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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.5% in April 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.5% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 0.9% from March's -0.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.17%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.02%, vs 0.08% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 55th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.8
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.29
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.79
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Japan) was reported at 5.1% in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.06%, ranging from -4.3% to 8% across 24 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.13%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.61%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.64%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - JP
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About Industrial Production MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.