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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Construction Orders YoY fell to -32.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Construction Orders YoY fell to -32.3% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 17.9% from March's -14.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.6% consensus by 35.9%. Construction Orders YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Construction Orders YoY averaged 14.15%, vs 11.8% in the prior 3-month window. Construction Orders YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-32.3
Actual
3.6
Consensus
-14.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±27.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 23.45
Actual: -32.3
Error: +55.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at -32.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.6% by 35.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of -14.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.53%, ranging from -32.3% to 42.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.37%, down from the prior three at 6.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 26.65%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Construction Orders YoY has averaged 15.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 27.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Construction Orders YoY - JP
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About Construction Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Construction Orders YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new construction orders received by companies in a specific time period compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the overall health and growth of the construction industry and can provide valuable insights into the future outlook of the economy. A positive YoY growth in construction orders indicates a strong demand for new construction projects, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown in the industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -32.3 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -14.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 42.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.