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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Capital Expenditure YoY fell to 0.0% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Capital Expenditure YoY fell to 0.0% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 6.5% from December's 6.5% reading. The reading missed the 4.1% consensus by 4.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.64%. Capital Expenditure YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
0
Actual
4.1
Consensus
6.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.65 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 6.2
Actual: 0
Error: +6.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Capital Expenditure YoY (Japan) was reported at 0% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.1% by 4.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.13%, down from the prior three at 4.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Capital Expenditure YoY - JP
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About Capital Expenditure YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Capital Expenditure YoY for May came in at 0.000000%, missing the 4.100000% estimate and down sharply from March's 6.500000%. This marks a significant slowdown in investment growth, indicating contraction compared to the prior robust expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming economic data and Bank of Japan policy signals amid this unexpected deceleration. Updated 6/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.