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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Balance of Trade fell to -1,018M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Sri Lanka Balance of Trade fell to -1,018M in July 2026, released August 2026, down 189M from June's -829M reading. The reading missed the -880M consensus by 138M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -880.28M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -898.5M, vs -1,012.9M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 4th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1018
Actual
-880
Consensus
-829
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±223.9 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -749.25
Actual: -1,018
Error: +268.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Sri Lanka) was reported at -1,018.00 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -880.00 million by 138.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -829.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -842.86 million, ranging from -1,383.00 million to -420.00 million across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -938.33 million, down from the prior three at -937.87 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 258.80 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 134.52 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -734.00 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 223.90 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - LK
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About Balance of Trade — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1,018 M, consensus -880 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -829 M. Before that (May 2026): -968 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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