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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Balance of Trade climbed to -829M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Sri Lanka Balance of Trade climbed to -829M in June 2026, released July 2026, up 139M from May's -968M reading. The reading matched the -820M consensus. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1,175.5M, vs -770.1M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-829
Actual
-820
Consensus
-968
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±172.41 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -2,651.5
Actual: -968
Error: -1,683.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Sri Lanka) was reported at -829.00 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -820.00 million by 9.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -968.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -804.30 million, ranging from -1,383.00 million to -420.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1,042.33 million, down from the prior three at -794.27 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 273.96 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 135.06 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -611.17 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 172.41 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - LK
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About Balance of Trade — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -829 M, consensus -820 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -968 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -1,383 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - LK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | LK | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.10 | Low |
| 09:30 | LK | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.05 | Low |
| 09:30 | LK | Inflation Rate YoY | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | LK | Balance of Trade | -829 | -968 | -820 | -824.50 | Low |