer Price Index MoM
Italy’s Producer Price Index MoM Contracts 0.20% in December: Implications and Outlook
Key takeaways: Italy’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.20% MoM in December, missing the 0.40% consensus and reversing last month’s 0.20% gain. This marks the third contraction in four months, signaling easing inflationary pressures at the factory gate. The decline contrasts with the 12-month average of 0.10%, reflecting cooling input costs amid tighter monetary policy and subdued demand. Market reaction was muted but cautious, with implications for ECB policy and Italian industrial growth. Risks include external shocks from energy prices and geopolitical tensions, balanced by fiscal support and structural reforms.
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for Italy, released on December 2, 2025, shows a month-over-month contraction of 0.20%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure falls short of the 0.40% forecast and reverses November’s modest 0.20% increase. The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, serving as a leading indicator for consumer inflation and industrial demand.
Drivers this month
Energy input prices declined, easing cost pressures on manufacturers.
Weak demand in key export sectors, notably machinery and automotive.
The PPI reading sits below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target corridor, reinforcing expectations for a cautious monetary stance. The ECB’s recent rate hikes aim to temper inflation, and the PPI’s decline suggests some transmission of tighter financial conditions to producer costs.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/JPY currency pair dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting mild risk-off sentiment. Italian government bond yields (IT10Y) edged down 3 basis points, signaling investor relief over easing inflation pressures.
The PPI contraction contrasts with Italy’s core macroeconomic indicators, which show mixed signals. Industrial production growth slowed to 0.10% MoM in November, while the manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.70, indicating contractionary conditions. Consumer price inflation remains elevated at 3.20% YoY, but producer prices are leading a moderation trend.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
ECB’s deposit rate stands at 4.25%, with forward guidance suggesting a pause in hikes. Financial conditions have tightened, with the Italian banking sector experiencing higher funding costs. The PPI decline aligns with these tighter conditions, signaling reduced pricing power for producers.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Italy’s 2025 budget includes expansionary measures targeting infrastructure and green energy, supporting industrial demand. However, fiscal constraints limit stimulus size, and the government remains committed to deficit reduction, which may dampen near-term growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Energy price volatility, especially natural gas, remains a key risk. Recent easing in gas prices contributed to the PPI decline. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions could reverse this trend, posing upside inflation risks.
The December PPI MoM reading of -0.20% contrasts with November’s 0.20% and the 12-month average of 0.10%, marking a notable shift in trend. This is the third negative monthly print since August, following -0.60% in September and -0.70% in June, indicating a persistent easing in producer price pressures.
Key figure: The 0.40 percentage point miss versus consensus highlights downside risks to inflation expectations and industrial pricing power.
Historical context shows that PPI contractions in April (-2.40%) and May (-2.20%) were linked to energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions. The current decline is more moderate but signals a continuation of the downward trend. The 12-month average of 0.10% contrasts with the volatile monthly swings, underscoring the transitional phase in Italy’s inflation dynamics.
This chart reveals a clear trend of easing producer price inflation, reversing the sharp spikes seen earlier in 2025. The moderation suggests that input cost pressures are abating, which may translate into slower consumer inflation in coming months, barring external shocks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Italian equity index FTMIB dipped 0.30% post-release, reflecting investor caution. The EUR/USD pair remained stable, while the Italian 10-year bond yield (IT10Y) declined slightly, indicating a mild risk-on shift due to easing inflation concerns.
Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory will be influenced by several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) foresees continued mild declines or flat readings in PPI, reflecting stable energy prices and moderate demand. This would support ECB’s cautious approach and steady industrial growth around 0.20% quarterly.
Global demand weakens, pressuring producer margins.
ECB signals more aggressive tightening, dampening growth.
Policy pulse
ECB policymakers will closely monitor PPI trends as a leading inflation gauge. Persistent declines may delay further rate hikes, while any reversal could prompt renewed tightening. Fiscal policy remains supportive but constrained by debt targets.
Market lens
Financial markets will watch for confirmation of easing inflation pressures. Italian bonds and equities may rally on sustained PPI declines, while currency volatility could increase if geopolitical risks materialize.
Italy’s December PPI MoM contraction signals a cooling phase in producer inflation, aligning with broader macroeconomic trends of subdued industrial growth and tighter monetary policy. While risks from energy prices and geopolitics remain, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for inflation and economic stability in early 2026.
Investors and policymakers should balance the easing price pressures against potential external shocks. The interplay between fiscal support, ECB policy, and global conditions will shape Italy’s inflation trajectory and industrial performance in the months ahead.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index MoM
The Producer Price Index in Italy is a bellwether for inflation and industrial demand, influencing multiple asset classes. Markets sensitive to inflation expectations, monetary policy, and economic growth will react notably to PPI movements.
FTMIB: Italy’s main equity index, closely tied to industrial sector performance and inflation expectations.
EURJPY: Currency pair reflecting risk sentiment and ECB policy outlook, sensitive to inflation data.
ENI: Major Italian energy company, impacted by energy price shifts influencing PPI.
EURUSD: Euro-dollar pair, a barometer for ECB policy and Eurozone inflation trends.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation hedging makes it a relevant speculative asset.
Insight: Italy PPI vs. FTMIB Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Italy’s Producer Price Index and the FTMIB equity index have shown a correlated pattern, with PPI spikes often preceding equity volatility. For example, the sharp PPI rise in early 2025 (1.60% in March) coincided with a temporary FTMIB pullback. Conversely, PPI declines in mid-2025 (-2.40% in April) aligned with equity rebounds, reflecting easing cost pressures. This relationship underscores PPI’s role as a leading indicator for Italian industrial equities.
FAQs
What does the Producer Price Index MoM indicate for Italy?
The PPI MoM measures monthly changes in prices received by producers, signaling inflation trends and industrial demand in Italy.
How does the latest PPI reading affect ECB policy?
The December 0.20% decline suggests easing inflation pressures, potentially reducing the need for further ECB rate hikes in the near term.
What are the risks to Italy’s inflation outlook?
Risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and global demand shocks that could reverse the current easing trend.
Final takeaway: Italy’s PPI contraction signals easing inflation pressures, supporting a cautious but optimistic outlook for economic stability and ECB policy in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 12/2/25
Economic Calendar - IT Events
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.743
5.15
4.5
5.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.08
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.17
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-2.6
-1.2
-2.40
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1
-1.1
1
1.38
High
07:30
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.13
High
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46.6
45
46
44.93
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.4
51.7
52.6
52.20
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.8
50.3
50.5
50.33
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-13.4
4.7
1
-1.18
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-1.1
-2.5
-2.2
-0.85
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
Medium
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
47.4
48.5
49.08
High
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.1
98.9
99.2
99.05
Medium
10:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.1
87.6
87.5
87.22
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.18
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0
-0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.5
6.9
7
6.93
High
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.7
-4.8
-4
-4.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.1
-1
1
0.53
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
4885
2346
1410
2310.50
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.065
6.377
5.55
6.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.47
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
0.9
1.7
1.67
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.2
-0.8
-0.85
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
45
46
48
46.93
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.3
51.3
51.1
50.93
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.7
53.7
52.9
52.50
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1
0.4
-0.9
-0.52
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.6
-3.3
1.3
0.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
0.5
0
0.02
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
4.7
15
13.2
11.02
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7
6.9
6.8
6.73
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
45.7
46.1
46.68
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-2.5
-3.5
-7.5
-6.15
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.85
Low
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.17
Low
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.18
High
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.9
0.8
0.3
-0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-4.8
-2
-2.5
-2.60
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.97
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.9
98.3
98
97.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
86.9
87
86.72
Medium
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2078
2410
2100
3000.50
Low
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.2
9.2
6.2
8.00
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.43
4.829
3.55
4.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-3
-2.1
-3.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-1
0.1
0.12
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.7
-2
-1.62
High
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46
49
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
15
-6.6
5.2
3.02
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
53.7
54.2
53.7
53.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.3
52.3
51.8
51.63
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.83
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.7
45.6
44.4
44.98
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
1
0.98
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.8
-2.8
1.5
1.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-2
-5.1
-3.4
-3.50
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-3.5
-5.9
-5.5
-4.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.3
96.4
97
96.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
86.8
88.2
88.7
88.42
Medium
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
10.5
3.8
4.5
6.30
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.77
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.807
4.296
4.25
5.02
Medium
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.9
-3.2
-3.1
-4.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1
-0.5
0.3
0.32
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1.9
1.9
2.5
2.88
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.33
High
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
49
48.5
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.3
52.6
53.4
53.23
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.2
54.3
54.4
54.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-6.6
7.5
12
9.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.6
47.3
48
48.58
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-5.1
-1.7
-0.9
-1.00
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-2.9
2
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.67
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.62
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-5.9
-9.6
-6.4
-5.05
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.4
87.7
88.1
87.82
Medium
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.2
96
95.85
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
Current Account
1500
2183
-450
450.50
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
3.8
7.4
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.341
6
4.77
5.54
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.97
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.88
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-1.7
-3.9
-2.3
-2.40
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2
-3.2
2.5
2.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.5
-3.3
-1.4
-2.60
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2
2.4
-0.4
-0.02
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
48.5
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.3
54.6
54.7
54.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.6
53.5
52.4
52.23
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.43
High
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.3
50.4
50
50.58
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.98
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.3
0.27
