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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Construction Orders YoY climbed to 2.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Construction Orders YoY climbed to 2.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 9.0% from May's -6.7% reading. The print exceeded the -7.0% consensus by 9.3%. Construction Orders YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Construction Orders YoY averaged -19.5%, vs 11.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
-7
Consensus
-6.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±24.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -19.65
Actual: 2.3
Error: -21.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.3% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -7% by 9.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -6.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.03%, ranging from -32.3% to 42.7% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -12.23%, down from the prior three at 22.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 22.65%) is lower than the prior year (σ 26.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Construction Orders YoY has averaged 3.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 24.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Construction Orders YoY - JP
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About Construction Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Construction Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new construction orders received by companies in a specific time period compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the overall health and growth of the construction industry and can provide valuable insights into the future outlook of the economy. A positive YoY growth in construction orders indicates a strong demand for new construction projects, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown in the industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus -7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -6.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -32.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |