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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machinery Orders YoY fell to -1.9% in May 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Machinery Orders YoY fell to -1.9% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 17.5% from April's 15.6% reading. The reading missed the 12.9% consensus by 14.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 9.41%. Over the past 3 months, Machinery Orders YoY averaged 10.75%, vs 12.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.9
Actual
12.9
Consensus
15.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.77 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 14.83
Actual: -1.9
Error: +16.73
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machinery Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at -1.9% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 12.9% by 14.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 15.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.45%, ranging from -6.4% to 16.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.53%, down from the prior three at 8.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.12%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Machinery Orders YoY has averaged 4.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoJ Press Conference (Jul 31) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Machinery Orders YoY - JP
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About Machinery Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machinery Orders YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of orders placed for machinery by businesses and governments. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as it reflects the demand for capital goods and investment in new equipment. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of future economic growth and business confidence.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1.9 %, consensus 12.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 15.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.40) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |