Loading page content
Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell to 3.3% in January 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell to 3.3% in January 2026, released March 2026, down 9.3% from December's 12.6% reading. The reading missed the 13.0% consensus by 9.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 10.67%. Tankan Large All Industry Capex is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
3.3
Actual
13
Consensus
12.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 13
Actual: 3.3
Error: +9.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Japan) was reported at 3.3% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 13% by 9.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 12.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.47%, up from the prior three at 8.33%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Tankan Large All Industry Capex has averaged 3.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
SHARE
Tankan Large All Industry Capex - JP
Loading chart data...
About Tankan Large All Industry Capex — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Large All Industry Capex is a key financial indicator that measures the capital expenditures of large companies across all industries in Japan. This data provides valuable insights into the current and future investment plans of major players in the Japanese economy, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and analysts. The Tankan Large All Industry Capex is released quarterly by the Bank of Japan and is closely monitored for its impact on economic growth and market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.3 %, consensus 13 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 12.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 12.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.