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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Balance of Trade fell to -1,383M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Sri Lanka Balance of Trade fell to -1,383M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 503M from March's -880M reading. The reading missed the 920M consensus by 2,303M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -827.85M, vs -794.27M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 26 months.
Latest Release
-1383
Actual
920
Consensus
-880
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±172.41 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 967
Actual: -1,383
Error: +2,350
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Sri Lanka) was reported at -1,383.00 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 920.00 million by 2,303.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -880.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -740.98 million, ranging from -1,383.00 million to -420.00 million across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -937.87 million, down from the prior three at -911.87 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 278.49 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 148.08 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -886.17 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 172.41 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - LK
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About Balance of Trade — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1,383 M, consensus 920 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -879.7 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -776 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.