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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Capacity Utilization fell to -4.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Capacity Utilization fell to -4.2% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 4.7% from July's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 4.4%. Capacity Utilization has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Capacity Utilization averaged 2.3%, vs -0.63% in the prior 3-month window. Capacity Utilization is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-4.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.83 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: -4.2
Error: +5.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Capacity Utilization (Japan) was reported at -4.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 4.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from -5.3% to 4.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, up from the prior three at -0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.88%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.17%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.83%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Capacity Utilization - JP
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About Capacity Utilization — Japan
DEFINITION
Capacity Utilization is a financial indicator that measures the extent to which a company or industry is utilizing its maximum production capacity. It is calculated by dividing the actual output by the potential output and is expressed as a percentage. This indicator provides valuable insights into the efficiency and productivity of a business, as well as its potential for growth and expansion. A high capacity utilization rate indicates that a company is operating at optimal levels, while a low rate may suggest room for improvement and potential cost savings. Overall, capacity utilization is a key metric for assessing the overall health and performance of a company or industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -4.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |