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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Capacity Utilization fell to 0.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Capacity Utilization fell to 0.5% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 3.6% from June's 4.1% reading. The print exceeded the -1.3% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Capacity Utilization averaged 2.1%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
-1.3
Consensus
4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.55
Actual: 0.5
Error: -1.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Capacity Utilization (Japan) was reported at 0.5% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.3% by 1.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.46%, ranging from -5.3% to 4.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.57%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.65%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.16%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Oct 7) and Household Spending YoY (Oct 8).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Capacity Utilization - JP
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About Capacity Utilization — Japan
DEFINITION
Capacity Utilization is a financial indicator that measures the extent to which a company or industry is utilizing its maximum production capacity. It is calculated by dividing the actual output by the potential output and is expressed as a percentage. This indicator provides valuable insights into the efficiency and productivity of a business, as well as its potential for growth and expansion. A high capacity utilization rate indicates that a company is operating at optimal levels, while a low rate may suggest room for improvement and potential cost savings. Overall, capacity utilization is a key metric for assessing the overall health and performance of a company or industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus -1.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, October 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 53.5 | 52.5 | 52.40 | Low |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 52.5 | 51.6 | 51.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35.4 | 35.5 | 35.3 | 35.35 | High |
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 21 | 23 | 23.00 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Overtime Pay YoY | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Average Cash Earnings YoY | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Index | 120.6 | 119.7 | 119.75 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 117.7 | 118.1 | 118.05 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 2989 | 3194.6 | 3117.95 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 48.3 | 48 | 49.85 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 46.4 | 46.8 | 46.50 | Low | |