Jordan's GDP growth rate for December 2025, released on January 6, 2026, held steady at 2.8% year-over-year (YoY), matching November's figure and surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.4%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This stability contrasts with the 2.4% recorded in October 2025 and reflects a resilient economic environment amid regional uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Steady domestic consumption supported by stable employment.
• Modest rebound in tourism and services sectors post-pandemic.
• Continued government investment in infrastructure projects.

Policy pulse

The Central Bank of Jordan has maintained an accommodative monetary stance, keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.5%. Inflation remains moderate at around 3.2%, within the target range, supporting steady growth without overheating.

Market lens

Financial markets showed muted reaction post-release. The Jordanian Dinar (JOD) remained stable against the US dollar, while local equity indices reflected cautious optimism. Breakeven inflation rates and 2-year government bond yields held steady, signaling confidence in the current growth trajectory.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators provides context for the December 2025 GDP growth rate. Inflation at 3.2% YoY remains contained, while unemployment rates have edged down slightly to 14.5%, reflecting gradual labor market improvements. The government budget deficit narrowed to 3.8% of GDP in Q4 2025, aided by higher tax revenues and controlled spending.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank's steady policy rate of 3.5% supports credit growth, which expanded by 4.1% YoY in December. Liquidity conditions remain ample, with banking sector non-performing loans stable at 5.6%. The JOD’s peg to the US dollar continues to anchor inflation expectations.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline remains a priority. The government’s budget deficit improved from 4.2% in Q3 2025 to 3.8% in Q4, reflecting prudent expenditure management and enhanced tax collection. Public debt stands at 95% of GDP, a level that warrants cautious monitoring but remains manageable given low borrowing costs.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Regional geopolitical tensions, particularly in neighboring Syria and Iraq, continue to pose risks to trade and investment. However, Jordan’s diversified export base and growing trade ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries provide some buffer. Global commodity price volatility, especially energy, remains a wildcard for inflation and growth.

Drivers this month

• Services sector growth accelerated by 0.3 percentage points (pp), driven by tourism recovery.
• Manufacturing output contributed 0.2 pp, reflecting improved export orders.
• Government infrastructure spending added 0.15 pp to growth.

Policy pulse

The Central Bank’s neutral stance aligns with the growth rate’s steady pace, balancing inflation control and growth support. The stable JOD exchange rate underpins import price stability, aiding inflation management.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The JOD/USD pair remained flat, while the Amman Stock Exchange benchmark index (ASE) gained 0.4% in the first hour post-release, reflecting investor confidence in steady growth prospects.

Looking ahead, Jordan’s GDP growth trajectory faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects growth around 2.7%–3.0% for 2026, supported by steady domestic demand and gradual export expansion.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Accelerated reforms boost private investment and productivity.
• Regional stability improves, enhancing trade and tourism.
• Global commodity prices stabilize, easing inflationary pressures.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Growth remains steady near 2.8%, supported by accommodative monetary policy.
• Fiscal discipline continues, with moderate deficit reduction.
• External risks contained but persistent.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade routes.
• Inflation spikes due to energy price shocks.
• Fiscal pressures force spending cuts, dampening growth.

Jordan’s December 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.8% YoY reflects a stable economic environment amid ongoing regional and global challenges. The steady pace, supported by accommodative monetary policy and fiscal prudence, suggests resilience. However, external shocks and structural constraints remain key risks. Continued reforms and diversification will be essential to sustain growth and improve living standards over the long term.

Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and fiscal health closely. The interplay of these factors will shape Jordan’s macroeconomic outlook in 2026 and beyond.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Jordan’s GDP growth rate is closely watched by regional equity markets, currency pairs involving the Jordanian Dinar, and select commodities sensitive to regional economic activity. Movements in these markets often reflect investor sentiment on the country’s economic health and policy outlook.

• ASE – The Amman Stock Exchange index typically reacts to GDP data, reflecting corporate earnings prospects.
• USDJOD – The Jordanian Dinar’s peg to the US dollar means currency stability is a key indicator of economic confidence.
• EURUSD – Regional trade and investment flows influence this major currency pair, indirectly linked to Jordan’s economic outlook.
• SABIC – As a major regional industrial player, SABIC’s stock price can reflect broader economic trends impacting Jordan.
• BTCUSD – Cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, sometimes react to macroeconomic uncertainty in emerging markets like Jordan.

FAQs

What does Jordan's GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?

The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in Jordan’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.

How does the December 2025 GDP growth compare historically?

December 2025’s 2.8% growth matches November’s rate and exceeds October’s 2.4%, indicating stabilization after mid-2024’s slower growth.

What are the main risks to Jordan’s GDP growth outlook?

Key risks include regional geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and fiscal pressures that could dampen growth momentum.

Jordan’s economy shows steady growth at 2.8% YoY in December 2025, supported by stable policy and improving fundamentals. Vigilance on external risks and continued reforms will be critical to sustaining this positive trajectory.

Updated 1/6/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.