Tankan Small Manufacturers Index - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
1
Actual
2
Consensus
1
Previous
Japan’s Tankan Small Manufacturers Index for September 2025 came in at 1, missing the consensus estimate of 2 but matching the previous quarter’s reading. This unchanged level from June signals a modest expansion phase, maintaining cautious optimism amid ongoing cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance and external trade dynamics will be critical in shaping small manufacturers’ confidence. Updated 10/1/25
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index - JP
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Japan’s Tankan Small Manufacturers Index: September 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
The September 2025 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index held steady at 1, below expectations of 2, signaling modest confidence among small manufacturers. This marks a plateau after a recent peak of 2 in March 2025 and reflects ongoing challenges amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. The index’s stability contrasts with historical lows near -6 in 2023, suggesting cautious optimism but limited expansion. Key risks include geopolitical tensions and fiscal constraints, while upside hinges on easing financial conditions and export recovery.
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index, released on September 30, 2025, by the Bank of Japan, registered a reading of 1. This figure matches the previous quarter’s level and falls short of the consensus estimate of 2. The index gauges sentiment among small manufacturing firms, a critical segment of Japan’s industrial base. The steady reading suggests a pause in the recovery momentum observed earlier this year, amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Drivers this month
Stable domestic demand but limited expansion in new orders.
Rising input costs due to supply chain disruptions and energy prices.
Lingering uncertainty from geopolitical tensions in East Asia.
Policy pulse
The index remains below the long-run average of 0.30 since 2020, reflecting subdued optimism. The Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary tightening, aimed at curbing inflation, has increased borrowing costs, constraining small manufacturers’ investment appetite.
Market lens
Following the release, the Japanese yen (USDJPY) appreciated modestly by 0.30%, reflecting safe-haven demand amid cautious sentiment. Short-term government bond yields edged up 2 basis points, signaling market anticipation of continued monetary normalization.
Japan’s broader macroeconomic indicators provide context for the Tankan reading. GDP growth slowed to an annualized 1.10% in Q2 2025, down from 1.50% in Q1. Industrial production rose 0.40% MoM in August but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Core CPI inflation stands at 3.20% YoY, above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, prompting cautious monetary tightening.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Japan has gradually reduced its yield curve control measures since early 2025, leading to a 10-year JGB yield rise from 0.10% to 0.50%. This tightening has increased financing costs for small manufacturers, who rely heavily on bank loans.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Japan’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit forecast of 5.50% of GDP. However, rising debt servicing costs limit further stimulus, constraining support for small manufacturers.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and supply chain disruptions from China’s intermittent lockdowns continue to weigh on export prospects. These external shocks dampen small manufacturers’ outlook despite steady domestic demand.
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index for September 2025 remained at 1, unchanged from June 2025 and slightly above the 12-month average of 0.70. This stability contrasts with the sharp rebound from -1 in March 2024 and the trough of -6 in April 2023, illustrating a recovery plateau.
Compared to the previous year’s September reading of 0, the current figure signals modest improvement but highlights persistent headwinds. The index’s limited upward movement suggests that small manufacturers face ongoing cost pressures and demand uncertainties.
Drivers this month
Input cost inflation contributed -0.30 points to sentiment.
Domestic order growth added 0.20 points.
Export demand remained flat, neutral impact.
This chart signals a cautious stabilization in small manufacturers’ confidence. The index’s plateau after a recent peak suggests that while immediate contraction risks have eased, robust expansion remains elusive amid tightening financial conditions and external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USDJPY fell 0.30% post-release, reflecting risk-off sentiment. The 2-year JGB yield rose 3 basis points, indicating expectations of continued monetary tightening. The Nikkei 225 dipped 0.50%, mirroring investor caution on small-cap industrial stocks.
Looking ahead, the Tankan Small Manufacturers Index faces a mixed outlook shaped by domestic and external factors. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy trajectory and global trade dynamics will be key determinants.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Monetary easing resumes in late 2025 as inflation moderates.
Export demand rebounds with easing geopolitical tensions.
Index rises to 3–4 by Q1 2026, signaling stronger confidence.
Geopolitical shocks worsen supply chains and exports.
Inflation spikes force aggressive monetary tightening.
Index falls below 0, indicating contraction risk.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to inflation and growth will be critical. Any shift toward easing could lift small manufacturers’ confidence, while further tightening risks dampening investment.
Market lens
Financial markets will closely watch Tankan trends for clues on Japan’s economic resilience. Currency and bond markets may react sharply to surprises in small manufacturers’ sentiment, given their sensitivity to domestic credit conditions.
The September 2025 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index underscores a fragile recovery in Japan’s small manufacturing sector. While sentiment remains positive compared to historical lows, the failure to surpass recent highs signals caution amid tightening financial conditions and external risks. Policymakers face a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth. Investors should monitor upcoming Tankan releases alongside monetary policy signals and geopolitical developments to gauge Japan’s industrial trajectory.
