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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 2.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 2.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 2.4% from June's 0.0% reading. The print exceeded the 0.6% consensus by 1.8%. Producer Price Index MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged -0.1%, vs 1.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.55
Actual: 2.4
Error: -1.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Italy) was reported at 2.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.6% by 1.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from -0.7% to 2.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.73%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.92%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.54%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Producer Price Index MoM has averaged 0.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - IT
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Producer Price Index MoM surged to 2.400000% in August, sharply beating the 0.600000% estimate and rising from July's flat 0.000000%. This marks a significant acceleration in producer price inflation month-over-month. Markets will closely watch upcoming inflation data and ECB policy signals amid this unexpected jump. Updated 9/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |