Loading page content
Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machinery Orders YoY climbed to 18.6% in August 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Machinery Orders YoY climbed to 18.6% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 7.4% from July's 11.2% reading. The print exceeded the 15.7% consensus by 2.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.18%. Over the past 3 months, Machinery Orders YoY averaged 14.05%, vs 6.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
18.6
Actual
15.7
Consensus
11.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 16.2
Actual: 18.6
Error: -2.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machinery Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 18.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15.7% by 2.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.41%, ranging from -6.4% to 18.6% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 15.57%, up from the prior three at 6.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.68%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.74%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Machinery Orders YoY has averaged 5.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Machinery Orders YoY - JP
Loading chart data...
About Machinery Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machinery Orders YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of orders placed for machinery by businesses and governments. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as it reflects the demand for capital goods and investment in new equipment. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of future economic growth and business confidence.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 18.6 %, consensus 15.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 11.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 16.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |