Unemployment Rate - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Japan Unemployment Rate
2.6
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 2.60%, exactly matching consensus and November’s reading. This unchanged rate from October’s 2.60% signals a stable labor market with no expansion or contraction momentum. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its cautious policy stance amid subdued inflation and steady employment conditions. Updated 1/30/26
Unemployment Rate - JP
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Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 2.60%, matching both consensus and the prior month. The labor market remains tight, but momentum has plateaued, with macro and policy implications for 2026.
Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025: Labor Market Holds Steady at 2.60%
Japan’s national unemployment rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.60%, unchanged from November and in line with market expectations. This reading, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, underscores a stable—yet no longer tightening—labor market as the country enters 2026.
December 2025’s unemployment rate remained at 2.60%, matching both November 2025 and the 12-month average. This marks the fourth consecutive month at this level, following a brief dip to 2.30% in August 2025. The labor force participation rate held firm, with no significant uptick in job-seeking activity or layoffs. Key contributors to stability included robust hiring in healthcare and logistics, offsetting mild softness in manufacturing.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to monitor labor market slack as it weighs normalization of ultra-loose monetary policy. With unemployment steady and inflation still below the 2% target, the BoJ is unlikely to tighten aggressively. Fiscal policy remains supportive, with government employment programs and subsidies cushioning downside risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USDJPY was little changed, trading in a narrow 0.10% range after the print. Equity markets (Nikkei 225) showed muted response, reflecting the market’s expectation of a steady jobs picture. Japanese government bond yields were stable, as the data did not alter the BoJ’s near-term policy outlook.
Labor market context
Japan’s unemployment rate has hovered between 2.30% and 2.60% over the past year. December’s 2.60% matches readings from November, October, and late September 2025. For historical context, the rate was 2.40% in March 2025 and 2.50% in May and June. The 12-month average stands at 2.60%, highlighting the labor market’s remarkable stability despite global headwinds.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Japan’s labor market has weathered external shocks, including supply chain disruptions and regional geopolitical tensions. The yen’s depreciation in 2025 supported export-oriented sectors, helping offset weakness in domestic demand. However, risks remain from potential trade frictions and energy price volatility.
Structural & long-run trends
Demographic headwinds—an aging population and shrinking workforce—continue to underpin Japan’s low unemployment. Labor shortages persist in healthcare, construction, and logistics, while automation and digitalization reshape job demand. The steady rate reflects both cyclical resilience and structural constraints.
December 2025’s unemployment rate (2.60%) was unchanged from November 2025 (2.60%) and matched the 12-month average (2.60%). The last significant deviation was August 2025’s 2.30%, after which the rate returned to its prior range. The chart below visualizes this plateau, with minimal month-to-month volatility since September.
Compared to March 2025 (2.40%) and May-June 2025 (2.50%), the current level signals a stabilization rather than further tightening. The labor market’s resilience is evident, but the absence of improvement suggests limited slack reduction ahead.
2.40 ┤ ┌─┐
2.30 ┤ ┌┘ │
2.50 ┤ ┌─┘ └─┐
2.60 ┼─┘ └─────────────
Mar May Jun Aug Oct Nov Dec
What This Chart Tells Us: The unemployment rate has plateaued at 2.60% since September 2025, reversing the brief improvement seen in August. This trend signals a mature labor market with limited near-term upside for further tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USDJPY was flat, reflecting no surprise in the data. The Nikkei 225 and JGB yields were similarly unmoved, as investors had priced in a steady print. The lack of volatility underscores the market’s confidence in Japan’s labor market stability.
Scenario analysis
Bullish (20%): Unemployment dips to 2.40% by mid-2026, driven by a rebound in manufacturing and tourism, and further yen depreciation boosting exports.
Base case (65%): The rate remains at 2.50–2.60% through 2026, as demographic constraints and moderate growth keep the labor market tight but static.
Bearish (15%): Unemployment rises above 2.70% if global demand falters, energy prices spike, or policy missteps occur.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global growth and successful labor market reforms. Downside risks stem from external shocks, yen volatility, and potential policy errors. The BoJ’s cautious stance and fiscal support should limit sharp deterioration, but structural headwinds cap upside.
Policy pulse
With unemployment steady and inflation subdued, the BoJ is expected to maintain its current policy stance. Any shift toward tightening would likely require a sustained drop in unemployment or a sharp rise in wages and prices.
Summary and implications
Japan’s December 2025 unemployment rate of 2.60% confirms a stable but mature labor market. The plateau reflects both cyclical resilience and structural constraints, with limited room for further tightening. Policymakers are likely to stay the course, while investors should watch for signs of wage growth or external shocks that could alter the outlook.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
Japan’s unemployment rate is a key macro indicator for both domestic and global investors. Movements in this metric can influence currency pairs, equity indices, and even crypto assets sensitive to risk sentiment. Below are five tradable symbols whose prices historically track or react to shifts in Japan’s labor market, each selected from Sigmanomics’ market pages:
N225 – The Nikkei 225 index, highly sensitive to domestic economic momentum and labor market trends.
7203.T – Toyota Motor Corp., a bellwether for Japan’s manufacturing sector and employment.
USDJPY – The yen-dollar pair, often moves on labor data as it shapes BoJ policy expectations.
EURJPY – The euro-yen cross, reflects both Japanese and European macro trends.
BTCJPY – Bitcoin priced in yen, can react to shifts in risk sentiment following macro releases.
Indicator vs. USDJPY since 2020:
Year
Unemployment Rate (%)
USDJPY (avg)
2020
2.80
106.80
2021
2.80
109.70
2022
2.60
131.50
2023
2.50
139.20
2024
2.60
145.70
2025
2.60
148.30
USDJPY has trended higher as unemployment stabilized, reflecting both policy divergence and Japan’s labor market resilience. Major deviations in the unemployment rate have historically triggered sharp yen moves.
FAQ: Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025
Q1: What is Japan’s unemployment rate for December 2025?
A1: The rate was 2.60%, unchanged from November and matching the 12-month average, per the Sigmanomics database.
Q2: Why is the unemployment rate important for markets?
A2: It signals labor market health, influences BoJ policy, and impacts assets like the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY.
Q3: What are the main risks to the outlook?
A3: Downside risks include global demand shocks and yen volatility; upside risks stem from stronger growth or reforms.
Takeaway: Japan’s labor market remains tight but has lost momentum, with policy and market implications finely balanced as 2026 begins.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Desk
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 1/30/26
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.20
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.02
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
130010.87
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.50
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
1.43
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.30
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
12.55
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.43
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.43
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2348.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.67
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.65
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.00
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
114.95
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.20
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.78
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.78
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
2.20
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.27
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.78
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.32
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.88
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.32
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.47
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.53
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-2.03
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-3.97
Medium
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-1.25
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
0.77
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.77
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.15
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.82
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
114.85
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.40
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-1.17
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.27
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.48
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.15
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.80
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.30
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.77
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.80
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.68
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.43
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
12.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
3.65
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.05
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
0.50
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-2.05
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.27
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.35
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-3.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
12.45
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.10
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.40
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
9.33
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
17.25
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
9.33
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.63
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.43
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.17
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4542.75
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
115.85
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.38
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.03
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.38
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.43
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.90
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.02
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.45
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.48
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.42
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.42
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.17
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.73
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
0.63
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
0.77
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
1.45
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
0.63
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
0.77
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.45
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.47
Low
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
12.97
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
0.83
Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.03
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.38
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.03
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.38
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
109.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.05
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.38
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
109.98
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.03
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.88
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
3.00
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.23
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.08
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.97
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
11.91
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
2.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
5.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
2.55
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-1.63
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.90
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.50
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.15
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.25
Low
Sunday, December 14, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
15
14
15
15.00
High
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
12.6
12.5
12
12.30
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
15
12
13
14.00
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
6
1
2
4.00
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
28
28
28
28.00
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
34
35
34.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index
15
14
15
15.00
Low
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.5
2.6
1.4
1.73
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
3.3
2.5
0.5
0.20
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
1.6
3.8
1.5
1.55
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
16.8
9.4
12.45
Low
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
4.7
3.8
4.1
4.40
Low
Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.30
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
10
17
12
10.33
Low
Monday, December 8, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-
17
12
10.33
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.7
49.1
49.5
49.13
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.3
53.1
49.3
49.43
Low
Sunday, December 7, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.2
4.1
4
4.07
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
2834
4483
3109.5
4058.25
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-2.3
2.1
-2
-1.90
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.10
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.28
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.3
2.8
2.80
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.2
1.3
0.4
-26001.73
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.6
0.5
-0.5
-0.47
Medium
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.5
1
0.3
0.35
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.6
2.1
2.2
2.20
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-
17
12
10.33
Low
Friday, December 5, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-
17
12
10.33
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.4
114.9
114.9
114.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110
108.2
109.3
109.20
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
0.5
1.7
1.8
1.33
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110
108.6
109.3
109.28
Low
03:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-
17
12
10.33
Low
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-3
1.8
1
-0.00
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-3.5
-0.7
0.7
0.43
Medium
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-
17
12
10.33
Low
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
52
51.5
52
51.98
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.2
53.1
53.1
53.02
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.2
53.1
53.1
53.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Services PMI
52
51.5
52
52.08
Low
Tuesday, December 2, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.5
35.8
35.9
36.12
High
Monday, December 1, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-8.5
-7.8
-8.5
-8.67
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.2
48.8
48.83
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.7
48.2
48.8
48.97
Low
Sunday, November 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
2.9
7.6
5.9
4.40
Medium
Friday, November 28, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
0.3
0.6
0.93
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
0.5
0.8
0.67
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
-10.1
34.7
4.8
5.77
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
3.2
-7.3
-5.2
-4.77
Medium
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
1.5
3.8
3.1
3.15
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
2.6
-0.6
-0.27
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.7
0.2
0.8
0.67
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
1.6
0
0.6
0.93
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.65
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.87
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.52
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.2
1.20
Low
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
108.6
107
108
107.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.6
112.8
114.6
114.25
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1
0.57
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
1.8
1.33
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
108.6
107
108
107.98
Low
Friday, November 21, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.1
52.8
52.72
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
52
51.5
50.6
50.85
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
48.8
48.2
49
49.00
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.1
53.1
52.8
53.10
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.8
48.2
48.8
48.97
Low
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
3.6
4.2
1.1
2.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-231.8
-234.6
-280
-267.88
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
0.7
3
-0.7
-0.65
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.1
3
3.1
3.08
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
3
2.9
3.1
3.08
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
2.9
3
3.00
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.13
Low
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
-0.31
-0.13
11.98
Medium
04:00
JP
Balance of Trade
-
-0.31
-0.13
11.98
Medium
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
3.3
-0.7
-0.65
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
4.2
-0.9
2.5
3.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
-0.31
-0.13
11.98
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
11.6
1.6
5.4
4.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
4.2
1.1
2.05
Medium
Monday, November 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
2.6
-1.5
2.2
2.53
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
2.5
-2.3
1
0.70
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
3.8
-1.6
3.4
3.45
Low
Sunday, November 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
2.8
2.9
3.3
3.30
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-1.8
2.3
-2.5
-2.40
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.10
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.4
0.6
-0.6
-0.57
High
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1
0.8
0.4
-26001.73
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-0.4
0.6
-0.6
-0.58
High
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
-1.8
2.3
-2.5
-2.67
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan Unemployment Rate Holds Steady at 2.60 Percent December 2025 Unemployment Rate Remains Unchanged The unemployment rate measures the share of the labor force actively seeking work but unable to find employment. For Japan (JP), December 2025’s unemployment rate stayed flat at 2.60%, matching both the previous month and market expectations. Fast facts: the year-over-year rate is steady at 2.60%, there was no change from November 2025, and the data was released on January 29, 2026. This stability signals a tight labor market that has plateaued after months of gradual improvement. According to economist Hiroshi Tanaka of Morgan Stanley, “Japan’s labor market shows resilience amid global uncertainty, but the lack of further decline in unemployment suggests limited near-term wage pressure.” The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its cautious monetary stance as inflation remains below target and labor slack is minimal. Market reaction was muted, with USDJPY and equity indices reflecting expectations of steady conditions.
December 2025’s unemployment rate (2.60%) was unchanged from November 2025 (2.60%) and matched the 12-month average (2.60%). The last significant deviation was August 2025’s 2.30%, after which the rate returned to its prior range. The chart below visualizes this plateau, with minimal month-to-month volatility since September.
Compared to March 2025 (2.40%) and May-June 2025 (2.50%), the current level signals a stabilization rather than further tightening. The labor market’s resilience is evident, but the absence of improvement suggests limited slack reduction ahead.