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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index climbed to 7 in January 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index climbed to 7 in January 2026, released March 2026, up 1 from December's 6 reading. The reading matched the 7 consensus. Tankan Small Manufacturers Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Tankan Small Manufacturers Index is now the highest in 85 months.
Latest Release
7
Actual
7
Consensus
6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 7
Actual: 7
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Japan) was reported at 7.00 in March 2026. This matched the market consensus of 7.00 exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.67, up from the prior three at 1.00. In March readings over the past 3 years, Tankan Small Manufacturers Index has averaged 2.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Tankan Small Manufacturers Index - JP
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About Tankan Small Manufacturers Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of small manufacturing businesses in Japan. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the country's manufacturing sector, serving as a key tool for investors, analysts, and policymakers in making informed decisions. This index is based on a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan, making it a reliable and timely source of information for assessing the current and future state of the Japanese economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 7, consensus 7. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 6. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.