Retail Sales Yoy - IT Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Italy Retail Sales YoY
1.3
Actual
1.5
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Italy’s Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.30%, matching November’s 1.30% but missing the 1.50% estimate. This steady reading signals continued modest expansion compared to October’s 0.50%, reflecting a plateau after mid-2025 volatility. Looking ahead, subdued growth amid inflation pressures suggests the ECB will maintain a cautious monetary stance, with markets likely to remain sensitive to consumer spending trends. Updated 1/9/26
Retail Sales Yoy - IT
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Italy's Retail Sales YoY for December 2025: Steady Growth Amid Mixed Signals
Italy's Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 held steady at 1.30%, matching November's figure but falling short of the 1.50% estimate, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This report provides a detailed analysis of the recent retail sales data, contextualizing it within broader macroeconomic trends, monetary and fiscal policy, and external risks shaping Italy's economic outlook.
Italy's retail sales growth for December 2025 remained unchanged at 1.30% YoY, consistent with November's reading but below the 1.50% consensus forecast. This steady pace follows a volatile 2025, where retail sales fluctuated between contraction and modest expansion. The 12-month average growth rate now stands near 0.80%, reflecting a slow but persistent recovery from mid-2025 lows.
Drivers this month
Stable consumer demand in urban centers offset weaker rural spending.
Holiday season sales provided a moderate boost but failed to accelerate growth.
Energy price stabilization helped maintain disposable income levels.
Policy pulse
The retail sales figure remains below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target zone, signaling subdued consumer spending power amid ongoing inflationary pressures. The ECB’s cautious stance on interest rates continues to weigh on credit availability, limiting retail expansion.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/JPY currency pair dipped 0.15% in the hour following the release, reflecting tempered investor enthusiasm. Italian equities, represented by FTSEMIB, showed mild retracement, while bond yields held steady.
Italy’s retail sales growth must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators to understand its broader implications. GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected at 0.20% QoQ, signaling sluggish momentum. Inflation remains elevated at 4.10% YoY, pressuring household budgets and dampening discretionary spending.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s key interest rate currently stands at 3.75%, unchanged since late 2025. Financial conditions remain tight, with bank lending standards cautious amid global uncertainties. The Italian banking sector’s health is stable but vulnerable to external shocks.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Italy’s government continues its cautious fiscal stance, targeting a deficit of 3.50% of GDP for 2026. Recent stimulus measures focused on supporting small businesses and energy subsidies, which have had limited direct impact on retail sales growth.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Persistent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions continue to pose risks. Energy price volatility has moderated but remains a key uncertainty for consumer confidence and retail spending.
December 2025 retail sales YoY growth in Italy held at 1.30%, unchanged from November’s 1.30% but below the 12-month average of approximately 0.80%. Compared to October’s 0.50%, the data shows a rebound that has since plateaued. Earlier in 2025, retail sales experienced sharper swings, including a -2.80% contraction in May and a peak of 3.70% in June.
This stabilization suggests that while consumer spending has recovered from mid-year lows, it faces headwinds from inflation and cautious credit conditions. The holiday season’s impact was less pronounced than expected, indicating restrained consumer enthusiasm.
Drivers this month
Energy cost stabilization helped maintain real incomes.
Urban retail sectors outperformed rural areas.
Consumer sentiment remained cautious amid inflation concerns.
Policy pulse
Retail sales growth remains below the ECB’s target inflation range, underscoring the challenge of stimulating domestic demand without exacerbating inflation. The ECB’s neutral monetary policy stance is unlikely to shift until clearer signs of sustained growth emerge.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Italian 10-year government bond yield remained stable at 4.20%, reflecting balanced risk perceptions. The EUR/USD pair saw a slight 0.10% decline, indicating cautious investor positioning.
This chart highlights Italy’s retail sales trending upward since mid-2025 but plateauing in recent months. The data signals a fragile recovery, vulnerable to inflationary pressures and external shocks, suggesting limited upside without policy support.