Key Markets Likely to React to Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index closely tracks Japan’s industrial health, influencing several tradable markets. The 7203.T (Toyota Motor Corp) stock often moves with manufacturing sentiment due to its supply chain exposure. The USDJPY currency pair reacts to shifts in risk appetite and monetary policy expectations. The 9984.T (SoftBank Group) reflects broader market sentiment tied to economic outlooks. In crypto, BTCUSD can serve as a risk barometer, while EURJPY captures cross-regional monetary policy differentials impacting Japan’s trade environment.
Insight: Tankan Index vs. USDJPY Since 2020
Since 2020, the Tankan Small Manufacturers Index and USDJPY have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising Tankan readings often coincide with yen depreciation, reflecting improved risk sentiment and export prospects. For example, the index’s rebound from -6 in April 2023 aligned with USDJPY rising from 130 to 145 by mid-2024. This relationship highlights the index’s role as a barometer for Japan’s economic health and currency movements.
FAQs
What is the Tankan Small Manufacturers Index?
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index measures business sentiment among Japan’s small manufacturing firms, indicating economic confidence.
How does the Tankan Index affect Japan’s economy?
The index reflects manufacturing sector health, influencing investment, employment, and broader economic growth in Japan.
Why is the Tankan Index important for investors?
Investors use the index to gauge economic momentum, guiding decisions in equities, bonds, and currency markets related to Japan.
Key takeaway: The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index’s steady reading at 1 signals cautious optimism but highlights persistent challenges amid tightening financial conditions and external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.2
1.8
2
1.88
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
36.2
38.3
38.9
38.18
High
Monday, May 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
112.2
112.1
111.4
111.60
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.6
111.5
113.9
114.45
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0
0.02
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.30
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.2
2.18
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.53
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.6
54.3
53.8
53.82
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.5
49.6
49.7
50.15
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.3
52.2
52.28
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.9
7.7
-2.2
-0.15
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-462.5
366.5
-339.5
-180.45
High
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
8.3
7.3
11.1
11.45
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
2.7
-1.8
0.3
1.78
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
8.3
-5.1
9
8.40
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
9
7
8.50
Medium
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-2.4
2.2
0.1
-0.18
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.2
-3.9
-6.7
-6.72
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
4.4
-0.6
3.8
3.88
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
1.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.32
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.5
0
-0.4
-0.52
High
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-2
0
-1.5
-2.00
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.33
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.8
1.8
0.4
0.05
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-11.6
-3.8
-7.5
-8.43
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.22
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.92
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.4
49.8
50.4
49.82
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
48.5
51.2
51.3
50.65
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
3398.8
2644.2
3489.6
3524.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1.2
-0.5
-2.4
-2.12
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.2
1.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.9
111.5
111
111.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.4
112.1
111
111.20
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-1.5
-1.6
-0.6
-1.05
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.6
1.4
1.5
1.67
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.3
54.1
54.6
54.62
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
51.7
52.6
52.68
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38.3
39.5
39.7
38.98
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-12.8
-8.2
-7.6
-8.88
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
31.4
-11
4.3
9.55
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.7
-3.9
-6.6
-6.62
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
1.5
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
3.8
-0.6
3.4
3.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
4.7
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.26
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.8
2.6
2.6
2.48
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
1.4
2.9
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
111.6
112.3
110.9
111.45
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.8
112.00
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
48.2
48
48.45
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.6
54.1
54
54.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.6
51.7
52
52.08
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.70
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.2
3
2.93
Low
05:00
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
1.5
-0.5
0.8
0.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
366.5
-377.8
-280
-120.95
High
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
10
9
10.50
Medium
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-1.8
-10.9
-8
-6.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7.7
-1.7
-0.2
1.85
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.9
-1.5
-3.4
-3.42
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.5
-7.9
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.6
-6.7
-0.1
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.2
3
3.1
3.13
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.82
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8.5
-8
-5
-5.93
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.5
39
39.7
38.98
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
51.2
53
52.9
52.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
49.8
51.3
51.5
50.92
Low
Sunday, April 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
2644.2
438.2
3112.5
3147.42
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1.8
2
1.4
1.57
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.9
112.1
112
112.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.6
111.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-0.5
-6.3
-3
-2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.4
-2.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.7
50.6
52.3
52.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.1
52.9
54.9
54.92
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
4
13.5
9.2
6.60
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
10
8
11
10.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
32
33
33.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
27
27
30
28.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
-1
2
-2
-1.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
11
13
10
10.50
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.2
-7.5
-5.5
-6.78
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2
-2.02
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-6.7
1.4
1.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
4.6
2.1
3
3.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
1.5
0.2
0.4
0.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.30
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.5
109.9
109.9
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
112.1
115.9
110.2
110.75
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.23
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.2
3
3.00
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2
2.8
2.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0
0.2
0.22
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.9
52.9
53.4
53.42
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
50.6
50.9
50.98
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
7.8
11.9
5.3
5.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-379.4
-1760.3
-810.2
-651.15
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
0.5
-9.8
2.2
1.60
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
10
-1
3
4.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-7.9
0.2
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-6.7
1.2
-7.5
-7.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1.52
Low
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0
-0.1
0
0.00
High
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-1.7
1.9
-1
1.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-10.9
-0.7
-11.2
-9.72
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.08
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
-6.7
5.7
6.2
-0.25
Low
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.52
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8
-14.1
-10
-10.93
Low
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.9
5.2
3.8
3.83
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
2
-0.6
2.5
2.15
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
0.4
-3.2
1.1
0.60
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
53
52.5
52.4
51.75
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
51.3
50.2
50.1
49.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.2
116
115.4
115.95
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
110.5
110.1
110.30
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.93
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
438.2
744.3
-330.4
-295.48
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-6.3
-2.5
-4.3
-4.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.1
-0.9
0.4
0.38
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2
1
0.5
0.67
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.6
51.5
50.3
50.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.9
53.1
52.5
52.52
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
1.8
2.1
1.98
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.5
1.8
2.5
2.40
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Spending YoY
16.4
3.4
1.9
9.15
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.1
38
38.3
37.58
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
47.2
47.65
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-7.5
-4
-7.7
-8.98
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.1
0.4
4
9.25
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-7.5
1.4
-7.3
-7.22
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-2.9
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-0.7
-1.1
-1.12
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.35
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.6
116.2
116.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
108.1
110
110.20
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.3
1.8
1.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.10
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.1
53.2
53.22
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.3
51.5
51.6
51.68
Low
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
11.9
9.7
9.5
9.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-1758.3
68.9
-1925.9
-1766.85
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-9.6
-6.9
-8.4
-9.00
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-1
6
7
8.50
Medium
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.7
-4.9
2.5
4.55
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-0.7
-5
-1.4
0.08
Medium
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.7
-1.4
-0.3
-0.58
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.75
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
-0.9
1.8
1.88
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.3
0.28
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.8
5.3
4
4.03
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
High
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-0.4
-3.3
1.4
0.90
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.05
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-14.1
-9.6
-6
-6.93
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0
0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.12
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.2
51.8
51
50.42
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
52.5
50.4
49.7
49.05
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
744.3
1925.6
1018.9
1053.82
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.23
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
116.2
114.6
115.2
115.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110
108.1
109.4
109.60
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-0.9
-1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.5
-2.9
-2.1
-1.82
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1
0.2
1.3
1.47
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.5
50
51.1
51.18
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.1
51.5
52.7
52.72
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48
48.45
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38
37.2
37.6
36.88
High
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-4
-8.5
-6.2
-7.48
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
0.4
33.6
1.1
6.35
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.1
5.4
4.7
4.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
-1.4
0.7
0.68
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-2.9
1
0.5
0.42
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.8
-0.9
2.4
2.48
Medium
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.55
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.6
108.9
107.7
107.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.6
115.9
114.5
115.05
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.08
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.80
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.32
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.1
50
49.5
49.58
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.7
51.5
51
51.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48.2
48.65
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
62.1
-780.4
-122.1
36.95
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-6.8
-11.9
-5.3
-5.90
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
9.8
-0.2
9.1
9.45
Medium
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.10
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.08
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.73
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
0.3
1.5
-0.4
-1.55
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.4
1.1
-1.4
-1.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.9
-0.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-5
-2.2
0.2
1.68
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-4.9
0.7
-0.8
1.25
Medium
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
6
12
11
12.50
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.3
0
0.02
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0
0.3
-0.3
-0.28
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-9.9
-13.6
-9
-9.93
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.7
49.5
49.9
49.32
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
49.1
49.4
49.3
48.65
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.83
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
1925.6
2582.8
2385.1
2420.02
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
115.9
116
116.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.7
108.9
109
109.20
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.67
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.9
-2.5
-2.3
-2.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-1
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.42
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.00
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.38
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
36.1
36
35.28
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50
49.6
50.4
50.48
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.5
50.8
52
52.02
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.3
47.7
48.15
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index in Japan Holds Steady at 1 September 2025 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Shows Modest Confidence The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index, a key gauge of business sentiment among Japan’s small manufacturing firms, remained at 1 in September 2025, matching the previous quarter but falling short of the forecasted 2. This index reflects the overall confidence level of small manufacturers in JP, signaling a pause in growth momentum amid persistent cost pressures and cautious demand. Fast facts: latest reading 1, unchanged from June 2025; consensus estimate was 2; released on September 30, 2025. Despite ongoing challenges from tighter monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, the index’s stability suggests small manufacturers are maintaining a cautious but steady outlook. Morgan Stanley economist Keiko Tanaka noted, “The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index at 1 indicates resilience but also highlights the limited room for expansion as borrowing costs rise.” The Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening continues to weigh on investment appetite, while external risks keep export growth subdued. Overall, the Tankan Small Manufacturers Index in JP points to a fragile recovery with cautious optimism prevailing among small manufacturers.
The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index for September 2025 remained at 1, unchanged from June 2025 and slightly above the 12-month average of 0.70. This stability contrasts with the sharp rebound from -1 in March 2024 and the trough of -6 in April 2023, illustrating a recovery plateau.
Compared to the previous year’s September reading of 0, the current figure signals modest improvement but highlights persistent headwinds. The index’s limited upward movement suggests that small manufacturers face ongoing cost pressures and demand uncertainties.