Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Construction Orders YoY fell to -13.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Construction Orders YoY fell to -13.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 15.7% from June's 2.3% reading. The reading missed the 5.0% consensus by 18.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.96%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Orders YoY averaged -2.2%, vs -1.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-13.4
Actual
5
Consensus
2.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±24.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.65
Actual: -13.4
Error: +17.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at -13.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5% by 18.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.32%, ranging from -32.3% to 42.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -5.93%, down from the prior three at 5.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 22.73%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 21.8%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Construction Orders YoY has averaged 10.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 24.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Construction Orders YoY - JP
Loading chart data...
About Construction Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Construction Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new construction orders received by companies in a specific time period compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the overall health and growth of the construction industry and can provide valuable insights into the future outlook of the economy. A positive YoY growth in construction orders indicates a strong demand for new construction projects, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown in the industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -13.4 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (May 2026): -6.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |