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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.2% from June's -0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.6%. Retail Sales MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Italy) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.02%, ranging from -0.8% to 0.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at -0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.58%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - IT
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About Retail Sales MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.74) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |