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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Industrial Production MoM climbed to 6.4% in August 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Industrial Production MoM climbed to 6.4% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 6.6% from July's -0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 6.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.03%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.28%, vs 0.17% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
6.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.63 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.12
Actual: 6.4
Error: -6.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Japan) was reported at 3.2% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1%, ranging from -4.3% to 8% across 25 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.63%, up from the prior three at 0.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.69%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.02%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.99%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Oct 7) and Household Spending YoY (Oct 8).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - JP
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About Industrial Production MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -4.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.4 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 6.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, October 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 53.5 | 52.5 | 52.40 | Low |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 52.5 | 51.6 | 51.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35.4 | 35.5 | 35.3 | 35.35 | High |
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 21 | 23 | 23.00 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Overtime Pay YoY | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Average Cash Earnings YoY | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Index | 120.6 | 119.7 | 119.75 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 117.7 | 118.1 | 118.05 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 2989 | 3194.6 | 3117.95 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 48.3 | 48 | 49.85 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 46.4 | 46.8 | 46.50 | Low | |