Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Construction Orders YoY fell to -11.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Construction Orders YoY fell to -11.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 7.5% from August's -3.6% reading. The reading missed the -3.0% consensus by 8.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.88%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Orders YoY averaged -8.5%, vs -12.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-11.1
Actual
-3
Consensus
-3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±14.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -5.5
Actual: -11.1
Error: +5.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at -11.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3% by 8.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.16%, ranging from -32.3% to 42.7% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -9.37%, up from the prior three at -12.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 20.31%) is lower than the prior year (σ 23.18%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Construction Orders YoY has averaged -0.18%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 14.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Construction Orders YoY - JP
Loading chart data...
About Construction Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Construction Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new construction orders received by companies in a specific time period compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the overall health and growth of the construction industry and can provide valuable insights into the future outlook of the economy. A positive YoY growth in construction orders indicates a strong demand for new construction projects, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown in the industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -11.1 %, consensus -3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -3.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -13.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |