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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machinery Orders YoY climbed to 16.9% in June 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Machinery Orders YoY climbed to 16.9% in June 2026, released August 2026, up 18.8% from May's -1.9% reading. The print exceeded the 10.8% consensus by 6.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.88%. Over the past 3 months, Machinery Orders YoY averaged 6.85%, vs 14.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
16.9
Actual
10.8
Consensus
-1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 9.62
Actual: 16.9
Error: -7.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machinery Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 16.9% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.8% by 6.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.29%, ranging from -6.4% to 16.9% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.2%, down from the prior three at 12.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.47%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Machinery Orders YoY has averaged 7.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Machinery Orders YoY - JP
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About Machinery Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machinery Orders YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of orders placed for machinery by businesses and governments. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as it reflects the demand for capital goods and investment in new equipment. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of future economic growth and business confidence.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 16.9 %, consensus 10.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -1.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 15.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |