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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index climbed to 14 in July 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index climbed to 14 in July 2026, released September 2026, up 5 from June's 9 reading. The print exceeded the 11 consensus by 3. Tankan Small Manufacturers Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Tankan Small Manufacturers Index is now the highest in 97 months.
Latest Release
14
Actual
11
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 11
Actual: 14
Error: -3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Japan) was reported at 14.00 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.00 by 3.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 9.00, up from the prior three at 1.33. In September readings over the past 3 years, Tankan Small Manufacturers Index has averaged 5.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 16) and Balance of Trade (Oct 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Tankan Small Manufacturers Index - JP
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About Tankan Small Manufacturers Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of small manufacturing businesses in Japan. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the country's manufacturing sector, serving as a key tool for investors, analysts, and policymakers in making informed decisions. This index is based on a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan, making it a reliable and timely source of information for assessing the current and future state of the Japanese economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 14, consensus 11. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 7. Before that (Oct 2025): 6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 5.2 | -3.7 | 3 | 4.10 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 18.6 | 11.2 | 15.7 | 17.15 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | -4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -2.00 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -2.4 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -2.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 2.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.05 | Low |