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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Price Index YoY fell to 2.6% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Japan GDP Price Index YoY fell to 2.6% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 0.6% from March's 3.2% reading. The reading matched the 2.6% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.14%. GDP Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.6
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.6
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Price Index YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.6% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.6% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.1%, ranging from 2.6% to 3.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.8%, down from the prior three at 3.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.35%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Price Index YoY has averaged 2.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 24) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Price Index YoY - JP
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About GDP Price Index YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The GDP Price Index YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of all goods and services produced within a country over a one-year period. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends and the purchasing power of consumers, making it a crucial tool for assessing the health of a country's economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and forecast future economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 55 | 55.00 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.5 | 52.7 | 52.70 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 53.5 | 54 | 54.00 | Low | |