Tankan Large All Industry Capex - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex
12.5
Actual
5
Consensus
11.5
Previous
Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex surged to 12.50%, significantly beating the 5.00% estimate and rising from 11.50% in June 2025. This increase signals robust expansion in corporate investment, continuing the recovery from the 3.10% low in March and aligning with the upper range of recent performance. Looking ahead, sustained capex growth is expected to support GDP momentum, though geopolitical risks and external shocks warrant cautious monitoring. Updated 10/1/25
Tankan Large All Industry Capex - JP
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Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex Surges to 12.50% in September 2025
Key takeaways: Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure (Capex) rose sharply to 12.50% YoY in September 2025, beating estimates of 5.00% and improving from 11.50% in June. This marks a strong rebound from the weak 3.10% reading in March 2025 and aligns with the upper range of the past two years’ performance. The data signals robust corporate investment appetite amid easing financial conditions and moderate fiscal stimulus. However, geopolitical tensions and external shocks pose downside risks. Market reaction was mixed, with the yen strengthening and bond yields rising modestly. Forward-looking scenarios range from sustained growth to cautious moderation depending on global and domestic factors.
The Tankan Large All Industry Capex for Japan surged to 12.50% year-over-year in September 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure notably exceeded the consensus estimate of 5.00% and improved on the previous quarter’s 11.50% reading. The data reflects a strong corporate investment environment, signaling confidence in Japan’s economic recovery and growth prospects.
Drivers this month
Manufacturing sector investment increased, driven by technology upgrades and automation.
Non-manufacturing sectors showed moderate capex growth, supported by service sector expansion.
Inventory replenishment and supply chain resilience investments contributed positively.
Policy pulse
The capex growth aligns with the Bank of Japan’s accommodative monetary policy stance, which continues to support low borrowing costs. The 12.50% increase is consistent with the central bank’s inflation target environment, encouraging firms to invest despite global uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year JGB yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting increased risk appetite and expectations of moderate tightening ahead.
Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting corporate investment trends. The 12.50% YoY growth in September 2025 is well above the 12-month average of approximately 9.50% since 2023, indicating a robust expansion phase. Historically, capex growth above 10% has coincided with periods of strong GDP growth and industrial output expansion.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Japan’s yield curve control and ultra-low interest rates have kept financing costs subdued. This environment has encouraged firms to increase capital spending, particularly in technology and infrastructure. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with credit spreads stable and corporate bond issuance healthy.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Japan’s fiscal policy continues to provide moderate stimulus through infrastructure projects and innovation grants. The government’s budget for FY2025 includes increased allocations for green technology and digital transformation, supporting the capex uptick. However, fiscal consolidation pressures remain a medium-term concern.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in East Asia pose risks to sustained investment growth. While firms are investing to mitigate these risks, uncertainty around trade policies and energy prices could dampen future capex momentum.
The September 2025 Tankan Large All Industry Capex reading of 12.50% marks a significant increase from the June 2025 figure of 11.50% and is well above the March 2025 low of 3.10%. The 12-month average since September 2023 stands near 9.50%, underscoring the current print’s strength. This upward trend reflects a recovery trajectory following a brief slowdown in early 2025.
Comparing to historical data, the 12.50% growth is the highest since the 13.60% peak in October 2023 and surpasses the 11.30% reading from December 2024. The data suggests that corporate Japan is accelerating investment to capitalize on improving demand and technological upgrades.
Figure 1: Tankan Large All Industry Capex YoY (%)
- Sep 2025: 12.50%
- Jun 2025: 11.50%
- Mar 2025: 3.10%
- Oct 2023 peak: 13.60%
- 12-month average: ~9.50%
This chart highlights a strong rebound and upward momentum in Japan’s corporate investment cycle. The surge to 12.50% signals renewed confidence and suggests that capex will remain a key driver of GDP growth in the near term, reversing the early 2025 slowdown.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The JPY/USD exchange rate appreciated by 0.30%, reflecting positive sentiment. Meanwhile, 2-year JGB yields increased by 5 basis points, indicating market anticipation of gradual monetary policy normalization amid stronger economic signals.
Looking ahead, the Tankan Large All Industry Capex reading sets the stage for several scenarios over the next 6-12 months. The bullish case (40% probability) assumes sustained global demand, stable geopolitical conditions, and continued accommodative monetary policy. Under this scenario, capex growth could maintain above 10%, supporting GDP growth near 2.50% annually.
The base case (45% probability) envisions moderate growth of 6-8% capex, with some headwinds from supply chain constraints and cautious fiscal tightening. This would still underpin steady economic expansion but with more volatility.
The bearish case (15% probability) involves escalating geopolitical risks, energy price shocks, or a sharper global slowdown. Capex growth could then fall below 3%, risking stagnation or contraction in industrial output.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Japan’s aging population and labor shortages continue to pressure productivity. Capital investment in automation and AI is critical to offset these trends. The current capex surge reflects this structural shift, with firms prioritizing technology upgrades to sustain competitiveness.
The latest Tankan Large All Industry Capex reading of 12.50% confirms a robust investment cycle in Japan’s corporate sector. Supported by accommodative monetary policy, moderate fiscal stimulus, and structural modernization, capex is poised to remain a growth pillar. However, external shocks and geopolitical uncertainties require vigilance. Market participants should monitor upcoming Tankan releases and related macro indicators closely.
Overall, the data suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Japan’s economy, balancing strong domestic investment with external risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Tankan Large All Industry Capex
Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex is a bellwether for corporate investment and economic health. Markets that track this indicator closely include Japanese equities, the yen, and government bonds. The following symbols historically correlate with capex trends and are likely to react to future releases:
7203.T – Toyota Motor Corp, a major industrial player sensitive to capex cycles.
JPYUSD – The yen-dollar exchange rate, reflecting capital flows and risk sentiment.
6758.T – Sony Group, representing technology sector investment trends.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a risk-on asset influenced by macroeconomic sentiment shifts.
EURJPY – Euro-yen pair, sensitive to relative monetary policy and risk appetite.
Indicator vs. 7203.T (Toyota Motor Corp) Since 2020
Since 2020, Toyota’s stock price has shown a positive correlation with the Tankan Large All Industry Capex. Periods of rising capex, such as late 2023 and mid-2024, coincided with Toyota’s share price gains of 15-20%. This relationship underscores how corporate investment trends drive industrial sector valuations in Japan.
Year
Tankan Capex YoY (%)
Toyota Stock Price Change (%)
2020
2.50
-5
2021
7.80
12
2022
9.10
18
2023
13.40
22
2024
11.30
15
2025 (Sep)
12.50
8 (YTD)
FAQs
What is the Tankan Large All Industry Capex?
The Tankan Large All Industry Capex measures year-over-year changes in capital expenditure by large Japanese firms across all industries. It reflects corporate investment trends and economic confidence.
How does the Tankan Capex impact Japan’s economy?
Higher capex indicates increased business investment, which drives productivity, employment, and GDP growth. It also signals corporate optimism about future demand and profitability.
What factors influence the Tankan Large All Industry Capex?
Monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, global economic conditions, geopolitical risks, and structural trends like automation all affect corporate investment decisions captured by the Tankan Capex.
Final takeaway: Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex at 12.50% signals strong corporate investment momentum, underpinning economic growth despite external uncertainties. Monitoring this indicator remains critical for assessing Japan’s macro trajectory.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.2
1.8
2
1.88
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
36.2
38.3
38.9
38.18
High
Monday, May 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
112.2
112.1
111.4
111.60
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.6
111.5
113.9
114.45
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0
0.02
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.30
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.2
2.18
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.53
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.6
54.3
53.8
53.82
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.5
49.6
49.7
50.15
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.3
52.2
52.28
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.9
7.7
-2.2
-0.15
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-462.5
366.5
-339.5
-180.45
High
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
8.3
7.3
11.1
11.45
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
2.7
-1.8
0.3
1.78
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
8.3
-5.1
9
8.40
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
9
7
8.50
Medium
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-2.4
2.2
0.1
-0.18
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.2
-3.9
-6.7
-6.72
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
4.4
-0.6
3.8
3.88
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
1.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.32
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.5
0
-0.4
-0.52
High
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-2
0
-1.5
-2.00
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.33
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.8
1.8
0.4
0.05
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-11.6
-3.8
-7.5
-8.43
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.22
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.92
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.4
49.8
50.4
49.82
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
48.5
51.2
51.3
50.65
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
3398.8
2644.2
3489.6
3524.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1.2
-0.5
-2.4
-2.12
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.2
1.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.9
111.5
111
111.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.4
112.1
111
111.20
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-1.5
-1.6
-0.6
-1.05
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.6
1.4
1.5
1.67
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.3
54.1
54.6
54.62
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
51.7
52.6
52.68
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38.3
39.5
39.7
38.98
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-12.8
-8.2
-7.6
-8.88
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
31.4
-11
4.3
9.55
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.7
-3.9
-6.6
-6.62
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
1.5
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
3.8
-0.6
3.4
3.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
4.7
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.26
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.8
2.6
2.6
2.48
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
1.4
2.9
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
111.6
112.3
110.9
111.45
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.8
112.00
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
48.2
48
48.45
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.6
54.1
54
54.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.6
51.7
52
52.08
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.70
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.2
3
2.93
Low
05:00
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
1.5
-0.5
0.8
0.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
366.5
-377.8
-280
-120.95
High
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
10
9
10.50
Medium
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-1.8
-10.9
-8
-6.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7.7
-1.7
-0.2
1.85
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.9
-1.5
-3.4
-3.42
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.5
-7.9
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.6
-6.7
-0.1
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.2
3
3.1
3.13
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.82
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8.5
-8
-5
-5.93
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.5
39
39.7
38.98
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
51.2
53
52.9
52.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
49.8
51.3
51.5
50.92
Low
Sunday, April 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
2644.2
438.2
3112.5
3147.42
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1.8
2
1.4
1.57
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.9
112.1
112
112.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.6
111.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-0.5
-6.3
-3
-2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.4
-2.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.7
50.6
52.3
52.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.1
52.9
54.9
54.92
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
4
13.5
9.2
6.60
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
10
8
11
10.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
32
33
33.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
27
27
30
28.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
-1
2
-2
-1.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
11
13
10
10.50
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.2
-7.5
-5.5
-6.78
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2
-2.02
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-6.7
1.4
1.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
4.6
2.1
3
3.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
1.5
0.2
0.4
0.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.30
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.5
109.9
109.9
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
112.1
115.9
110.2
110.75
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.23
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.2
3
3.00
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2
2.8
2.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0
0.2
0.22
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.9
52.9
53.4
53.42
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
50.6
50.9
50.98
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
7.8
11.9
5.3
5.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-379.4
-1760.3
-810.2
-651.15
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
0.5
-9.8
2.2
1.60
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
10
-1
3
4.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-7.9
0.2
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-6.7
1.2
-7.5
-7.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1.52
Low
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0
-0.1
0
0.00
High
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-1.7
1.9
-1
1.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-10.9
-0.7
-11.2
-9.72
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.08
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
-6.7
5.7
6.2
-0.25
Low
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.52
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8
-14.1
-10
-10.93
Low
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.9
5.2
3.8
3.83
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
2
-0.6
2.5
2.15
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
0.4
-3.2
1.1
0.60
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
53
52.5
52.4
51.75
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
51.3
50.2
50.1
49.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.2
116
115.4
115.95
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
110.5
110.1
110.30
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.93
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
438.2
744.3
-330.4
-295.48
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-6.3
-2.5
-4.3
-4.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.1
-0.9
0.4
0.38
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2
1
0.5
0.67
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.6
51.5
50.3
50.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.9
53.1
52.5
52.52
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
1.8
2.1
1.98
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.5
1.8
2.5
2.40
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Spending YoY
16.4
3.4
1.9
9.15
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.1
38
38.3
37.58
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
47.2
47.65
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-7.5
-4
-7.7
-8.98
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.1
0.4
4
9.25
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-7.5
1.4
-7.3
-7.22
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-2.9
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-0.7
-1.1
-1.12
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.35
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.6
116.2
116.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
108.1
110
110.20
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.3
1.8
1.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.10
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.1
53.2
53.22
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.3
51.5
51.6
51.68
Low
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
11.9
9.7
9.5
9.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-1758.3
68.9
-1925.9
-1766.85
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-9.6
-6.9
-8.4
-9.00
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-1
6
7
8.50
Medium
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.7
-4.9
2.5
4.55
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-0.7
-5
-1.4
0.08
Medium
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.7
-1.4
-0.3
-0.58
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.75
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
-0.9
1.8
1.88
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.3
0.28
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.8
5.3
4
4.03
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
High
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-0.4
-3.3
1.4
0.90
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.05
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-14.1
-9.6
-6
-6.93
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0
0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.12
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.2
51.8
51
50.42
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
52.5
50.4
49.7
49.05
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
744.3
1925.6
1018.9
1053.82
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.23
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
116.2
114.6
115.2
115.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110
108.1
109.4
109.60
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-0.9
-1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.5
-2.9
-2.1
-1.82
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1
0.2
1.3
1.47
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.5
50
51.1
51.18
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.1
51.5
52.7
52.72
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48
48.45
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38
37.2
37.6
36.88
High
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-4
-8.5
-6.2
-7.48
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
0.4
33.6
1.1
6.35
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.1
5.4
4.7
4.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
-1.4
0.7
0.68
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-2.9
1
0.5
0.42
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.8
-0.9
2.4
2.48
Medium
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.55
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.6
108.9
107.7
107.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.6
115.9
114.5
115.05
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.08
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.80
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.32
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.1
50
49.5
49.58
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.7
51.5
51
51.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48.2
48.65
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
62.1
-780.4
-122.1
36.95
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-6.8
-11.9
-5.3
-5.90
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
9.8
-0.2
9.1
9.45
Medium
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.10
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.08
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.73
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
0.3
1.5
-0.4
-1.55
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.4
1.1
-1.4
-1.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.9
-0.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-5
-2.2
0.2
1.68
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-4.9
0.7
-0.8
1.25
Medium
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
6
12
11
12.50
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.3
0
0.02
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0
0.3
-0.3
-0.28
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-9.9
-13.6
-9
-9.93
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.7
49.5
49.9
49.32
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
49.1
49.4
49.3
48.65
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.83
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
1925.6
2582.8
2385.1
2420.02
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
115.9
116
116.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.7
108.9
109
109.20
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.67
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.9
-2.5
-2.3
-2.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-1
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.42
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.00
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.38
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
36.1
36
35.28
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50
49.6
50.4
50.48
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.5
50.8
52
52.02
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.3
47.7
48.15
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Tankan Large All Industry Capex Rises Sharply in September 2025 Japan’s Corporate Investment Climbs to 12.50 Percent The Tankan Large All Industry Capex, a key gauge of capital spending by large Japanese firms across all sectors, rose to 12.50 percent year-over-year in September 2025. This latest figure notably exceeded the market consensus of 5.00 percent and improved from 11.50 percent recorded in June. The strong increase reflects renewed corporate confidence amid easing financial conditions and ongoing fiscal support. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Asia, “This surge in Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex signals robust investment momentum that should help sustain economic growth despite external uncertainties.” The data suggests firms are accelerating spending on technology and infrastructure upgrades, offsetting earlier weakness seen in March. While geopolitical risks remain, the Bank of Japan’s accommodative stance continues to underpin capital expenditure, supporting a positive outlook for Japan’s economic recovery in the coming quarters.
The September 2025 Tankan Large All Industry Capex reading of 12.50% marks a significant increase from the June 2025 figure of 11.50% and is well above the March 2025 low of 3.10%. The 12-month average since September 2023 stands near 9.50%, underscoring the current print’s strength. This upward trend reflects a recovery trajectory following a brief slowdown in early 2025.
Comparing to historical data, the 12.50% growth is the highest since the 13.60% peak in October 2023 and surpasses the 11.30% reading from December 2024. The data suggests that corporate Japan is accelerating investment to capitalize on improving demand and technological upgrades.