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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% in July 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 2.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.57%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 2.5%, vs 2.63% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Japan) was reported at 2.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.56%, ranging from 2.4% to 2.7% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.47%, down from the prior three at 2.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.07%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 2.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - JP
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About Unemployment Rate — Japan
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.35 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.85 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High | |