Looking ahead, Italy’s retail sales trajectory faces multiple scenarios shaped by domestic and global factors.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Energy prices decline further, easing inflation and boosting disposable income. ECB signals gradual rate cuts in H2 2026, improving credit access. Consumer confidence rebounds, pushing retail sales growth above 2.50% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
Retail sales maintain steady growth around 1.30%-1.50% YoY. Inflation moderates slowly, and ECB holds rates steady. Fiscal stimulus remains limited but targeted, supporting small-scale consumption gains.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting supply chains and energy markets. Inflation spikes again, eroding real incomes. ECB tightens monetary policy further, leading to retail sales contraction below 0% YoY in early 2026.
Italy’s retail sales growth for December 2025 reflects a cautious consumer environment amid persistent inflation and tight financial conditions. While the data shows resilience compared to mid-2025 lows, the lack of acceleration signals ongoing challenges. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation. External risks, including geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility, remain key downside threats. Investors and analysts should monitor upcoming ECB communications and fiscal developments closely to gauge the sustainability of Italy’s retail recovery.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY
Retail sales data often influences currency, equity, and bond markets sensitive to consumer demand signals. The following five tradable symbols historically correlate with Italy’s retail sales trends and are likely to react to future releases:
EURUSD – Major currency pair influenced by ECB policy and Eurozone growth.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and liquidity conditions.
ENI – Italy’s energy giant, linked to consumer energy costs impacting retail spending.
Since 2020, FTSEMIB’s performance has closely tracked retail sales trends, with notable divergence during economic shocks. This relationship underscores the importance of retail consumption as a driver of Italy’s equity market sentiment.
FAQs
What does Italy’s Retail Sales YoY indicate?
It measures the annual percentage change in retail sales, reflecting consumer spending trends and economic health.
How does retail sales growth affect Italy’s economy?
Stronger retail sales support GDP growth, business revenues, and employment, while weak sales signal economic slowdown.
Why is the December 2025 retail sales figure important?
It provides insight into holiday season consumer behavior and sets the tone for early 2026 economic momentum.
Key takeaway: Italy’s retail sales growth remains modest and steady, signaling a fragile recovery that hinges on inflation control and policy support.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - IT Events
Monday, September 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.743
5.15
4.5
5.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.08
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.17
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-2.6
-1.2
-2.40
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
0.5
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1
-1.1
1
1.38
High
07:30
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.13
High
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46.6
45
46
44.93
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.4
51.7
52.6
52.20
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.8
50.3
50.5
50.33
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-13.4
4.7
1
-1.18
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-1.1
-2.5
-2.2
-0.85
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
Medium
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.4
47.4
48.5
49.08
High
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.1
98.9
99.2
99.05
Medium
10:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.1
87.6
87.5
87.22
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.27
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.18
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0
-0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.5
6.9
7
6.93
High
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.7
-4.8
-4
-4.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.1
-1
1
0.53
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
4885
2346
1410
2310.50
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.065
6.377
5.55
6.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.47
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
0.9
1.7
1.67
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.9
0.2
-0.8
-0.85
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
45
46
48
46.93
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.3
51.3
51.1
50.93
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.7
53.7
52.9
52.50
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1
0.4
-0.9
-0.52
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.6
-3.3
1.3
0.10
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
0.5
0
0.02
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
4.7
15
13.2
11.02
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7
6.9
6.8
6.73
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.4
45.7
46.1
46.68
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-2.5
-3.5
-7.5
-6.15
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.85
Low
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.17
Low
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.18
High
08:30
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
08:30
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-0.9
0.8
0.3
-0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-4.8
-2
-2.5
-2.60
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.20
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.27
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.97
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.92
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.9
98.3
98
97.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
86.9
87
86.72
Medium
Friday, July 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2078
2410
2100
3000.50
Low
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.2
9.2
6.2
8.00
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.43
4.829
3.55
4.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.3
-3
-2.1
-3.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-1
0.1
0.12
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.4
-1.7
-2
-1.62
High
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
46
49
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
15
-6.6
5.2
3.02
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
53.7
54.2
53.7
53.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.3
52.3
51.8
51.63
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.83
High
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.7
45.6
44.4
44.98
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
1
0.98
High
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
0.8
-2.8
1.5
1.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-2
-5.1
-3.4
-3.50
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-3.5
-5.9
-5.5
-4.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
98.3
96.4
97
96.85
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
86.8
88.2
88.7
88.42
Medium
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
10.5
3.8
4.5
6.30
Low
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.77
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.807
4.296
4.25
5.02
Medium
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.9
-3.2
-3.1
-4.30
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1
-0.5
0.3
0.32
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-1.9
1.9
2.5
2.88
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.33
High
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
49
48.5
50
48.93
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.3
52.6
53.4
53.23
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.2
54.3
54.4
54.00
High
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-6.6
7.5
12
9.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.6
47.3
48
48.58
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-5.1
-1.7
-0.9
-1.00
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-2.9
2
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.67
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Medium
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.62
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-5.9
-9.6
-6.4
-5.05
Low
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-0.2
-1.5
-1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.4
87.7
88.1
87.82
Medium
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.2
96
95.85
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
Current Account
1500
2183
-450
450.50
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
3.8
7.4
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
4.341
6
4.77
5.54
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.55
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.97
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.88
Medium
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-1.7
-3.9
-2.3
-2.40
Low
10:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2
-3.2
2.5
2.03
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.5
-3.3
-1.4
-2.60
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2
2.4
-0.4
-0.02
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0
0.1
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
48.5
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.3
54.6
54.7
54.30
High
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
52.6
53.5
52.4
52.23
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.43
High
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.3
50.4
50
50.58
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
1.2
1
0.98
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.3
0.27
Medium
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1
1.2
1.2
1.17
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.75
Low
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.47
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.42
High
08:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.17
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
95.2
96.5
96.9
96.75
Medium
08:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.6
88.4
89.5
89.22
Medium
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
5.9
13.3
12
13.80
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Current Account
2306
-1128
-650
250.50
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
6.034
2.495
3.44
4.21
Medium
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0
1.2
1.15
Low
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.28
Medium
08:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.07
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-3.1
1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
08:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.6
-0.7
-0.4
-0.50
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-1.4
0.5
0.52
Medium
08:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-3.7
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.23
High
08:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
2.4
1
0.5
0.88
High
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
50.3
50.5
49.43
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
53.5
51.1
50.7
50.53
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
54.6
52.2
53.2
52.80
High
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.13
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
-3.7
12.8
17
14.82
Low
07:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50.4
48.7
48.8
49.38
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.8
-10.7
-9.5
-8.15
Low
11:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1
-1.7
0.4
0.75
Low
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.5
97
97.5
97.35
Medium
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.6
87.5
87.6
87.32
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Construction Output YoY
14.8
12.4
7.5
9.30
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-1091
1319
-4700
-3799.50
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.2
1.2
-0.5
-0.48
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2.8
-4.00
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Balance of Trade
2.655
5.614
-2.8
-2.03
Medium
10:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
1
-0.1
0.2
0.23
High
10:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
-0.1
0.3
0.7
1.08
High
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0
-1.1
0.1
0.05
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.78
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
PPI MoM
-1.7
-1
-0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
PPI YoY
-10.7
-16
-9
-7.65
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
50.3
51.6
50.9
49.83
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.52
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
52.2
51.2
52.3
51.90
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
51.1
50.7
51.5
51.33
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
12.8
10.6
9.5
7.32
Low
11:00
IT
Government Budget
-7.2
-8.6
-5.2
-6.20
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
4
0.8
0.85
High
11:00
IT
Full Year GDP Growth
0.9
3.7
0.8
0.85
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.88
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.37
Medium
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-1.1
0.3
0.25
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.9
1
0.97
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.13
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.5
49.1
49.68
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
2.1
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
09:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-0.1
-3.4
-2.7
-2.80
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
87.3
88.1
88.7
88.42
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
97
96.4
96.9
96.75
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.27
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.87
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.1
-1.15
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.78
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
1136
-558
320
1220.50
Low
09:10
IT
Construction Output YoY
9.9
3.7
2
3.80
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
5.614
3.889
3.65
4.42
Medium
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-1.3
0.9
0.92
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
-2.9
-2.2
-3.40
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
1.5
1
1.38
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
High
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Business Confidence
88.3
87.3
95
94.72
Medium
09:00
IT
Consumer Confidence
96.4
95.8
106
105.85
Medium
08:30
IT
HCOB Construction PMI
51.6
55.2
54.5
53.43
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
51.2
49.8
50.8
50.40
High
08:45
IT
HCOB Composite PMI
50.7
48.6
49.4
49.23
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
IT
New Car Registrations YoY
10.6
5.9
4
1.82
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-1.1
0.2
-1.3
-1.35
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.08
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.67
Low
10:00
IT
CPI
120
119.7
119.5
119.58
High
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
1
0.97
Medium
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
48.5
45.3
47.3
47.88
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales YoY
-3.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.30
Low
11:00
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
-1
0.1
-0.6
-1.07
Low
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.53
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
PPI YoY
-16
-12.8
-14.8
-13.45
Low
10:00
IT
PPI MoM
-0.9
-1.1
0.3
0.65
Low
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
0.00
High
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
0.2
0.1
0
0.07
Medium
09:00
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.37
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:15
IT
Construction Output YoY
1.5
2.7
1.2
3.00
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Current Account
-363
3209
2500
3400.50
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.47
Low
09:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.15
Low
09:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Low
09:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.58
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Balance of Trade
3.889
4.732
5.2
5.97
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Industrial Production MoM
-1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.18
Medium
09:00
IT
Industrial Production YoY
-3.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.90
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.13
High
09:00
IT
Retail Sales YoY
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.08
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
IT
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.7
7.9
7.83
High
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.17
Medium
10:00
IT
CPI
119.7
119.5
119.7
119.78
High
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Low
10:00
IT
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.37
Low
10:00
IT
Inflation Rate YoY
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.68
High
08:30
IT
S&P Global Construction PMI
55.2
52.9
52.5
53.85
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
S&P Global Composite PMI
48.6
48.1
48.5
48.55
Low
08:45
IT
HCOB Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.40
Medium
08:45
IT
S&P Global Services PMI
49.8
49.5
49.8
49.80
High
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:45
IT
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
44.4
44.4
44.98
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Retail Sales YoY Italy December 2025 Shows Steady Growth Italy’s Retail Sales YoY Holds at 1.30 Percent in December Retail Sales YoY measures the annual change in total retail sales, reflecting consumer spending trends in Italy. Fast facts for December 2025: Retail Sales YoY rose 1.30%, unchanged from November’s 1.30%, below the 1.50% forecast; the monthly change was flat; data released on January 9, 2026. Italy’s retail sales growth remains modest but stable, signaling cautious consumer behavior amid persistent inflation and tight credit conditions. According to Morgan Stanley, “The steady retail sales figure underscores ongoing consumer resilience despite inflationary pressures and limited monetary easing.” The data suggests that while holiday season spending provided some support, it was not enough to accelerate growth. The European Central Bank’s steady interest rates continue to restrain credit availability, limiting retail expansion. Overall, Italy’s retail sales YoY performance points to a fragile recovery that depends heavily on inflation control and policy support in the coming months.
December 2025 retail sales YoY growth in Italy held at 1.30%, unchanged from November’s 1.30% but below the 12-month average of approximately 0.80%. Compared to October’s 0.50%, the data shows a rebound that has since plateaued. Earlier in 2025, retail sales experienced sharper swings, including a -2.80% contraction in May and a peak of 3.70% in June.
This stabilization suggests that while consumer spending has recovered from mid-year lows, it faces headwinds from inflation and cautious credit conditions. The holiday season’s impact was less pronounced than expected, indicating restrained consumer enthusiasm.