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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Price Index YoY fell to 3.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Japan GDP Price Index YoY fell to 3.2% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from December's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.4% consensus by 0.2%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.1%. GDP Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3.4
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.48
Actual: 3.2
Error: +0.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Price Index YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.2%, ranging from 2.8% to 3.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.33%, up from the prior three at 3.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.32%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Price Index YoY has averaged 3.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Aug 9) and BoJ Summary of Opinions (Aug 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Price Index YoY - JP
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About GDP Price Index YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The GDP Price Index YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of all goods and services produced within a country over a one-year period. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends and the purchasing power of consumers, making it a crucial tool for assessing the health of a country's economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and forecast future economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.82) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending MoM | -6.4 | 3.7 | -3.1 | -4.40 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending YoY | -3.3 | -0.4 | 1 | -0.47 | Medium |
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Economic Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low |
| Sunday, August 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 3968 | 1512 | 1512.00 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.70 | Low | |
| Monday, August 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 45.7 | 46 | 46.00 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 44 | 44.4 | 44.40 | Low | |