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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machinery Orders YoY fell to 5.9% in March 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Machinery Orders YoY fell to 5.9% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 18.8% from February's 24.7% reading. The print exceeded the 4.5% consensus by 1.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.87%. Over the past 3 months, Machinery Orders YoY averaged 19.2%, vs 7.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.9
Actual
4.5
Consensus
24.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 6.1
Actual: 5.9
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machinery Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 5.9% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.5% by 1.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 24.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.2%, ranging from -6.4% to 16.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 12.13%, up from the prior three at 5.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.13%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.09%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Machinery Orders YoY has averaged 5.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Machinery Orders YoY - JP
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About Machinery Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machinery Orders YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of orders placed for machinery by businesses and governments. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as it reflects the demand for capital goods and investment in new equipment. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of future economic growth and business confidence.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 5.9 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 24.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 13.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.