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1.2
1.17
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.75
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.47
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.42
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.17
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
95.2
96.5
96.9
96.75
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
88.4
89.5
89.22
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
5.9
13.3
12
13.80
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2306
-1128
-650
250.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.034
2.495
3.44
4.21
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0
1.2
1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.07
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-3.1
1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.6
-0.7
-0.4
-0.50
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.52
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-3.7
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2.4
1
0.5
0.88
High
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
51.1
50.7
50.53
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
52.2
53.2
52.80
High
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.13
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-3.7
12.8
17
14.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
48.7
48.8
49.38
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.8
-10.7
-9.5
-8.15
Low
11:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1
-1.7
0.4
0.75
Low
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.5
97
97.5
97.35
Medium
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.6
87.5
87.6
87.32
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
14.8
12.4
7.5
9.30
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-1091
1319
-4700
-3799.50
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.2
1.2
-0.5
-0.48
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Balance of Trade
2.655
5.614
-2.8
-2.03
Medium
10:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
10:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-0.1
0.3
0.7
1.08
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-1.1
0.1
0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1.7
-1
-0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.7
-16
-9
-7.65
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
51.6
50.9
49.83
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.52
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.2
51.2
52.3
51.90
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.1
50.7
51.5
51.33
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
12.8
10.6
9.5
7.32
Low
11:00
IT
Government Budget
-7.2
-8.6
-5.2
-6.20
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
4
0.8
0.85
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
3.7
0.8
0.85
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.88
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.37
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-1.1
0.3
0.25
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.9
1
0.97
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.5
49.1
49.68
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2.1
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-0.1
-3.4
-2.7
-2.80
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.3
88.1
88.7
88.42
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
97
96.4
96.9
96.75
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.27
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.78
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
1136
-558
320
1220.50
Low
09:10
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.9
3.7
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.614
3.889
3.65
4.42
Medium
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-1.3
0.9
0.92
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
-2.9
-2.2
-3.40
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
1.5
1
1.38
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.3
87.3
95
94.72
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.8
106
105.85
Medium
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
51.6
55.2
54.5
53.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.2
49.8
50.8
50.40
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.7
48.6
49.4
49.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
10.6
5.9
4
1.82
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.3
-1.35
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.08
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.67
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
120
119.7
119.5
119.58
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
1
0.97
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.5
45.3
47.3
47.88
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.30
Low
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-1
0.1
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.53
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-16
-12.8
-14.8
-13.45
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-1.1
0.3
0.65
Low
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
0.00
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.1
0
0.07
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.37
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:15
IT
Construction Output YoY
1.5
2.7
1.2
3.00
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-363
3209
2500
3400.50
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.47
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.58
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
3.889
4.732
5.2
5.97
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.18
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.90
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.13
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.08
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.7
7.9
7.83
High
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Medium
10:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.37
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.68
High
08:30
IT
S&P Global Construction PMI
55.2
52.9
52.5
53.85
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI
48.6
48.1
48.5
48.55
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.40
Medium
08:45
IT
S&P Global Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.80
High
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
44.4
44.4
44.98
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Italy Producer Price Index MoM Declines 0.20 Percent in December December’s Producer Price Index MoM Shows Cooling Inflation The Producer Price Index MoM in Italy measures the monthly change in prices domestic producers receive for goods, reflecting inflation trends at the factory level. Fast facts for December 2025: the index fell by 0.20 percent, missing the 0.40 percent forecast, with the previous month showing a 0.20 percent rise. The data was released on December 2, 2025. Italy’s Producer Price Index MoM dropped 0.20 percent in December, marking the third decline in four months and signaling easing inflation pressures on producers. This contraction contrasts with expectations and reverses November’s modest gain, highlighting weaker demand and lower energy input costs. According to Morgan Stanley’s European economist, “The persistent softness in Italy’s producer prices suggests that tighter ECB policy is gradually filtering through, reducing pricing power in key industrial sectors.” The decline in Italy’s Producer Price Index MoM points to a moderation in cost pressures that could temper consumer inflation ahead, though risks from energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions remain. Market reaction was cautious, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery and inflation dynamics in Italy.
The December PPI MoM reading of -0.20% contrasts with November’s 0.20% and the 12-month average of 0.10%, marking a notable shift in trend. This is the third negative monthly print since August, following -0.60% in September and -0.70% in June, indicating a persistent easing in producer price pressures.
Key figure: The 0.40 percentage point miss versus consensus highlights downside risks to inflation expectations and industrial pricing power.